ASHBURN, Va. -- Washington sat in this same scenario four years ago: a new coach, armed with the second pick in the draft. But what the Commanders didn't have then that they appear to have now are options.
In 2020, Washington had a quarterback the owner favored in Dwayne Haskins, whom they used the 15th overall pick on the previous year. The Commanders' incumbent starter now is Sam Howell, a fifth-round pick two years ago by a different coach, general manager and owner. Though they have complimented him, they are not tethered to him in the way multiple sources said they were to Haskins in 2020.
Four years ago, they called the Bengals to see if they would trade the top pick so they could take Joe Burrow. They heard an emphatic no.
They hoped someone would call about trading up but mostly heard the chirping of crickets. Except, that is, for Atlanta. But the Falcons owned the 17th pick and Washington didn't want to move that far back when it needed to find premium players. While two other quarterbacks went in the top six -- Tua Tagovailoa to Miami and Justin Herbert to the Los Angeles Chargers -- nobody was willing to move up to select either one.
"It has to be a boatload [of picks], and it never approached that," former Washington coach Ron Rivera said.
They took defensive end Chase Young, who was the NFL's defensive rookie of the year but was not the same after tearing the ACL and rupturing the patellar tendon in his right knee in November 2021. He was traded to the 49ers for a third-round pick at the trade deadline this past October.
So here they are again. And, like four years ago, three quarterbacks will be selected high. It's hard to imagine Washington bypassing the position this time.
"There's a lot of really good quarterbacks," Washington general manager Adam Peters said last month. "A good year if you needed a quarterback."
But having options makes their No. 2 pick more intriguing than the last time. Here's a look at their options in order of likelihood:
Stay put
Multiple league sources, from coaches to executives, say there are two quarterbacks worthy of being drafted at No. 2 -- Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye. This, of course, assumes that Caleb Williams goes No. 1 overall. Washington still has Howell, who started all 17 games last season, but now has a chance to draft someone considered to have a higher ceiling and also with potentially five years of playing on a rookie contract.
There are no guarantees that any position works out when drafting this high, and quarterback is no exception. In the past 10 years, 21 quarterbacks have been selected in the first round; 12 project to be starters this year, 10 are still with their original team, and two reached the Super Bowl.
However ...
"I know one or two Super Bowls every 10 years you'll get a Nick Foles magic carpet ride with an unbelievable team," NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah said on a recent conference call. "The rest of them seem to be won by the Patrick Mahomeses and Tom Bradys of the world, the elite, elite guys. If you have a chance to go out there and get one of these guys who can be elite, you have to take your shot."
According to multiple analysts, the 2025 class is not trending to be as good as this one. Of course, at this time last year, while Williams and Maye were considered top picks, Daniels was not.
"It would be tough to pass on a quarterback," Jeremiah said. "You're not guaranteed to be up here again. There's no guarantee of what future years look like at the position."
Jeremiah was answering a question related to New England, but the logic applies to Washington as well.
By staying put you're guaranteed to get what you consider to be one of the top two quarterbacks in the class. ESPN NFL draft analyst Jordan Reid said Washington should stay at 2 and select Maye. Others, including ESPN NFL draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr., said they should take Daniels. Regardless, staying put is key.
Washington has approximately $92 million in salary cap space, so it can help a rookie quarterback by adding starters via free agency. The Commanders will be active in free agency because they have many holes to fill, but will spread the money around rather than make splash signings.
"You want to build it responsibly so it's sustainable," Peters told reporters at the combine last month. "So spending on a bunch of high-level free agents is probably better in the short term, but are you better in the long term? Maybe, maybe not. Try to build where you can build the team ... so you can be really good for a really long time."
The combination of cap space and six picks in the top 103 -- only Arizona has more -- give Washington the ability to build properly for the short- and long-term. It needs to find starters at defensive end (two); offensive line (tackle, center, left guard); corner, linebacker and tight end.
Trade back
While Washington coach Dan Quinn said they don't have to rebuild but, rather, "recalibrate," others in the organization know they need more talent -- and young talent at that. They're privately willing to use the word "rebuild." Washington needs more quality young players: It's possible the Commanders' last five draft classes will produce only nine starters in 2024.
