With one game left on the docket in Week 6 of the NFL season, we've already seen 50 games decided by seven points or less. That's the highest total through six weeks since 1990, and while it produces exciting football, it just doesn't tell us much about the teams involved.
In 2014, the eventual Super Bowl winner Patriots started 2-2 and were left for dead after a blowout loss to the Chiefs on Monday Night Football. They then took off on a seven-game winning streak. After Week 6, they were 4-2. Their Super Bowl opponents that year, the defending champions in Seattle, were 3-3 after a loss to the Rams. Neither seemed like a favorite at the time.
The same is true about the teams of 2016. Yes, the Vikings are good, and the Browns are not. Beyond that, we just don't know very much about the league so far. Take the Ravens. They looked to be a resurgent team after jumping out to a 3-0 start, but a closer look revealed they had won those three games by a total of just 13 points. Since then, they're in a free fall, going 0-3, and losing those games by a combined 11 points. The reality is that they're somewhere in the middle, but we have no idea where.
There are a lot of unsolved mysteries in the NFL through six weeks. There are players who haven't launched the way we've expected, teams who have put on a Jekyll and Hyde show, and decisions which beggar belief in 2016. Some of those mysteries won't be resolved until the season's over for good. Others can be cracked with a closer look. Given that this is the week when Darrius Heyward-Bey trucked a defender on the way to a rushing touchdown and Dontari Poe caught a bubble screen for a receiving score, let's run through some of those unsolved mysteries (with apologies to Robert Stack) after a strange Week 6.
Will the Packers ever figure out their offense?
After failing to impress early on this season, the Packers and their middling passing offense were the subject of a scathing review from well-respected Milwaukee Journal Sentinel writer Bob McGinn, who picked apart Aaron Rodgers, Mike McCarthy and his coaching staff. You can take issue with some of McGinn's points (Rodgers is a surefire Hall of Famer, for one), but his message is on point and raises many fair questions about whether the Packers have peaked with Rodgers under McCarthy's stewardship.
In response, the Packers did precious little on Sunday to prove McGinn wrong. McCarthy, who has steered the Packers disastrously wrong at times in years past with conservative decision-making, chose to kick two early field goals on fourth-and-short against a dynamic Cowboys offense to make the score 7-6. The Packers subsequently failed to score on their next five possessions, including one in which McCarthy chose to try to convert a fourth-and-5. By the time the Packers scored a touchdown, the Cowboys were up 27-9 with seven minutes to go.
Even more distressingly, Rodgers looked out of sorts. The Packers still rely heavily on individual routes and avoid the natural pick plays that have come into vogue around the league, but even as his receivers got open at times against the Cowboys on Sunday, Rodgers missed throws the old Aaron Rodgers would have hit without a second thought. He threw a terrible interception by anybody's standards, missing a safety rotation before the snap and throwing to a waiting robber in Barry Church, who didn't even need to budge. With the Packers placing precious little faith in their running game with James Starks out and Eddie Lacy banged up, they went with an empty backfield in the red zone and tried a quarterback draw with Rodgers, who fumbled the football away. I'm not in the camp of those who believe Rodgers is the problem in Green Bay, but he wasn't at his best on Sunday.
The major changes that might come to the coaching staff, the scheme, or the personnel surrounding Rodgers aren't going to come until the offseason, if they come at all. It's a waste of time to speculate otherwise. They're going to have to make do with the players and concepts they have, and they've shown precious little inclination to mix things up. There were reports before Week 3 that the Packers were installing explosive packages designed to take advantage of the speed of backup receivers Ty Montgomery and Trevor Davis, but they were both nonfactors on offense in each of the next two games. Montgomery was forced into the lineup on Sunday with Lacy and Davante Adams forced out of the game at times and caught 10 passes for 98 yards, but much of that was on shorter passes and even at times as a running back.
Despite all that, I still think the Packers will solve their mystery and piece together an above-average offense. The best argument at this point, to be honest, is sample-driven. While most of us look back and think that Rodgers and the Packers' offense weren't the same once they lost Jordy Nelson to a season-ending torn ACL last preseason, that simply wasn't the case. Rodgers was a monster through six games last year. The Packers started 6-0, and Rodgers was third in the league in passer rating with a 115.9 mark, having thrown 15 touchdowns against two picks. Over his previous 16 games, from the 2014 season through Week 6 of 2015, Rodgers had posted the league's second-best passer rating (113.8) and thrown 38 touchdowns against six interceptions. He was peak Rodgers.
