Well, the All-Star break and non-waiver trade deadline are behind us. We are officially into the dog days of August as we near the stretch run of a playoff race that already seems to have a lot of components set. As always, we use the early part of the new month to look at how teams evolved over the previous month.
This is the fourth installment of the series. In the opener, we focused on how teams were diverting from their preseason forecasts. In June, we focused on how teams were slotting in terms of the upcoming trade deadline. In July, we looked at All-Star candidates.
This time around, we look at where each team stands in terms of its current roster. To that end, we'll introduce a new metric, called Roster Rating, which represents the estimated 162-game win value of each team's roster as it stands. It was calculated using a blend of season results to date and longer-term forecasts. Now that the deadline is past, this seems like a good time to make these assessments, especially as we retire the "Buy, Hold, Sell" recommendations until next season.
This is a ranking of how much each team's play has improved -- or suffered -- in the past month, not an overall ranking of the contenders (and pretenders).
Playoff contenders
Risers
1. Power rating: 80.8 (14) | Monthly change: 10.9
Current playoff probability: 14.5% | Probability entering month: 2.4%
Current temperature: 93.8° | Temperature entering month: 68.0°
Roster rating: 80.3 | Roster rank: 14
I have given up trying to explain this team or this organization, but I am pretty sure that Buck Showalter is a Hall of Fame manager.
2. Chicago Cubs
Power rating: 92.8 (6) | Monthly change: 10.7
Current playoff probability: 88.1% | Probability entering month: 27.2%
Current temperature: 96.6° | Temperature entering month: 67.5°
Roster rating: 96.6 | Roster rank: 5
Did we ever really doubt?
3. Power rating: 76.9 (20) | Monthly change: 6.7
Current playoff probability: 27.7% | Probability entering month: 5.1%
Current temperature: 75.0° | Temperature entering month: 90.6°
Roster rating: 74.4 | Roster rank: 22
As great as the Royals' jump in playoff probability looks, they actually lost about 18 percent from that number by getting swept by the Orioles, one of the teams chasing them. Now they host surging Seattle and if the results in Baltimore are repeating, all that good work Kansas City did in making up for its slow start will have gone for naught. And the understandable decision to add at the deadline will not have worked out.
4. Power rating: 94.4 (5) | Monthly change: 4.1
Current playoff probability: 95.7% | Probability entering month: 92.5%
Current temperature: 79.7° | Temperature entering month: 89.7°
Roster rating: 98.4 | Roster rank: 3
The Indians have increasingly shown glimpses of being the dominant team we thought they were. As much as any contending team perceived to be underachieving, Cleveland is the one that should get better just by standing pat. That said, Andrew Miller's balky knee is a major concern.
5. Power rating: 83.7 (11) | Monthly change: 3.1
Current playoff probability: 17.8% | Probability entering month: 16.9%
Current temperature: 80.9° | Temperature entering month: 80.9°
Roster rating: 83.6 | Roster rank: 11
The Cardinals would be hard-pressed to ask for more from their starting rotation, but St. Louis' inaction at the deadline almost forces them to do just that. Given the overall weak market for position players, it's hard to believe St. Louis couldn't find an offensive upgrade.
6. Power rating: 90.2 (8) | Monthly change: 2.6
Current playoff probability: 85.6% | Probability entering month: 87.5%
Current temperature: 74.6° | Temperature entering month: 99.3°
Roster rating: 95.6 | Roster rank: 6
Here's a scary thought for the Yankees and everyone else competing with the Red Sox for playoff positioning. Remember all that concern over Boston's production at the infield corners? According to Bill James' batter temperature metric, the three hottest hitters in baseball are currently Eduardo Nunez, Christian Vazquez and Rafael Devers.
7. Power rating: 109.4 (1) | Monthly change: 2.1
Current playoff probability: 100.0% | Probability entering month: 100.0%
Current temperature: 116.4° | Temperature entering month: 104.2°
Roster rating: 106.0 | Roster rank: 1
This ranking is hilarious because of what it means. The Dodgers' inability to lose has been going on so long that despite their mammoth July, they didn't really make a statistical leap. They were great and just got a little more great. Then they went out and traded for Yu Darvish.
8. Power rating: 83.8 (10) | Monthly change: 0.8
Current playoff probability: 27.3% | Probability entering month: 12.9%
Current temperature: 85.1° | Temperature entering month: 73.5°
Roster rating: 83.7 | Roster rank: 10
The Mariners have been pitching like a playoff-caliber team for a few weeks now, and if their veteran hitters can get hot down the stretch, Seattle will end up as one of the AL's wild cards.
Fallers
1. Power rating: 90.7 (7) | Monthly change: -10.3
Current playoff probability: 90.6% | Probability entering month: 99.5%
Current temperature: 68.6° | Temperature entering month: 95.0°
Roster rating: 85.0 | Roster rank: 9
The Diamondbacks' pitching was less able to prop up a hit-and-miss offense during July, and while Zack Godley looks more and more like the real deal with each outing, Arizona needs Robbie Ray to bounce back from his concussion sooner than later or the NL may yet wind up with a wild-card race.