"[Trading back] is a very rational thing to do," said Eric Eager, a vice president of Sumersports, which applies quantitative analysis to NFL roster building. Former Atlanta general manager Thomas Dimitroff is Sumersports' CEO. "Washington doesn't have that many good players ... so you're probably going to draft the quarterback into a situation that unless he is a true unicorn, he's going to struggle. And when everybody always cites the stats of 'Mahomes sat for a year', well, of course he sat for a year, he went to a good team."
Teams such as Atlanta (eighth), Minnesota (11th) and Denver (12th) all need quarterbacks. Washington could move back and acquire future No. 1 picks. The Commanders could roll with Howell and a rookie, or sign a moderately priced veteran quarterback to pair with a first-round quarterback.
"It's a really, really good class," Reid said of the quarterbacks.
Of course, that could prompt some teams to stay put and opt for one of the quarterbacks after Maye and Daniels and keep their other draft picks.
But if Washington doesn't love either Maye or Daniels -- or if it views another quarterback as being close to them -- it can trade back.
There is one drawback to having a lot of high picks.
"If you hit on all those picks, congratulations. But you have to then pay all those guys," Eager said. "If you kind of stagger the windows on all those players, that might be a better way to go about it."
But, as one league source said, you could always use the picks as assets to acquire a veteran -- pointing out what Philadelphia did in trading for receiver A.J. Brown. During the 2022 draft, the Eagles with extra picks, sent the 18th and 101st picks to Tennessee. In that same draft Philadelphia also moved up two spots in the first round by sending Houston the 15th, 124th, 162nd and 166th picks and selected defensive tackle Jordan Davis.
This would enable Peters to still build through the draft. He joined San Francisco as an assistant general manager in 2017 and helped the 49ers develop this same way. They drafted 27 players in their first three seasons, landing future All-Pros George Kittle, Fred Warner, Nick Bosa and Deebo Samuel.
In 2021, the 49ers traded up nine spots to third overall, where they selected quarterback Trey Lance. But even though people who know Peters say he's not afraid to be aggressive, San Francisco had a stronger roster than Washington has now. The 49ers reached the Super Bowl after the 2019 season and have gone 35-16 since they made the trade -- with Lance playing only eight games and attempting 102 passes for them before being traded to Dallas in August. The Commanders are coming off a 4-13 season, have not finished with a winning record since 2016 and have multiple holes to fill.
Trade up
Williams is considered the best quarterback in the class -- one league executive said Chicago should not trade the pick because he's clearly ahead of the others. Washington has been looking for That Guy for decades; no quarterback has been the primary starter for more than three seasons since Mark Rypien from 1989-93. The organization has started 12 quarterbacks since the 2017 season.
Kliff Kingsbury, Washington's new offensive coordinator, coached at USC last season, so he knows Williams well. An added benefit: Williams grew up in Washington, D.C., and his return home would energize the fan base.
"Caleb is still in a tier of his own," Reid said. "As far as the traits and what he can be on the next level, I think he has star potential very quickly."
If Chicago wants to trade the pick -- multiple executives anticipate the Bears will stay put and draft Williams -- multiple teams would likely be interested. That would drive up the price for Washington, even just to move up one spot.
"That just doesn't make sense to me from Adam Peters' standpoint," Reid said of moving up, "just because there's so many holes on this team. Unless Caleb just has a generational type of grade, and I hate using that word, to where you're willing to give up three plus first-round picks to move up one spot. I just don't see that happening."
From an analytics perspective -- and Washington is using analytics more than ever -- this move doesn't make sense, said Eager. It's possible multiple teams would want that pick, so the price tag would be high. And he pointed to Carolina as a reason to not make this move. Last year the Panthers traded receiver DJ Moore, the ninth and 61st overall selections last year and a first-round pick this year plus a second in '25 to Chicago for the top pick. They selected Bryce Young over C.J. Stroud, who was the NFL's offensive rookie of the year in Houston.
But now Carolina, coming off a 2-15 season and with a new coach, doesn't pick until No. 33 overall this year.
"Oftentimes it does require that kind of boldness to get the quarterback you want," Eager said. "The best move is staying at two and taking Maye; historically the difference between player one and player two at any one position is generally speaking not worth the value of the trade."
Whatever happens, multiple sources who have worked with owner Josh Harris say he'll demand Peters and Quinn bring him lots of information so the organization can make the best decision. Peters said at the combine they have not settled on any particular outcome -- though they understand the importance of the decision.