And then, suddenly, he was mortal. The Broncos beat up Rodgers and the Packers after Green Bay's Week 7 bye, as McGinn noted, and neither has been the same since. There was little reason to think that Rodgers and the Packers were suddenly going to decline -- all the evidence suggested that they would continue to be great -- and yet, they did anyway. I'm just not ready to believe that a season's worth of middling play is enough to write the Packers off after years of success. Whether it's Nelson getting healthier, or Montgomery playing a bigger role in the offense, or the offensive line playing better, or Rodgers just finding a way to elevate his game, I think they'll find some higher level of performance over the remainder of the season.
Are the 4-2 Falcons for real? Or are they the equivalent of the 5-0 Falcons of 2015?
Atlanta is being unfairly dinged for its collapse in 2015, when it followed a 5-0 start by going 3-8 and crashing out of the playoff picture in the NFC. Many of the same players on that team are still on the roster, of course, and plenty of people reacted to Atlanta's 3-1 start (including a dramatic win over Carolina at home) by suggesting the Falcons would collapse on a brutal road trip to Denver and Seattle.
They did not collapse. Atlanta comfortably handled the Broncos in Denver in a game in which it was favored to win over the final 57 minutes. The Falcons then took it to the Seahawks in a dramatic back-and-forth battle in Seattle. It took a late-game drop by Julio Jones, which created an interception, and a brutal missed pass interference call on the same star receiver to count the Falcons out in a 26-24 loss. The Falcons went 1-1 on their road trip and were arguably the better team in both games. That should be an indication they are for real.
I keep coming back to strength of schedule in pointing out why the 2015 Falcons are different from this team. Those Falcons got off to a 6-0 start, but their record masked a lower level of play. Three of those wins came against what was then a dreadful NFC East and by a combined 12 points. Their two comfortable victories came against the Cowboys and Texans, with the Cowboys starting Brandon Weeden and the Texans going with Ryan Mallett before turning things over to Brian Hoyer midway through the game.
Compare that to this year's start. They were playing against a backup quarterback when they beat the Broncos, but it was a first-round pick (Paxton Lynch) on a team that is built upon a defensive bedrock, and the Falcons gave that defense fits. They beat the high-flying Raiders, took down the Saints in New Orleans, and then blew out the defending NFC champions by 15 points at home before taking out the defending Super Bowl champions in Denver. And that was a seven-point win only because the Broncos kicked a field goal with 19 seconds left. They obviously could have won in Seattle (which was coming off a bye). The degree of difficulty and level of performance is higher with these Falcons than last year's bunch, which is why I think they're more likely to keep up this level of play over the remainder of the season.
Are the Bills actually good?
Remember when the Bills were about to fire Rex Ryan? Ryan reacted to his team's 0-2 start and a brutal defensive performance against the Jets (which only looks worse given how New York has played since) by firing offensive coordinator Greg Roman and promoting Anthony Lynn from within. It seemed like a comically desperate response from a coach who had a history of turning each week into a dramatic, over-the-top beachhead against prior struggles.
And then the Bills turned things around overnight. They've launched a four-game winning streak, including victories over the Cardinals and Patriots. These haven't been one-score wins, either: After stomping the 49ers by 29 points on Sunday, they've won those four games by a combined margin of 124-53. The way they're beating teams over the past month, they're looking like the 2007 Patriots. Nobody's firing Rex now.
Their pass defense has morphed into a monster after being ripped to shreds by Ryan Fitzpatrick. Since Week 3, the Bills have the league's second-best opposition QBR and passer rating (behind the Vikings), the third-best sack rate and third-best interception rate. They've allowed opponents to convert just 25 percent of their third-down attempts, also ranking second. They haven't bent and they really haven't broken, as the Bills have allowed a total of just 24 points on 10 red zone trips over that timeframe. That 2.4-point average is the lowest in the league by a comfortable margin, with the league average at 4.4. They have more takeaways (three) than touchdowns allowed (two) on those drives.
