Three months down, three months to go.
Twenty-seven teams have played at least half of their schedules, and 50.6 percent of the overall docket is in the books. These baseball seasons grow up so quickly, don't they? As usual, let's begin the new month with a quick sweep across the major leagues.
In the opening installment of this monthly series, we focused on how teams were diverting from their preseason forecasts. Last month, we focused on how teams were slotting in terms of the upcoming trade deadline. This time around, we'll honor the midpoint of the season in the same way baseball does: by focusing our player mentions on the most deserving All-Star on each club -- regardless of whether he actually made a roster.
One thing to note: As was evident in my picks for the All-Star roster, my feeling is that players should be selected based on everything that has happened since the last All-Star Game, with a bit more emphasis on current-season results. Thus, you'll read a lot of reference to numbers over the past calendar year based on data from FanGraphs.
Before we get started, here's a glossary of terms to better understand the shifts in projections for every club:
Power rating: Schedule and run-differential adjusted win-loss record prorated for 162 games
Monthly change: Change in power rating since the end of May; teams are listed in order by this change
Current playoff probability: Percentage chance a team makes the postseason, based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule and each team's power rating
Probability entering month: Playoff probability at the beginning of the most recently completed month
Current temperature: Based on Bill James' formula for determining how "hot" or "cold" a team is at any given point in the schedule; 72° is average
Temperature entering month: Temperature at the beginning of the most recently completed month
Trade deadline recommendation: Classifies the "Buy, Hold and Sell" status of each team based on its current playoff probability. A "Hold" recommendation means that the team's ultimate direction has yet to be decided.
Note: Teams are ranked in order of month-to-month change in power rating from beginning of June to now.
1. Power rating: 72.0 (23) | Monthly change: 13.7
Current playoff probability: 5.1% | Probability entering June: 0.0%
Current temperature: 90.6° | Temperature entering June: 64.6°
Trade deadline recommendation: Sell
Lorenzo Cain has been Kansas City's best player this year, and with the Royals turning around their season in June, that's bad news for teams coveting the free-agent-to-be as an in-season roster jolt. In a universe manned only by Vulcans, the Royals would still be in sell mode because their underlying metrics still don't see a postseason run as very likely. But in a universe run by Klingons, the Royals have wormed their way back into possible buy mode. Qapla'!
2. Power rating: 82.2 (13) | Monthly change: 9.5
Current playoff probability: 12.9% | Probability entering June: 3.9%
Current temperature: 73.5° | Temperature entering June: 80.0°
Trade deadline recommendation: Hold
James Paxton had a rough June after missing much of May. During his first start of July, however, Paxton kinda-sorta flirted with a perfect game. Over the past calendar year, the only AL starter with a better fielding-independent ERA than Paxton's 2.83 has been Chris Sale.
3. Power rating: 101.3 (4) | Monthly change: 7.0
Current playoff probability: 99.5% | Probability entering June: 95.7%
Current temperature: 95.0° | Temperature entering June: 92.8°
Trade deadline recommendation: Buy
Paul Goldschmidt is having an MVP-caliber season for a Diamondbacks team that started to pick up momentum only in June. Over the past year, Goldschmidt has 29 homers, 107 RBIs, 35 steals and 132 runs scored.
4. Power rating: 61.9 (28) | Monthly change: 5.7
Current playoff probability: 0.0% | Probability entering June: 0.0%
Current temperature: 81.1° | Temperature entering June: 52.8°
Trade deadline recommendation: Sell
When the talent base begins with an MVP-level performance from Buster Posey, it's hard to believe the Giants could be as bad as they are. Even their recent surge has done nothing for their nonexistent playoff odds.
5. Power rating: 76.6 (18) | Monthly change: 5.5
Current playoff probability: 1.1% | Probability entering June: 0.3%
Current temperature: 64.8° | Temperature entering June: 80.7°
Trade deadline recommendation: Sell
Christian Yelich was Miami's best player last year, and Giancarlo Stanton has been the most consistent, with the possible exception of unsung catcher J.T. Realmuto. But the breakout first half of Marcell Ozuna trumps all of that.
6. Power rating: 90.4 (7) | Monthly change: 4.9
Current playoff probability: 92.5% | Probability entering June: 59.9%
Current temperature: 89.7° | Temperature entering June: 74.8°
Trade deadline recommendation: Buy
Jose Ramirez's breakout traces back to last year, and it is terrific that the fans recognized it by selecting him as a starter for this year's Midseason Classic. That he has become the most ASG-worthy pick on a roster with Francisco Lindor, Andrew Miller and Corey Kluber is quite a feat.
