The best team in baseball meets the squad that does even years better than anyone. Who has the edge as Jon Lester and the Cubs host Johnny Cueto and the Giants in Game 1?
Go inside the numbers and matchups that will decide Friday's game, and then vote for which team will win at the bottom of the page.
Inside the pitching matchup
When Cueto is on the mound: Few pitchers are as fun to watch as Cueto, with the twists and turns in his delivery and his five-pitch arsenal. One of the few big-ticket free agents from last winter who delivered on his contract, Cueto went 18-5 with a 2.79 ERA and ranked third in the NL in innings pitched.
Of his pitches -- four-seamer, two-seamer, changeup, cutter, slider -- the changeup is the one that rates as a big strikeout pitch, with a 35 percent K rate. He throws it only 23 percent of the time with two strikes, however, while throwing one of his fastballs 50 percent. He does get a high rate of grounders with both his four-seamer and two-seamer, preferring to throw inside to righties while painting the outside corner against lefties. With all the Cubs' left-handed and switch-hitters, I wonder if we'll see the changeup a little more often, especially deep in the count -- and the Cubs love to work deep counts.
Another key pitch has been his cutter, a pitch that Cueto seemed to lose the feel for when he struggled with the Royals last season. He throws it over 20 percent of the time and while it doesn't have a lot of movement, it has late movement, making it more of a weak contact pitch than a swing-and-miss offering. -- David Schoenfield
When Lester is on the mound: Lester's late surge made him a strong Cy Young contender, as he went 9-1 with 1.46 ERA over his final 12 starts. He gave up two runs or fewer in 24 of his 32 starts, although one of his bad outings came against the Giants in May when he gave up five runs in 2.2 innings.
Lester has made a notable change in his approach, throwing his fastball more than ever. He threw it 60 percent of the time, when he was under 50 percent two years ago. Lester has maintained his velocity pretty well through the year and at 32 still averaged 92 mph with his fastball, still above-average for a left-hander. The feeling was Lester had fallen in love too much with his cutter, although it has remained an effective pitch as batters hit just .212/.268/.302 against it. He still throws it about 20 percent of the time.
His curveball has become a two-strikeout wipeout pitch, with a K rate above 50 percent, and batters hit .092 against it in 96 plate appearances ending with the pitch. He doesn't throw it a lot -- about 10 per game -- but look for him to use it with two strikes against right-handers. Like all Cubs' pitchers, Lester certainly benefited from the team's excellent defense. He also led all qualified starters in strand rate at 84.9 percent as batters hit .173 against him with RISP. He allowed 28 stolen bases but had 13 caught stealings, a negligible rate for baserunners. -- Schoenfield
Player in the spotlight
Kris Bryant. The likely NL MVP after hitting .292/.385/.554 with 39 home runs 102 RBIs and a league-leading 121 runs, Bryant has settled nicely into the No. 2 spot in the order in front of Anthony Rizzo. Bryant hit two home runs in last year's playoffs but also hit .179 with 12 strikeouts in nine games. He needs to get on base in front of Rizzo if he's not mashing it over the fence. -- Schoenfield
What will decide tonight's game
Batters have just a .554 OPS against Cueto's changeup this season, which is third-best among NL pitchers with at least 500 thrown. Cubs slugger Anthony Rizzo could challenge Cueto on that pitch. He hit .367 on changeups this season, the third-best batting average against the pitch in the NL. His 1.065 OPS also ranked third in the NL. Rizzo was 1-for-3 against Cueto this season, with that only hit coming on one of two changeups he saw from Cueto (the other was the first pitch of that same plate appearance). -- ESPN Stats & Info
Choosing sides: Who will win?
Even though Jon Lester has averaged more pitches per start in September than Giants starter Johnny Cueto, there's little debate he has thrown less stressful pitches. The Giants used every ounce of energy just to make it to Chicago, but that balloon will burst Friday, at least for one night. Lester will repeat the success from his early September performance against the Giants where he no-hit them into the seventh inning while the Cubs squeak one more run across than their opponents for a close victory. -- Jesse Rogers
It really hasn't been that long since the Cubs have played meaningful baseball, but it sure feels like a long time. The Cubs have to slam the accelerator from the first pitch because with Madison Bumgarner looming in Game 3, there can be no re-acclimation period. But in Jon Lester, they've got the right postseason veteran on the mound. There will be some tenuous moments but the Cubs will take Game 1. -- Bradford Doolittle
The Cubs' real advantage in pitching won't start to emerge until we get to Game 2, because Johnny Cueto has the credentials to neutralize Jon Lester. He might not have the deep history of success in October that Lester or Madison Bumgarner do, but he dominated the New York Mets in Game 2 of the last World Series, so he'll have that to draw on. Plus, the Cubs have been sitting idle while the Giants will come in with momentum and, as tough as Lester is, his stuff will look pedestrian compared to the 99-mph fastballs they faced from Noah Syndergaard. The Giants will grab this one and put mega-pressure on the Cubs. -- Mark Saxon
Where the series stands
The Cubs won 16 more games than the Giants. In the wild-card era, teams with 15 or more than wins than their opponent is 9-1 -- with only the 116-win Mariners of 2001 losing to the 95-win Yankees. The Cubs are the heavy World Series favorites, but if they split these first two games, Madison Bumgarner looms in the distance for Game 3. -- Schoenfield