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UFC 218 Cheat Sheet -- Max Holloway vs. Jose Aldo II

Max Holloway and Jose Aldo square off Saturday at UFC 218 in a rematch from their July bout. ESPN.com Illustration

The UFC hits Little Caesars Arena in Detroit this weekend for a UFC 218 pay-per-view event.

Original plans called for a featherweight title fight between Max Holloway and Frankie Edgar, but Edgar was forced to pull out due to injury.

In steps former champ Jose Aldo, who lost the title to Holloway five months ago. The Brazilian great will attempt to make the most of an immediate rematch, which he felt he deserved anyway.

In the co-main event, veteran heavyweight Alistair Overeem will try to solidify a future title shot as he takes on rising contender Francis Ngannou.

ESPN's Cheat Sheets are here to break down Saturday's storylines and predict the winner for this UFC 218 fight.


Max Holloway (18-3) vs. Jose Aldo (26-3), Featherweight Championship

Odds: Hollloway -290; Aldo +245

Aldo's dominant reign as a UFC champion began in Detroit, where he was crowned the promotion's first featherweight titleholder during a ceremony in 2010.

Perhaps his final stand will take place in Detroit as well.

Not that Aldo's career is even close to a collapse -- but in terms of returning to the dominant force he once was, Saturday's rematch against Holloway may be his final shot.

Aldo, 31, laid waste to this division for nearly a decade, but he has been knocked out twice in three fights. Ahead of UFC 218, he has mentioned a renewed sense of motivation, which drew wonderment from the 25-year-old Holloway.

"You're in the wrong business, man," Holloway said. "There's another guy trying to seriously hurt you in there, and this guy is talking about motivation. It just blows my mind."

Holloway has a point, but also a different perspective. His title era has just begun, and back-to-back wins over the likes of Aldo would be quite a feat.

Aldo is from the perspective of someone who has defended a title seven times. Lost it to Conor McGregor in 2015. And regained it in 2016.

Aldo desperately wanted a rematch with McGregor last year, and harbored resentment toward the UFC when it didn't happen. It has been fair to question his motivation since, although he says it's back now, as a title challenger.

"I was such a dominant champ, I could never see myself in any other position," Aldo said through a translator. "Because of that, maybe I was in a comfort zone."

Earlier this year, Aldo expressed interest in starting a professional boxing career, and even spoke with the UFC about freezing his contract in order to pursue it. He has since stated he has four fights left on his deal, after which he intends to box.

Just those comments alone are reason to question Aldo's motivation in MMA, but he said he's fully committed to the UFC until that time comes.

"I know how to separate things," Aldo said. "In a perfect world, I would fight out my contract [in 2018]. I have fought four times in one year before, but I was younger. I would say within two years from now. But right now, my full focus is becoming champion again."


Fight breakdown

On Aldo's side, there are potentially two major differences between now and when he lost to Holloway five months ago in Brazil: Motivation and the ability to kick.

Aldo's complete lack of leg kicks was impossible to miss in the first meeting. Historically, it has been one of -- if not the best -- weapons in his arsenal. Facing an rangy opponent, who moves as well as Holloway does, it was shocking to see Aldo not kick. Well after the fight, his coach revealed that was due to injury.

How much does the fight change, if Aldo goes from essentially zero kicks to a healthy dose of them? Potentially a lot. In addition to his jab, Aldo's leg kicks aren't just great offense, they also help him dictate pace. And against an incredibly active (and youthful) offensive striker, that's important.

Holloway is more versatile on the feet and he showed that in the first meeting. It was also abundantly clear he felt comfortable with Aldo's power. Despite being older, Aldo's hand speed is still the best in the division and he connected several hard punches on Holloway, but the Hawaiian was completely unfazed by them.

Once Holloway felt Aldo's power and established a range that favored him (especially since Aldo wasn't throwing kicks) he began to have his way. Although both landed hard punches, Holloway's right hand was the one that put Aldo down and changed the course of the fight.

If Aldo's leg kicks are back, and as effective as we've seen them been throughout his career, it will be interesting to see what that does to Holloway's mobility and pace. Because if the champ loses any of his ability to move around the Octagon or wear on Aldo's gas tank with volume, it could be a very different fight.

Prediction: Holloway via TKO, fourth round