7. Power rating: 91.5 (6) | Monthly change: 3.2
Current playoff probability: 87.5% | Probability entering June: 68.6%
Current temperature: 99.3° | Temperature entering June: 92.7°
Trade deadline recommendation: Buy
With Mike Trout out of the mix, Mookie Betts gets the start he deserves. It would have been nice to have been able to shift, say, Aaron Judge to the DH slot (not that Corey Dickerson is undeserving). But there aren't that many full-time DHs anymore, and I'm not sure the spot needs its own classification in the balloting. Whatever the selection process, this much is true: Betts leads all players in WAR over the past calendar year, and in the field, nobody at any position does it better than Betts.
8. Power rating: 70.9 (24) | Monthly change: 3.2
Current playoff probability: 1.2% | Probability entering June: 0.3%
Current temperature: 57.8° | Temperature entering June: 62.9°
Trade deadline recommendation: Sell
One All-Star is probably an appropriate representation for the Pirates, but given my preference for a longer time frame of production, Ivan Nova would have been a good pick. He has a full one WAR advantage over every other Pirate over the past year, going 15-8 with a 3.18 ERA overall in that span.
9. Power rating: 74.9 (21) | Monthly change: 3.0
Current playoff probability: 1.7% | Probability entering June: 0.1%
Current temperature: 95.5° | Temperature entering June: 57.7°
Trade deadline recommendation: Sell
I picked Ender Inciarte as one of my starters, though that would mean moving Colorado's Charlie Blackmon to left. Inciarte has 210 hits over the past calendar year, scored 113 runs and provided elite defensive value as one of baseball's top center fielders. Plus, you might have noticed that the Braves exited June on a considerably hotter path than the one they entered it on. Their playoff odds, however, haven't changed much because of the gap between them and the Nationals in the division and between them and the NL West's wild-card front-runners, Arizona and Colorado.
10. Power rating: 107.9 (1) | Monthly change: 2.9
Current playoff probability: 100.0% | Probability entering June: 99.5%
Current temperature: 104.2° | Temperature entering June: 102.3°
Trade deadline recommendation: Buy
I don't know if Kenley Jansen was right to blame Dodgers fans for the fact that neither Corey Seager nor Justin Turner are starting in the All-Star Game, but he is right in believing that they should. For all the star power in L.A., it's Turner who is on pace to lead the Dodgers in WAR this season, and over the past year, he's tied with Seager.
11. New York Yankees
Power rating: 102.0 (3) | Monthly change: 2.6
Current playoff probability: 97.5% | Probability entering June: 94.9%
Current temperature: 52.3° | Temperature entering June: 75.4°
Trade deadline recommendation: Buy
One might think that because of my insistence on factoring the second half of last season into my ASG picks, I might steer away from Judge. You would be wrong. Judge is on pace for 10.7 WAR in 2017 -- a level of play that puts him so far above most major leaguers that he's a no-brainer based on that alone.
12. Power rating: 74.9 (20) | Monthly change: 2.5
Current playoff probability: 5.9% | Probability entering June: 2.9%
Current temperature: 69.3° | Temperature entering June: 76.0°
Trade deadline recommendation: Sell
Trout is the most deserving of all stars, and having him sit out this year's game makes the Midseason Classic a little anticlimactic. The reasoning is sound, of course, with Trout trying to get ready for the second half and the Angels very much in the AL wild-card mix. With Trout out, the Angels still have a bona fide All-Star performer in shortstop Andrelton Simmons, who was high up on many snub lists after the selection show.
13. San Diego Padres
Power rating: 53.1 (30) | Monthly change: 2.4
Current playoff probability: 0.0% | Probability entering June: 0.0%
Current temperature: 72.3° | Temperature entering June: 81.6°
Trade deadline recommendation: Sell
The Padres keep getting younger on the field, and they were actually less bad in June than they'd been through the end of May. Still, with no players in my Elite 60 list (top 60 players in WAR per 162 games), there really isn't a true deserving Padre for the ASG. For me, a better default pick than middle reliever Brad Hand would have been Yangervis Solarte, but it now looks like he's out until after the break because of his oblique injury.
