It's time for one of my favorite columns of the year, when I pick NFL teams with the best chances of improving their records this season. I'm using my trusty predictive metrics from previous years and have some new concepts to introduce. I'll hit the four teams most likely to decline in 2023 on Wednesday, so let's focus on the positive today.
Since this column started, the results have been pretty good: 23 of the 30 teams I've pegged to improve have pulled off that feat the following season, with the average squad jumping by just over three wins per 17 games. (Many of the numbers are from the 16-game era, so I've had to prorate many metrics to account for the extra regular-season game.)
I went 4-1 in last year's column. The Jaguars and Lions went from three-win seasons to topping .500, while the Ravens jumped by two games, even with Lamar Jackson getting injured for the second consecutive season. The Bills improved from 11 wins to 13 despite having to play a home game in Detroit and playing only 16 total games because their matchup with the Bengals was canceled after Damar Hamlin suffered cardiac arrest on the field. The only blemish was against the Broncos, who we'll talk about later in this piece.
For this column, I'm relying on metrics with a track record of helping predict which teams will likely improve or decline the following season. I have some say in making the decisions and picking the teams, but I'm not considering teams whose case to improve is more about what they did this offseason than their quantitative performance from 2022.
The Jets, for example, aren't on this list. I can understand why somebody would pick them when they've replaced quarterback Zach Wilson with Aaron Rodgers, and I would expect them to win more games than they did in 2022. The numbers I'm using don't have a strong case for Gang Green improving this season, however. The Jets didn't outperform their point differential, weren't unlucky in close games and were remarkably healthy on defense last season. If you want an example of how making a major upgrade at quarterback on paper isn't a guarantee of success, you only have to look back at what happened with the Broncos or Browns a year ago.
Most years, I pick five teams. This year, it just happened to work out that there were four teams that stood out as obvious candidates on either side of the divide, so I decided not to force a fifth. Leaving aside the Jets, let's run through my four favorites for 2023, starting with a team that should be more motivated to win than it was at this time last year.