There have been some great defenses in recent NFL history, but it's hard to remember a defense that has dominated early games like this year's New England Patriots. The Pats didn't allow an offensive touchdown until the third quarter of the fourth game of the year. Opponent have just 4.1 yards per play, with 10 turnovers. The Jets in Week 3 had only 105 net yards and just six first downs.
How does the Patriots' start compare to other great defensive starts in NFL history? We looked at the first four games of each season using our DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) ratings. DVOA breaks down play-by-play to look at how well teams play, adjusted for situation and opponent (explained more here). We have that play-by-play broken down back to 1986.
These numbers include adjustments for opponents. However, it's important to note that the adjustments are only at 40% strength because it's still early in the season. That's true for the adjustments in the Patriots' rating, but also the adjustments in the ratings of all the other teams we analyzed. And some of these other teams also picked on bad teams early.
Let's take a look at the top 10 defensive starts through four games, going back to 1986. What did these defenses do the rest of the year, and what can we learn about the Patriots and where they might be headed for the rest of the season?
10. 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Through Week 4: 3-1, -34.2% defensive DVOA
Final: 12-4 (won Super Bowl), -31.8% defensive DVOA (1st)
Top stars: DE Simeon Rice, DT Warren Sapp, MLB Derrick Brooks, SS John Lynch
The Bucs lost their first game of the year, 26-20 in overtime to New Orleans. That Saints total was the most points the Bucs would give up in a game all season. They allowed only 21 points combined in Weeks 2-4. The Ravens and Bengals each gained less than 200 yards against them; the Rams gained 358 yards but also turned the ball over four times.
Tampa Bay did not slow down at all after its hot start. For the season, the Bucs led the league in fewest points, yards and yards per play. They had six different games with four takeaways. In the playoffs, they had two different games with five takeaways, including the Super Bowl win over the Raiders.
One significant similarity between the Bucs and this year's Patriots: the 2002 Buccaneers had the league's easiest schedule of opposing offenses. However, Tampa Bay didn't get any games against that year's version of this year's Dolphins, the expansion Houston Texans (who had the worst offensive DVOA in history). The Bucs' early schedule was not as easy as New England's, with only Cincinnati and St. Louis among the bottom-five offenses after four weeks.