As a rookie in 2016, Jared Goff had one of the worst quarterback seasons in recent NFL history. He averaged a minuscule 3.75 net yards per pass and threw only five touchdown passes in 205 attempts. In Football Outsiders' advanced stats, which go back to the 1986 season, Goff's passing DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) of minus-74.8 percent below average was the worst ever for a quarterback with at least 200 pass attempts.
Most fans wrote off Goff after his horrible rookie year. But the Football Outsiders QB Hope Index did not.
We introduced the QB Hope Index last year to look at what variables help determine the odds that a quarterback can become a long-term, successful NFL starter. The goal was to figure out when we needed the patience to let a starter develop. After how many years of bad play do we give up on a young quarterback, and how do we know not to give up too soon?
Last year, we gave Goff a QB Hope Index of 22 percent. Despite that awful rookie performance, Goff was still a No. 1 pick, and that's usually a player who develops more often than a lower-round pick. Goff was also a bit young for his class, turning 22 halfway through his rookie year. And he had been well-projected out of college by the Football Outsiders' QBASE college quarterback forecast.