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Prime-time Parlay: FPI predictions for the biggest games of NFL Week 17

Can Kirk Cousins and the Vikings beat the Bears and punch a playoff ticket? Brace Hemmelgarn/USA TODAY Sports

Will the final week of the regular season bring our first successful Prime-time Parlay of 2018? Perhaps! (And if not, we'll be with you right here through the first two rounds of the playoffs.)

Once again, Prime-time Parlay is all about the best games. This week, that means a trio of important games the entire NFL audience will be watching in the 4:25 window on the final day of the regular season. Straight-up picks, but you have to hit all five. Then we calculate how much you would earn for the parlay, using Westgate's money lines.

Via ESPN's Football Power Index, Prime-time Parlay tells you the analytics-based predictions for the meetings of greatest national import, offering the smart picks for the games you'll be watching. (All NFL point spreads and money lines can be found here.)

Total payout for Week 17 Prime-time Parlay (selecting all FPI-projected winners in five games): $541.97 on $100 wager


Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

Money line: Texans minus-330
FPI projection: Texans win by 9.7 points

Regardless of who the quarterback is, FPI thinks the Jaguars offense is a mess. Going forward, it thinks it's the second-worst offense in the league, ahead of only the Cardinals. -- Seth Walder

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

Money line: Ravens minus-265
FPI projection: Ravens win by 10.6 points

FPI never really bought in on the Browns the way most other people have, even though it recognizes that Baker Mayfield has been solid thus far in his rookie season. It still thinks they are only the 23rd-best team going forward. Maybe that's underestimating them, given that it doesn't understand the Hue Jackson situation. Point is: With Baltimore's elite defense (FPI rank: 2), it thinks the Ravens should be strong favorites. -- Seth Walder

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

Money line: Vikings minus-240
FPI projection: Vikings win by 2.6 points

The Bears' defense has been better so far, but because of priors, FPI actually thinks the Vikings' defense will be better going forward. Minnesota ranks first in defensive FPI, and Chicago ranks third. -- Seth Walder

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

Money line: Eagles minus-310
FPI projection: Eagles win by 2.4 points

Both backup QBs in this game are solid downgrades from the starters, in FPI's mind, but Philly's offense is just much better in general, so it still holds the advantage there. The Eagles' pass rush has been very good this season; they rank fifth in pass-rush win rate, led by Fletcher Cox (31 percent) and Michael Bennett (30 percent). -- Seth Walder

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC)

Money line: Colts minus-110
FPI projection: Colts win by 0.5 points

FPI is currently hedging its bets on the starting quarterback for the Titans, but either way, it will like Indianapolis' offense much more heading into this game. -- Seth Walder

Final parlay: Texans, Ravens, Vikings, Eagles, Colts

For more from ESPN Analytics, visit the ESPN Analytics Index.