On Tuesday, I broke down the four NFL teams I expect to improve in 2023. That's the fun piece. This column is the one that doesn't go over quite as well. Time to break down the four teams most likely to decline. Given that the preseason is the most optimistic time of the year for most franchises before reality sets in after Week 1, you can imagine what the replies typically look like.
The results here are hard to ignore, however. Using many quantitative metrics to lead the way, I've named 29 teams in this column over the past six years. Twenty-four of those teams declined the following season. Four maintained their winning percentage, while just two of those 30 improved. The average team declined by 3.2 wins per 17 games. (Moving from a 16-game to a 17-game season makes these comparisons a little messier.)
Last year was a surprising 4-1 performance. Why surprising? The Packers and Titans were two teams that seemed immune to the math. Both defied the odds after appearing on the 2020 list. While the Packers declined by a single loss in 2021, the Titans won the AFC title. Injuries and regression toward the mean finally got them last season, as both fell below .500.
Misplaced optimism over the addition of Davante Adams didn't save the Raiders, who dropped from 10-7 to 6-11. The Steelers needed a second-half surge to come close, but since the NFL counts a tie as a half-win for purposes of winning percentage, 9-8 was narrowly worse than 9-7-1. The Falcons were the team whose decline I felt surest about, and they defied the odds, sticking at 7-10 for the second consecutive season. I'll stand on identifying four playoff teams that each failed to make it back to the postseason.
Here are four more likely candidates to decline. Three made it to the postseason in 2022, but I see only one likely to return. It isn't the team at the top of this list that has been in this spot since sometime in December.