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          Olgs' NBL Notebook: All eyes on the Phoenix, Sydney's enforcer deserves more praise

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          JackJumpers win a thriller in OT over Wildcats (1:44)

          Milton Doyle's incredible buzzer-beating three highlights a stunning victory for Tasmania in overtime. (1:44)

          • Olgun Uluc, ESPN Basketball Insider
          Oct 7, 2024, 12:14 AM

          Every week, ESPN's Olgun Uluc runs through what's catching his eye across the NBL, and takes you inside the conversations trickling around the Australian basketball ecosystem. This week, he looks at the mounting pressure on the Phoenix, Aron Baynes' NBL future, and why Sydney's enforcer deserves more praise.

          All eyes on the Phoenix

          You've heard the line a lot: let's give it until the FIBA break.

          The November FIBA window is generally at a point in the regular season where there's enough sample size to make informed decisions. If you're going to make a seismic change, you generally do it when that time of year rolls around.

          There's also an element of it being a lengthy amount of time -- roughly two weeks -- so there's ample opportunity to remedy issues; or, if a significant decision is made, there are enough reps available to implement new people or schemes.

          That window is well over a month away, but the South East Melbourne Phoenix are in an interesting part of their regular season, where they have a nine-day break between their last game and their upcoming matchup against the Brisbane Bullets in Round 4. That's a FIBA-window-like amount of time, where they're stewing on an 0-4 start to the season. It's a good opportunity for the Phoenix to refine their schemes on both ends, but it's also providing the team's decision-makers a gap in the schedule to think about both the short and long-term future of the franchise.

          There's very real, mounting pressure on head coach Mike Kelly, and his role is being observed closely, according to those familiar with the situation.

          There's an awareness of a less-than-ideal schedule to begin the season, but the Phoenix are bottom-three in both offence and defence, per RealGM, with barely any positive indicators to take away from their first four games.

          Kelly is in the final year of his original two-year deal with the Phoenix.

          All of the questions most onlookers raised ahead of the preseason have seemingly come to fruition. There's the clunky offensive fit with Derrick Walton Jr. and Nathan Sobey on the floor together, the defensive personnel on the team not being conducive to being above average on that end of the floor, and a lack of frontcourt depth. The Phoenix's defence is right about where most of us expected, while the lack of cohesion on the offensive end has been somewhat surprising, given the talent on the roster.

          Saturday evening's matchup between the Phoenix (0-4) and the Brisbane Bullets (0-3) will be fascinating, for all the wrong reasons. We're entering jobs-on-the-line territory.

          Baynes won't be signing anywhere

          Ever since Aron Baynes told multiple outlets -- including ESPN -- during HoopsFest that he was leaving the door open for his professional playing career to continue, speculation naturally began to ramp up.

          "I'm not labelling anything," Baynes told ESPN.

          "My body feels good. I love playing the game. It's just, right now, I'm focused on my family and being there with my kids. Just being dad right now. Just enjoying not having to be anywhere at any particular time, apart from school drop off and school pickup.

          "Right now, nothing labeled; just, body feels really good... I'm moving well. We'll just see how it goes."

          There are teams around the NBL with a clear need for a centre, so the idea of inserting one of the best bigs in Australian basketball history does make some sense.

          It won't be happening, though.

          Baynes is not putting consideration into playing with an NBL team, his agent Daniel Moldovan told ESPN over the weekend.

          The 37-year-old has other commitments which take playing in the NBL off the table.

          Baynes played with the Brisbane Bullets over the 2023-24 NBL season, averaging 7.3 points and 4.3 rebounds per game.

          Something to track: Perth's travel

          The Perth Wildcats are in a precarious point of their schedule.

          John Rillie's team won their regular season opener at HoopsFest, but have since lost three straight games: home losses to Sydney and Melbourne, and an overtime defeat on the road in Tasmania.

          That loss to the JackJumpers was on Sunday afternoon -- without Tai Webster (calf) and Dylan Windler (achilles) -- and the Wildcats aren't going back to Perth; they're heading straight to Cairns for Thursday's matchup with the Taipans. The nature of being a team based in Perth or New Zealand means that the team has to get creative with its travel schedule, and being on the road for that length of time can naturally be a draining exercise. It's especially so when you're 1-3, going up against a Taipans team -- in Cairns -- that's won three straight games, including a high-quality victory in Melbourne.

          The positive news for the Wildcats is that there's an expectation that both Webster and Windler return to the lineup for Thursday's game against the Taipans; still, the prospect of potentially dropping to 1-4 ahead of another road game -- this time, in New Zealand -- is concerning.

          The Wildcats had a slow start to last season before putting together an impressive back-half of their campaign, but an early hole is never something a team wants to fall into.

          It's worth putting some respect on Keli's game

          The first thing one notices when watching Keli Leaupepe play is obviously his size. He has what appears to be a cartoonishly jacked frame for a basketball player, and that naturally translates to strength on the court.

          "It's a great guy to have on your team, I'll tell you that much," Leaupepe's Sydney Kings teammate, Xavier Cooks, told ESPN.

          "Each and every day, after the warmups, he's always ready to go, super physical. He's the kind of guy where, you're walking to get a drink and he'll come and bump you for no reason."

          The strength part of his game is undeniable, but the actual reason he's able to fit in so well with the Kings is because of the finesse he brings to the table. The 6'6 big was a 37.8 percent three-point shooter over his four seasons at Loyola Marymount, shooting 3.5 attempts or more from downtown over his last three years in college. He'd been slow to show that in the NBL, but broke out in Round 3 against the Bullets, dropping 22 points, including shooting 2-of-4 from beyond the three-point line.

          There's a passing element to his game that he showed in college and should translate to the NBL sooner than later, while we've already seen glimpses of a soft touch around the paint.

          The shooting and touch makes him a natural fit next to Cooks in the Kings' starting lineup, while the strength and force he plays fills a need for Brian Goorjian's team.

          "He's awesome to play with," Cooks said.

          "He's a real student of the game, really learning on this team. Especially the way we play, which is positionless. He's been all ears recently, just trying to learn, especially in the huge role he's playing for this team. It's awesome that he's really applying himself."

          The idea of Leaupepe as an enforcer is very real and the thing that immediately catches the eye, but the impressive skill-level is something we should never overlook.

          My favourite plays of the week

          You should never lose Dejan Vasiljevic in the half-court, but especially with the start he's had to this season. He's shooting 50 percent from downtown -- on 6.0 attempts a game -- so this is a nice three-man action to get him an open look against the Phoenix.

          Armstrong is elite at getting his defender in jail here.

          This play fell under the radar. At any level of basketball, a half-court alley-oop is an incredible play to actually pull off. It's a perfect pass from Shea Ili, and really impressive athleticism from Marcus Lee.

          To put this pass right in Bul Kuol's shooting pocket, while sprinting at that speed and a defender in front of you ready to take a charge, is extremely difficult. Xavier Cooks is playing at another level right now.

          Milton Doyle's ability to stay calm and poised in the clutch remains remarkable. This is just too clean of a look for him.