Victor Wembanyama is No. 1. Who else scores near the top of my stats-based NBA draft (Thursday, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN) projections for the class of 2023?
With the Denver Nuggets crowned as champions, attention now shifts to the offseason, starting with the draft. The Nuggets' roster, featuring three starters they drafted (including Finals MVP Nikola Jokic in the second round) plus a contributor taken in the first round this past June (Christian Braun), is a testament to the power of the draft to shape franchises.
My projections translate performance in NCAA Division I and other levels to an NBA equivalent, then adjust for age and position to project value over a player's next five seasons. Lastly, I factor in ESPN's top 100 prospect rankings for the best consensus projection. (For more on how my projections work and past examples, see here.)
Here are my 2023 projections, which have a different look from my initial top 30 from March because seven of those players either withdrew from the draft or never declared in the first place.
Note: There are no projections for players from Overtime Elite (OTE), including Amen and Ausar Thompson, who both are in the top five of ESPN's top 100 prospects.
1. Victor Wembanyama
Metropolitans 92
F/C
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 4
Consensus: 3.9 WARP
Although the NCAA, G League and OTE prospects have been preparing for the draft for months, Wembanyama played his last game for Metropolitans 92 on Thursday as they lost the series, 3-0, to AS Monaco in the French Pro A league finals.
Wembanyama's stats-only projection is very good -- seventh best among No. 1 picks since 2006 -- but doesn't quite match the "best prospect since LeBron" hype.