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2023 NFL mock draft: Todd McShay's early first-round predictions for 31 picks

illustration by ESPN

Sure, the 2023 NFL draft is still more than four months away, but I'm starting to get excited about this class. What better way to heat up the conversation than dropping my first mock draft of the season? Let's predict how first-round picks will fall, where the top quarterbacks will land and which top prospects will be early selections.

Obviously, there's a lot we still don't know. There are still a few more weeks to the 2022 NFL regular season, and 43 bowls lie between us and college football's offseason. All-star events, pre-draft workouts and interviews will then follow, and that means plenty of risers and fallers. NFL teams are already building their boards, but their needs and evaluations will change right up until April 27, when the league descends on Kansas City for Round 1.

Oh, and there's the matter of the draft order, which won't be totally set until the clock hits zeros in Super Bowl LVII in February. For now, we're relying on ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), which projected the order based on simulations of the rest of the season (through Sunday's Week 14 games). And remember, there will be only 31 first-round picks after the Dolphins were stripped of their selection because of tampering violations.

Let's get to it. Here is my current prediction of how the first round of the 2023 draft will play out. Be sure to check out our "SportsCenter" mock draft special for more on the mock's selections.

See more:
Rankings | Big questions

1. Houston Texans (1-11-1)