At the top of the UFC 235 card is a pair of title fights featuring some of the most recognizable names in the sport. In the main event, Jon Jones will defend the light heavyweight title against Anthony Smith. In the co-main event, Tyron Woodley puts the welterweight title on the line against Kamaru Usman. All four fighters have unique skill sets that translate into some impressive statistical accomplishments.
Several stylistic divergences could be the determining factor in each fight. We'll break down each category to fully understand the statistical differences most likely to define Saturday night's biggest fights.
UFC light heavyweight championship: Jon Jones (c) vs. Anthony Smith
Striking differential
Simply speaking, Jones is better at landing strikes and avoiding strikes from his opponents than Smith. In terms of striking differential, which is significant strikes landed per minute minus significant strikes absorbed per minute, Jones has a plus-2.32. On the other hand, Smith absorbs more than he lands on a per minute basis, which leaves him with a negative differential at minus-0.65.
Jones uses his reach very well to land from the outside. Unlike most fighters, who focus the majority of their attacks on the opponent's head, Jones has a much more diverse striking approach, landing 24 percent of his significant strikes to the body and 25 percent to the legs. In his UFC career, Jones has landed 4.43 significant strikes per minute. Smith has managed to land 3.49, which is slightly below average for ranked light heavyweights (4.16).
While Jones is a strong offensive fighter, his striking defense is what sets him apart from the rest of the division. He absorbs only 2.11 significant strikes per minute and avoids 65 percent of his opponents' attempted significant strikes. Both of those metrics are tops among ranked light heavyweights. Smith is much more hittable. He has absorbed 4.14 significant strikes per minute, which is the second-worst rate among the top 16 light heavyweights in the UFC.
In a pure striking contest, Jones has a decided advantage. To pull off an upset, Smith will need to find a way to make an impact when he does happen to land against Jones.
Knockdowns
The good news for Smith is he has been able to display above-average power during his second stint in the UFC. In his combined stats from his UFC and Strikeforce careers, Smith has scored 0.72 knockdowns per 15 minutes of fight time. However, in his past seven fights, he has dropped his opponents five times. During that stretch, his knockdown-per-15-minute rate has been 1.29.
This type of finishing power is one of the few statistical elements that heavily favors Smith over Jones. Unlike the challenger, the champion is not noted for his power striking ability. During his 19-fight UFC career, Jones has scored only five knockdowns, which equates to 0.28 knockdowns per 15 minutes.
Smith has been able to make a difference in his recent fights with his striking power. However, Jones has never been knocked down in UFC competition, and he holds an additional stylistic edge that could help him avoid Smith's power.
Takedowns/ground striking
Not only does Jones excel at taking fights to the ground, but he also does damage once the fight goes there. During his UFC career, he has landed 2.09 takedowns per 15 minutes, and he has scored at least one takedown in 17 of his 19 fights. On top of that, 20 percent of his landed significant strikes have come on the floor, and he has outlanded his opponents 232 to six in terms of significant ground strikes.
Smith would like to keep this fight standing. However, he has not shown advanced aptitude in that area. He has allowed 2.3 takedowns per 15 minutes and stopped only 47 percent of the takedown attempts against him. Once on the ground, Smith struggles to properly defend himself. All told, 33 percent of the significant strikes he has absorbed during his UFC/Strikeforce career have come on the floor, and his opponents have outlanded him 144 to 26 in that position.
If Jones decides to use his wrestling to avoid the knockout power of Smith, he will likely be successful. This strategy will not only neutralize Smith's best path to victory but also allow the champion to land at will with little risk of response from Smith.
UFC welterweight championship: Tyron Woodley vs. Kamaru Usman
Striking output
Usman and Woodley both land about half of their significant strike attempts. Usman lands 50 percent of his attempts, and Woodley lands 48 percent. However, Usman is a much more active striker. In his UFC career, he has attempted 7.75 significant strikes per minute, compared to 5.37 per minute for Woodley. This explains the disparity in effective striking between the two fighters. Thanks to that activity, Usman lands 3.93 significant strikes per minute, while Woodley lands 2.62. Even though Woodley has worked to become a serviceable striker, his landing rate is well below average for a ranked welterweight (3.54).
Woodley normally does a good job of picking his spots and exploding in flurries, but the welterweight champion has gotten himself into trouble with inactivity in the past. If he allows Usman to set the pace early in the fight, Woodley could find himself playing catch-up with the challenger and maybe letting the decision slip away.
Takedowns
Even though Usman has impressive striking numbers, he is reliant on his wrestling to set up that offense. In his UFC career, 41 percent of his landed blows have come on the ground. The good news for Usman is he has been a prolific takedown machine so far. He attempts 8.61 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time and lands 4.47, which is the second-highest rate among ranked welterweights.
Woodley, however, has always been a strong takedown defender. In his UFC/Strikeforce career, he has stopped 95 percent of his opponents' takedown attempts. He has not allowed a takedown since his decision loss against Rory MacDonald in 2014, and he forced Demian Maia to fail on 21 straight takedown attempts at UFC 214.
One position that could turn out to be the difference in this fight is the clinch. While both fighters are stingy takedown defenders, the fight will likely end up in the clinch. Even if they are successful at stopping each other's wrestling attack, the bout might play out along the cage, and this might end up favoring Woodley. In his UFC/Strikeforce career, 28 percent of his landed significant strikes have come in the clinch position, compared to only 13 percent for Usman. If this becomes a standing battle for clinch position, Woodley will likely be the one scoring the more impactful blows.
Knockdowns
Usman will be looking for takedowns to set up his best offense, but he will also be hoping to avoid the power striking of Woodley. It took the former wrestler some time to develop his knockout power, but Woodley certainly has it now. In his past 13 fights, Woodley has averaged 1.02 knockdowns per 15 minutes of fight time, and he has dropped 10 of his past 13 opponents.
Even though Usman has never been knocked down in his UFC career, it would be a wise strategy for him to look for takedowns and wrestle into the clinch to avoid the power from Woodley. It has been a difference-maker in the UFC welterweight division, and that might turn out to be the case once again on Saturday.