14. Texas Rangers
Power rating: 86.8 (9) | Monthly change: 2.0
Current playoff probability: 44.5% | Probability entering June: 22.6%
Current temperature: 62.1° | Temperature entering June: 63.3°
Trade deadline recommendation: Hold
The Rangers' metrics-related outlook continues to look better than a record muddied by an MLB-worst 17 blown saves. If their bullpen had performed better in high-leverage spots, the Rangers would probably at least be protecting a lead for the second wild-card spot. A big reason for that has been the terrific season from shortstop Elvis Andrus, Texas's most deserving All-Star, though I went with Yu Darvish in my picks because of positional needs.
15. Houston Astros
Power rating: 103.7 (2) | Monthly change: 1.6
Current playoff probability: 100.0% | Probability entering June: 100.0%
Current temperature: 99.5° | Temperature entering June: 116.8°
Trade deadline recommendation: Buy
If this is the Astros in cruise-control mode, this is pretty scary. Houston is very well-represented in the All-Star Game. If I had to pick one Astro, it would be Jose Altuve. He is in a neck-and-neck race with Carlos Correa and George Springer to lead the club in WAR this season, so he gets the nod because of his slight edge when factoring in the second half of 2016.
16. Power rating: 79.4 (14) | Monthly change: 0.9
Current playoff probability: 16.9% | Probability entering June: 12.8%
Current temperature: 80.9° | Temperature entering June: 60.0°
Trade deadline recommendation: Hold
Carlos Martinez has been the Cardinals' best player both this season and over the past year, but Jedd Gyorko has been close enough that had the NL not been so deep at third base, he might have been on my team as well.
17. Detroit Tigers
Power rating: 78.7 (15) | Monthly change: 0.2
Current playoff probability: 5.7% | Probability entering June: 16.8%
Current temperature: 53.2° | Temperature entering June: 63.1°
Trade deadline recommendation: Sell
Some were wondering how I landed on Miguel Cabrera as my pick for the AL's starting first baseman. No, it wasn't a career-achievement pick. He leads all AL first basemen in WAR over the past year. I love me some Yonder Alonso, but there isn't a decisive enough edge in 2017 performance for me to reward him -- or Justin Smoak or Logan Morrison -- for a shorter time frame of success.
18. Power rating: 99.3 (5) | Monthly change: -0.4
Current playoff probability: 99.5% | Probability entering June: 99.6%
Current temperature: 68.3° | Temperature entering June: 97.5°
Trade deadline recommendation: Buy
Max Scherzer is on pace to lead the NL in WAR (8.4), which puts him in the conversation for more than a Cy Young award. He stands out even on a star-studded roster that joins the Dodgers as the only other team with five Elite 60 players.
19. Power rating: 66.2 (27) | Monthly change: -0.9
Current playoff probability: 0.3% | Probability entering June: 0.1%
Current temperature: 48.5° | Temperature entering June: 60.5°
Trade deadline recommendation: Sell
I deferred to my longer-timeline criteria when making my Athletics pick, while also trying to keep a semblance of positional balance. That's how I landed on Sean Manaea, who is third in 2017 WAR and second overall going back to last season. But the most deserving performer is probably slugger Khris Davis, who was edged out by the number of quality OF/DH selections elsewhere in the AL.
20. Chicago Cubs
Power rating: 82.3 (12) | Monthly change: -2.6
Current playoff probability: 27.2% | Probability entering June: 16.5%
Current temperature: 67.5° | Temperature entering June: 47.1°
Trade deadline recommendation: Hold
Considering that Kris Bryant won last year's NL MVP award, it's no surprise that he far and away leads the Cubs in WAR over the past year (6.9). He also leads Chicago based on just this season. Bryant is a Final Five candidate, so he might not end up a snub. But if he does, it would be a doozy of an overlook.
21. Power rating: 84.7 (10) | Monthly change: -3.1
Current playoff probability: 57.9% | Probability entering June: 71.0%
Current temperature: 75.0° | Temperature entering June: 71.0°
Trade deadline recommendation: Hold
Corey Knebel is a worthy All-Star and was my Brewers pick. Milwaukee seems to have been penalized all-around by having a couple of players in Jimmy Nelson and Travis Shaw who were even more deserving than Knebel but likely fell prey to positional needs and the requirement for each team to have a representative. In a just world, the Brewers would have multiple selections.
22. Tampa Bay Rays
Power rating: 84.5 (11) | Monthly change: -3.8
Current playoff probability: 35.4% | Probability entering June: 47.5%
Current temperature: 72.6° | Temperature entering June: 88.1°
Trade deadline recommendation: Hold
Again, Dickerson isn't a bad pick, even through the calendar-year prism I like to use. But Chris Archer has more WAR over the past year, with a 1.1 win edge on Dickerson, and in 2017. Archer should have been on the AL squad.