2. Power rating: 96.4 (3) | Monthly change: -7.4
Current playoff probability: 92.8% | Probability entering month: 97.5%
Current temperature: 78.4° | Temperature entering month: 52.3°
Roster rating: 97.3 | Roster rank: 4
The Yankees are down here thanks to the funk they were in during the early part of July, but things are getting better fast and after the deadline, New York now has a roster that can compete with anybody down the stretch and into October.
3. Power rating: 79.6 (16) | Monthly change: -5.4
Current playoff probability: 11.1% | Probability entering month: 57.9%
Current temperature: 54.1° | Temperature entering month: 75.0°
Roster rating: 79.5 | Roster rank: 15
There has been no one overarching factor in the Brewers' rapid tumble out of first place, but even without any splashy deadline acquisitions, the Milwaukee roster looks good enough that if Arizona and/or Colorado falters, the Brew Crew might still make a run at the postseason.
4. Power rating: 84.7 (9) | Monthly change: -5.2
Current playoff probability: 87.9% | Probability entering month: 93.2%
Current temperature: 71.0° | Temperature entering month: 44.8°
Roster rating: 74.3 | Roster rank: 23
More and more, it looks as though the Rockies have been overachieving. But they remain in good shape in the wild-card race, especially if newly acquired catcher Jonathan Lucroy provides a boost at a spot where Colorado ranks dead last in WAR.
5. Power rating: 98.9 (2) | Monthly change: -4.1
Current playoff probability: 100.0% | Probability entering month: 100.0%
Current temperature: 65.5° | Temperature entering month: 99.5°
Roster rating: 99.5 | Roster rank: 2
Roster Rating omits injured players designated to be out for the season, which doesn't apply to anyone on the Astros. Nonetheless, the injuries have piled up the past few weeks, bringing Houston back into the pack of AL elite teams with Boston, Cleveland and, suddenly, New York.
6. Power rating: 95.5 (4) | Monthly change: -3.6
Current playoff probability: 99.8% | Probability entering month: 99.5%
Current temperature: 81.5° | Temperature entering month: 68.3°
Roster rating: 93.1 | Roster rank: 7
The Nationals seem to have long been settled into what figures to be the No. 2 spot in the NL playoff bracket, but with the Cubs' recent hot streak, suddenly that seed is up for grabs as the two teams prepare for a big weekend series at Wrigley Field.
7. Power rating: 81.7 (13) | Monthly change: -2.9
Current playoff probability: 31.2% | Probability entering month: 35.4%
Current temperature: 73.4° | Temperature entering month: 72.6°
Roster rating: 83.0 | Roster rank: 12
The Rays rank eighth in my metric for protecting leads (adjusted saves-plus-holds percentage) but are dead last in relief pitcher WAR, per Baseball-Reference.com. That's why the Rays were so aggressive at adding depth to their relief corps during the deadline period.
Non-contenders
Risers
1. Power rating: 69.4 (26) | Monthly change: 11.9
Current playoff probability: 0.0% | Probability entering month: 0.0%
Current temperature: 76.1° | Temperature entering month: 55.0°
Roster rating: 70.5 | Roster rank: 27
I guess you could view it as the Phillies' improved play does nothing but harm their chances at landing the top pick in the next draft. But the offense has been legitimately good in recent weeks because young players like Nick Williams, Maikel Franco, Tommy Joseph and, especially, Odubel Herrera have started to match talent with production. That is great news for Phillies phans.
2. Power rating: 63.9 (29) | Monthly change: 10.2
Current playoff probability: 0.0% | Probability entering month: 0.0%
Current temperature: 79.3° | Temperature entering month: 72.3°
Roster rating: 63.9 | Roster rank: 29
This team has no business being as competitive as it has been for most of the season, which suggests that if and when San Diego's system starts to stock its big league roster with productive players, the Padres will be in good hands with manager Andy Green.
3. Power rating: 81.8 (12) | Monthly change: 6.4
Current playoff probability: 4.0% | Probability entering month: 1.1%
Current temperature: 89.4° | Temperature entering month: 64.8°
Roster rating: 74.8 | Roster rank: 21
Only four teams rank in the top 10 in both infield and outfield WAR: Miami, Cleveland, Houston and Tampa Bay. On top of that, led by underrated star catcher J.T. Realmuto, the Marlins lead the majors in WAR from catchers. If only they had a little bit of pitching.
4. Power rating: 71.3 (24) | Monthly change: 4.6
Current playoff probability: 0.2% | Probability entering month: 0.3%
Current temperature: 71.1° | Temperature entering month: 48.5°
Roster rating: 72.8 | Roster rank: 26
The A's are again rebuilding, but they have stayed competitive enough on the field that it's far from out-and-out tanking. And if you're looking for a reason to watch an Oakland game, I have a really good one: Matt Chapman playing third base.
