ASHBURN, Va., -- The Washington Commanders remain alive in the playoff race according to the math. The reality, though, paints a different picture. The Commanders have lost four consecutive games and nine of their last 11. They also face the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys in their final four games, in addition to road games the next two weeks at the Los Angeles Rams and New York Jets.
That's why the Commanders (4-9), while desiring to turn their season around, know they'll need to show more than what they have. They're playing to win, but also for their futures -- even as their fans perhaps are paying more attention to their draft standing and possible future coaching and front-office candidates with coach Ron Rivera on the proverbial hot seat.
"Until we play better we're not worried about [playoffs]," Washington defensive tackle Jonathan Allen said. "Besides that, I play for legacy. A lot of guys in the locker room play for fame, a lot play for money. Besides competing and winning I'm playing for legacy and the name on the back of my jersey."
Receiver Terry McLaurin said his goals remain simple.
"You play every week to win," McLaurin said. "You need to respect the game. If you're any kind of competitor you want to win anytime you step on the field. That's my focus."
But here is what else the Commanders need to see over the final four weeks:
Sam Howell's progress
Perhaps the biggest question entering the offseason will be this: Has Sam Howell done enough to warrant the starting quarterback job in 2024, regardless of who's coaching the Commanders? After all, they currently own the No. 4 pick in the draft.
More than just results, Rivera said, they'll look at Howell's process.
"It really is his decision-making," Rivera said. "That's one of the things that is really always important with the quarterback, is he making the right decisions and then getting to him and asking why were these decisions made."
Howell's QBR of 47.9 ranks 22nd -- but is also Washington's best since Kirk Cousins played here in 2017 -- as does his passer rating (85.6). Howell is fifth in passing yards and first in pass attempts. He's tied with Buffalo's Josh Allen for most interceptions with 14 -- Howell has thrown five in the past three games to only one touchdown. He ranks fifth in sack percentage (9.7).
But he has started only 14 career games and has played behind a line that has struggled with pass protection -- some of it stems from Howell's inexperience and at times holding the ball too long, sometimes the receivers' timing on routes is off, and other times it's simply the line getting beat.
Rivera said Howell's footwork, an issue when they drafted him in 2022, has been "really good." But there are other aspects with which they want to see Howell become more consistent.
"It's just a little more confidence in stepping up and with those eyes downfield consistently," Rivera said. "When he's done that he's been very, very effective and he has created some really good opportunities for himself downfield."
They also want to see him grow in helping set protections, making checks at the line based on pressure looks.
"He's done a great job with all of that. As he continues to develop with that, that's going to really help and really, it's going to take some of the extra pressure off him by making those decisions quicker," Rivera said.
Howell has his own goal in mind of what he wants to see in the final four games.
"When I was playing my best the ball was coming out fast," Howell said. "It looked like I pretty much knew where the ball was going to go before the ball was even snapped. I just think my decision-making was very good, very quick, and I was just playing decisive football. I think when I'm playing decisive and I'm delivering the football accurately, that's when I'm at my best. So that's what I'm going to do here these last four games."
Passing-game progress
Of course, this also involves Howell, but it's as much about the development with his receivers, which then becomes on both parties and not just the quarterback. Three of their top four receivers -- McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Dyami Brown -- are under contract in 2024.
"We have a good chemistry, good relationship," Howell said. "I don't think that's the issue of us not being on the same page or anything like that. I think we can still grow and get better with each other and the more football we play with each other, the better we'll get with one another. But I feel like we're in a good place."
For McLaurin, the goal is to connect down the field. Washington's wide receivers average 10.9 yards per reception -- 29th in the NFL. Last year, the Commanders' wideouts ranked eighth at 13.5. They also had 10 catches of 40 yards or more a year ago but are the only team in the NFL without a wide receiver having a catch of that length. Since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, Washington has always had at least one receiver whose longest catch was for 40 or more yards.
"I would love to see us connect on the shots we have down the field," McLaurin said. "We can, as a collective group, do a better job of that. It's just the details of [Howell] trusting where we're going to be. Him trusting in his eyes and seeing the leverage of the coverage that we have and throwing us to the right spaces and us making the tough, contested plays.
"That's something we've kind of missed throughout this season. So these next four weeks, when we get those opportunities to make plays down the field, create explosives, I think we're going to have to do that, not just for the maturation for the future, but to have a chance to win."
Emmanuel Forbes' growth
Washington selected corner Emmanuel Forbes with the 16th overall pick, bypassing corners such as Christian Gonzalez, Joey Porter Jr.and Deonte Banks. All three have had more immediate impact than Forbes, though Gonzalez played only four games before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury.
Forbes, meanwhile, opened the season as the third corner and struggled. In a 34-31 overtime loss at Philadelphia on Oct. 1, Forbes was involved in four pass plays that went for 20 or more yards. He was benched for one game and limited in two others; was ejected from a loss at Seattle because of a helmet-to-helmet hit and then injured his left elbow and missed the past two games. Forbes will return Sunday and needs to show he can be a key part of Washington's future, regardless of who's coaching.
"He's a young guy that really just needs to continue to get reps and play," Rivera said.
The Commanders want Forbes to improve his technique, from footwork to his eye discipline and not try to bait quarterbacks into mistakes like he could at Mississippi State -- where he set an NCAA record with six career interception returns for touchdowns.
"We want to see him use the techniques that he's being coached to use, work on those little things, work on the details of his job," Rivera said.
There are other young players the team wants to see develop, including second-round rookie Jartavius Martin, a safety/slot corner.
Determining the future
Washington has 18 unrestricted free agents, including at least 12 who have been starters or key contributors this season -- whether from scrimmage or on special teams. Their futures probably will be determined by a new general manager and coach so even a strong finish might not be enough to return.
Among the pending free agents: safety Kamren Curl, a four-year starter, longtime starting corner Kendall Fuller and receiver Curtis Samuel, who is second on the team in receptions (51) and receiving yards (508). Also, starting defensive ends James Smith-Williams and Casey Toohill, who took over for the traded Montez Sweat and Chase Young, are in the final year of their contracts.
If rookie ends Andre Jones Jr. and KJ Henry don't flash enough over the final four games then the Commanders will not only need starting-caliber ends but at least one key backup as well, whether it's from re-signing a player or bringing in more from the outside.
Running back Antonio Gibson is another potential free agent. He's running with more power than in his first three seasons, averaging a career-high 2.37 yards after contact. He also has 37 receptions and is on pace for 48, which would top his previous career best by two. Also, with 322 receiving yards, he's 32 yards shy of setting a career high. In the last five games, Gibson has caught 22 passes for 165 yards.
"People are always looking to see how you finish off, especially when you're in a situation like this, not the best situation and everything's not going good," Gibson said. "They want to see how you're responding and how you hold up."