Ask any NBA team executive or player agent, "What contract is the toughest to negotiate?" and both will point to rookie extensions.
These deals differ from free agency, where the market plays a role in how much teams are willing to offer; rookie extensions can only go up to five years for $224 million. And unlike in free agency, when an opposing team can sign a player with cap space, the only deadline a team faces is 6 p.m. ET on Monday.
Factor in a 2025 offseason where only the Brooklyn Nets are projected to have more than $30 million in cap space, and there's a reason a growing number of young players are willing to lock in guaranteed money in an extension amid the heavy restrictions facing teams via the new apron rules in the collective bargaining agreement.
Seven players signed rookie extensions a year ago at the deadline. Out of those players, only Jaden McDaniels had an initial salary greater than $20 million. This year, 20 players are currently eligible to extend by the Oct. 21 deadline. Four players from the 2021 draft -- Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, Scottie Barnes and Franz Wagner -- have signed rookie extensions. Those four signed in the first week of free agency for the maximum.
With the Oct. 21 deadline approaching, we examine 10 key eligible players on rookie deals -- explaining why an extension will or won't happen -- and propose a suitable offer for each one.
We then detail where four notable veterans -- Kevin Durant, Mikal Bridges, Jaren Jackson Jr. and De'Aaron Fox -- stand on extensions.
And lastly, we check on nine teams facing a key roster decision ahead of Monday's deadline to trim rosters to 15 players.
Jump to a section:
Major rookie extensions
Veteran deals to watch
Nine teams with key roster choices
Major rookie extension decisions
Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks
Why an extension could get done: There are three reasons:
The Dejounte Murray trade to New Orleans has given Atlanta the financial runway to extend Johnson. With Murray gone and center Clint Capela set to become a free agent in 2025, Atlanta is well positioned below the luxury tax.
Johnson's upside. In addition to his points-per-game uptick, Johnson shot 36% on 3-pointers last season, up from 29% in 2022-23 and 23% in his rookie season. He also shot 66% in transition last season, eighth best among players with at least 120 attempts, per Second Spectrum.
Atlanta has a track record of rookie extensions. Since GM Landry Fields joined the front office in October 2020, Atlanta has signed a player to a rookie extension in each of the past three offseasons (Trae Young, Kevin Huerter, De'Andre Hunter and Onyeka Okongwu).
Why it might not: Both sides might not be willing to sacrifice. Going off 2023-24 alone, Johnson -- who joined Nikola Jokic, Victor Wembanyama, Bam Adebayo, Luka Doncic, Evan Mobley, Ben Simmons, Alperen Sengun and Josh Giddey as the only players over the past 10 years to average 17 points, 9 rebounds and 4 assists per 75 possessions through their first three seasons -- should have received the maximum five-year, $224 million extension at the start of free agency.
The only players on that list who did not receive a max extension were Giddey and Sengun, both of whom are eligible now. Last season, Johnson nearly tripled his points per game to 16.0, the second-largest jump among those to play at least 50 games in each season, trailing only the Nets' Cam Thomas. In the 26 games Johnson missed last season, Atlanta went 9-17.
The counterargument: The 2023-24 season was too small of a sample to reward Johnson with a lucrative contract. In his first two seasons in Atlanta, Johnson averaged 2.4 and 5.6 points, respectively. He also averaged just 49 games in his first three seasons.
What I would offer: Five years, $148 million. The first year of the extension starts at $33.7 million, and it declines to $25.5 million in the last season. Not including the 2025 unprotected first from the Los Angeles Lakers, Atlanta is $16 million below the luxury tax after the extension. The new contract is a combination of three recent contracts: Jalen McDaniels, Kyle Kuzma and Jerami Grant.