It's time to prognosticate. After months of going back and forth, watching 2023 tape and crunching the numbers, I'm putting my commitments down on digital paper. Over the next two days, I'll make my annual selections for the NFL teams most likely to improve and most likely to decline in 2024. I'll focus on the positive side of the ledger below before hitting the teams on the decline side Tuesday.
I've been doing some version of this feature in picking specific teams to improve and decline for ESPN going back through the 2017 season. Over that time frame, the results have been pretty good! Twenty-seven of the 33 teams I've picked to improve in this space have come through and produced better win-loss records than they had in the prior season. Those teams have improved by an average of 3.3 wins per 17 games. (Much of the data for this column dates back as far as 1989, which means a lot of weird numbers after adjusting for the 17-game slate.)
More: Barnwell picks five teams likely to decline
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Last year's column went 4-0. The Browns and Rams were two teams that took unexpected trips to the postseason, while the Broncos and Bears nearly doubled their combined win total. The four teams went from a combined record of 20-48 in 2022 to 36-32 last season.
So, with five teams to get to, let's get started. It's time to reunite with an old friend who has served us well in previous years:
Jump to a team that ...
... has been in this column four times recently
... had a sneaky-great defense last season
... should get much better quarterback play
... added major improvements at wide receiver
... had terrible luck when facing QBs last season