5. Power rating: 64.5 (28) | Monthly change: 3.2
Current playoff probability: 0.0% | Probability entering month: 0.0%
Current temperature: 48.4° | Temperature entering month: 81.1°
Roster rating: 75.6 | Roster rank: 18
The Giants rank in the bottom three in WAR at five different positions in the field -- second base, third base and all three outfield spots. If the Giants aren't going to rebuild, they've got a lot of work to do this offseason.
6. Power rating: 75.5 (21) | Monthly change: 3.1
Current playoff probability: 1.2% | Probability entering month: 0.2%
Current temperature: 80.7° | Temperature entering month: 44.7°
Roster rating: 81.8 | Roster rank: 13
The Jays' pitching has been solid enough that if the offense were still elite, we'd be talking about Toronto in a much different light. Now the question becomes whether the Jays can shore up those weak lineup spots during the window that their veteran pitching remains competitive.
7. Power rating: 77.9 (18) | Monthly change: 2.9
Current playoff probability: 8.5% | Probability entering month: 5.9%
Current temperature: 79.3° | Temperature entering month: 69.3°
Roster rating: 77.2 | Roster rank: 17
It's hard to get too excited about any team with so many glaring holes, but the fact of the matter is that if the Angels could get something like average production from their non-elite players, then Mike Trout and Andrelton Simmons by themselves might provide enough impact production to keep the Angels on the fringe of the wild-card chase.
8. Power rating: 72.9 (22) | Monthly change: 1.2
Current playoff probability: 0.4% | Probability entering month: 1.2%
Current temperature: 56.1° | Temperature entering month: 57.8°
Roster rating: 77.9 | Roster rank: 16
The Pirates' recent trajectory isn't done justice by these numbers. Pittsburgh entered the month cold, and exited it the same. However, in between there was a spike of success that got everyone a little excited. But the Pirates have settled back into the middle, which is probably what they've been all along.
9. Power rating: 79.7 (15) | Monthly change: 0.8
Current playoff probability: 4.6% | Probability entering month: 5.7%
Current temperature: 77.6° | Temperature entering month: 53.2°
Roster rating: 75.4 | Roster rank: 19
The Tigers continue to just kind of slog through the season, never rising to contention, but never joining the dregs. While management moved some key parts at the deadline, there is enough left for Detroit to continue this neither-here-nor-there trajectory through the rest of the season.
Fallers
1. Power rating: 62.1 (30) | Monthly change: -16.3
Current playoff probability: 0.0% | Probability entering month: 3.6%
Current temperature: 36.4° | Temperature entering month: 69.1°
Roster rating: 57.6 | Roster rank: 30
This is what this form of rebuilding looks like: a top-two minor league system, and a remaining big league roster bad enough to challenge for the top overall pick in next June's draft.
2. Power rating: 78.2 (17) | Monthly change: -7.4
Current playoff probability: 6.4% | Probability entering month: 44.5%
Current temperature: 58.5° | Temperature entering month: 62.1°
Roster rating: 75.2 | Roster rank: 20
For all their long-ball flash, the Rangers' offense has been a disappointing unit this season, compounding a season-long issue with the bullpen that culminated in the deadline-day decision to move Darvish.
3. Power rating: 68.7 (27) | Monthly change: -5.9
Current playoff probability: 0.0% | Probability entering month: 1.7%
Current temperature: 46.5° | Temperature entering month: 95.5°
Roster rating: 65.3 | Roster rank: 15
The Braves never could quite make a sustained run, but with the game's best system, using the rest of the season to transition guys like Ozzie Albies to the big leagues should keep Atlanta in the realm of the interesting.
4. Power rating: 71.4 (23) | Monthly change: -5.2
Current playoff probability: 0.0% | Probability entering month: 0.6%
Current temperature: 59.1° | Temperature entering month: 62.1°
Roster rating: 72.8 | Roster rank: 25
As bad as the Reds' starting pitching was last season, you wouldn't have thought it could get worse. But Cincinnati's 5.96 starter ERA is the seventh-worst figure of the division-play era (since 1969).
5. Power rating: 70.5 (25) | Monthly change: -1.3
Current playoff probability: 4.4% | Probability entering month: 6.5%
Current temperature: 51.3° | Temperature entering month: 57.0°
Roster rating: 73.6 | Roster rank: 24
The Twins never appeared to have the quality pitching depth you look for in a postseason candidate, but if their explosive offense could carry them, then perhaps Minnesota could have hit the deadline in buy mode. Instead, only one team hit fewer homers during July.
6. Power rating: 77.7 (19) | Monthly change: -1.1
Current playoff probability: 0.2% | Probability entering month: 1.2%
Current temperature: 57.0° | Temperature entering month: 83.5°
Roster rating: 85.2 | Roster rank: 8
The Roster Rating strongly supports the direction the Mets seem to be taking, which is that the 2017 season may be lost, but the 2018 season is worth building up for.