23. New York Mets
Power rating: 78.1 (16) | Monthly change: -4.5
Current playoff probability: 1.2% | Probability entering June: 2.6%
Current temperature: 83.5° | Temperature entering June: 71.2°
Trade deadline recommendation: Sell
As much as I like Michael Conforto, his recent fade and poor 2016 season work against him. Jacob deGrom has been the one Met to remain both healthy and productive for most of the past year.
24. Colorado Rockies
Power rating: 88.8 (8) | Monthly change: -4.6
Current playoff probability: 93.2% | Probability entering June: 93.7%
Current temperature: 44.8° | Temperature entering June: 67.9°
Trade deadline recommendation: Buy
This is kind of amazing: Over the past year, only eight National Leaguers rank higher in WAR than Nolan Arenado, but three of those guys are also third baseman: Justin Turner, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rendon. It's a hot time for the hot corner. For the Rockies as whole, however, the climate has turned ice cold.
25. Power rating: 59.4 (29) | Monthly change: -5.1
Current playoff probability: 0.0% | Probability entering June: 0.0%
Current temperature: 55.0° | Temperature entering June: 29.2°
Trade deadline recommendation: Sell
If he weren't injured, my default Phillie would have been Cesar Hernandez. But as it was, I held my nose and went with Pat Neshek, who ended up making the NL roster. In his last outing before that was announced, Neshek gave up three runs and took a loss against the Mets. It has been that kind of season in Philadelphia.
26. Cincinnati Reds
Power rating: 76.3 (19) | Monthly change: -6.1
Current playoff probability: 0.6% | Probability entering June: 7.9%
Current temperature: 62.1° | Temperature entering June: 51.5°
Trade deadline recommendation: Sell
As much as Zack Cozart is deserving of an NL roster spot, I would have taken Corey Seager as my starter. But as far as the Reds are concerned, no matter what timeline you're looking at, Joey Votto is head and shoulders above everybody else.
27. Power rating: 69.9 (25) | Monthly change: -8.5
Current playoff probability: 2.4% | Probability entering June: 14.2%
Current temperature: 68.0° | Temperature entering June: 52.9°
Trade deadline recommendation: Sell
The fact that the Orioles were a one-player team and that Jonathan Schoop ended up their pick instead of Manny Machado, well, that's a good example of why I prefer my approach. Even as it is, Machado is on pace to finish just 0.8 WAR behind Schoop, and when you factor in the last half of the 2016 season, the scale is violently tipped in Machado's favor.
28. Minnesota Twins
Power rating: 72.0 (22) | Monthly change: -8.5
Current playoff probability: 6.5% | Probability entering June: 20.6%
Current temperature: 57.0° | Temperature entering June: 61.3°
Trade deadline recommendation: Sell
I had two Twins on my roster but wanted three -- I thought Brian Dozier should be rewarded for both his decent start to this season and his huge finish to last season. But I didn't want to bump Miguel Sano, and Dozier got lost in meeting all of the various roster parameters. I gave Sano the nod for his 2017 production, which dwarfs all other Twins, including fellow ASG selection Ervin Santana.
29. Power rating: 77.6 (17) | Monthly change: -9.7
Current playoff probability: 3.6% | Probability entering June: 35.5%
Current temperature: 69.1° | Temperature entering June: 62.5°
Trade deadline recommendation: Sell
Most White Sox candidates either had a tepid second half of last season or an unconvincing start to this season. The one standout throughout has been Jose Abreu, who is tied for second (with Logan Morrison) behind Miguel Cabrera for most WAR at first base over the past year.
30. Power rating: 68.8 (26) | Monthly change: -13.0
Current playoff probability: 0.2% | Probability entering June: 12.5%
Current temperature: 44.7° | Temperature entering June: 103.5°
Trade deadline recommendation: Sell
Remember how cold the Blue Jays were to start the season? Then remember how hot they got to revive their hopes? Well, June saw the early return of winter in Toronto, a fact more depressed by the fact that the roster was healthier than it had been. Josh Donaldson's early injury trouble means that the closest thing to a consistent, All-Star-ish performance going back to last season was probably from starter Marcus Stroman. And yet I went with Justin Smoak for his 2017 breakout. Hey, it's a good story