It's time to prognosticate. After months of going back and forth, watching 2023 tape and crunching the numbers, I'm ready to commit. This week, I'm making my annual selections for the NFL teams most likely to improve and decline in 2024. After hitting the improvement side Monday, this piece evaluates the other side of the coin.
I've been doing some version of this feature for ESPN going back through the 2017 season. Over that time frame, the results have been pretty good! Twenty-seven of the 33 teams I've picked to decline have produced worse records the following season. Those teams declined by an average of 3.3 wins per 17 games. (Much of the data for this column dates back as far as 1989, which means a lot of weird numbers after adjusting for the 17-game slate.)
Last year's column went 3-1, although it didn't lack for drama. The Giants and Vikings collapsed quickly, as the two 2022 playoff teams failed to keep up their luck in close games and fell from a combined 22-11-1 mark to 13-21. The Eagles got off to a hot start, but their late-season collapse landed them three wins below their 2022 total.
More: Barnwell picks five teams likely to improve
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The Steelers, though, managed to defy the odds. Appearing on the list for the second consecutive year, many of the concerns I had about them heading into the season turned out to be true. They just didn't matter, though. Mike Tomlin managed to will a team with three different starting quarterbacks to a 10-7 record and an AFC playoff berth. In all, last year's improve and decline columns went a combined 7-1, which we'll take any time.
After going from 9-7-1 to 9-8 and then 10-7 the past three seasons, you would think the Steelers have earned their way off the decline list. Well, whether it's because I'm foolish or stubborn, guess where this year's list begins?
Jump to a team that ...
... has to miss the playoffs one of these seasons, right?
... could bench its quarterback by December
... dominated the regular season a year ago
... looked old, overmatched and out of ideas last season
... has a high ceiling but low floor because of its roster