Rex has helped make that happen by turning to a fixture which actually helped Rob Ryan enjoy a momentary spell of success during his run as defensive coordinator in New Orleans: he's cut down on the blitzing. During Ryan's first 18 games with the team, the Bills blitzed on 30.5 percent of opposing dropbacks, which was just above the league average of 29.3 percent. They pressured quarterbacks 24.6 percent of the time, which was the sixth-worst rate in the league.
Over the past four games, they've flipped that coin. Ryan's defense has blitzed on just 19.5 percent of pass plays, allowing them to push more defenders into coverage. Despite that, the Bills have managed to pressure the opposing passer on 30.8 percent of his dropbacks, which ranks eighth in the league. Ryan has left his cornerbacks alone on islands less frequently, and teams haven't been able to make plays.
The Buffalo offense has had no such qualms. They've combined for both efficiency and big plays over the past four weeks despite going without the injured Sammy Watkins. The Bills' biggest problem over the first two weeks was that they couldn't stay on the field: Buffalo went just 6-for-23 on third down (26.1 percent), made just two trips to the red zone and put Tyrod Taylor under pressure on 28.8 percent of his dropbacks, the fifth-highest rate in the league.
The change from Roman to Lynn seemed unlikely to fix things overnight, but the Bills have been much better on offense. They're benefiting from better field position with those defensive stops: They're seventh in average starting field position over the past four games. They're converting on 43.4 percent of their third downs, also seventh in the NFL. They have made 13 trips to the red zone and scored nine touchdowns, the sixth-highest touchdown rate in the league. Taylor is actually under pressure more frequently (32.1 percent of his passes), but he has posted a 70.5 QBR in those situations. Only Rodgers has been better.
The most notable spark has been with LeSean McCoy in the running game, but while Shady looks like he's playing at a Pro Bowl level, the offensive line has helped mightily. The Bills ranked 13th in average rushing yards before contact through Week 2. From Week 3 on, they've averaged 4.8, which is obscene. The league-average is 2.5 yards before contact, and the Texans, who are ranked second, are averaging only 3.3 yards. McCoy had a run on Sunday in which the first person to touch him, 25 yards downfield, was Bills wideout Robert Woods. McCoy converted a third-and-20 with some incredible downfield blocking on a cutback without being touched by a 49ers defender. McCoy's otherworldly agility is still there, and he's making guys miss while they're yards away (as you can see from his third touchdown Sunday), but he's also getting phenomenal blocking more in line with how the Bills performed last year.
The positive sign from a coaching perspective is that the Bills are getting solid contributions from players who otherwise weren't thought highly of in their previous stops. Two Tennessee castoffs are playing useful roles. Justin Hunter has caught touchdown passes in each of the past two weeks (his only two catches) in helping to fill in for Watkins. More notably, Zach Brown has been a revelation at linebacker while replacing another injured Bills draftee, second-round pick Reggie Ragland. Brown is second in the league to Luke Kuechly in tackles with 67 and has six tackles for loss, four knockdowns and two forced fumbles. He's an every-down player at a position which looked to be a huge problem for the Bills once Ragland went down.
Some of this is unsustainable. The Bills will not be the best red zone defense in the history of football. They won't clear out 4.8 yards of space per run play. Teams will adapt to the defensive changes. And you can make the case that they've caught teams at the right time: Their winning streak has included victories over Jacoby Brissett, Case Keenum and the debuting Colin Kaepernick, who looked sharp early before struggling more as the game went along. Their schedule is about to get tougher, as they follow a road game at Miami with the Patriots, Seahawks and Bengals sandwiching a bye.
You know what? Those factors could fade and it shouldn't really matter. The season looked lost after Week 2, and now the Bills are in great shape. ESPN's Football Power Index gives the 4-2 Bills a 76.4 percent chance of returning to the playoffs after 17 years in the wilderness.
Why are the Cowboys treating Ezekiel Elliott like a literal workhorse?
Green Bay's opponents deserve credit for what they did on Sunday, too. While rookie sensation Dak Prescott did throw his first interception, the steady Cowboys starter produced another effective performance in a 30-16 victory. Fellow rookie Ezekiel Elliott starred alongside Prescott, and what he did was even more impressive. The Packers had been incredible against the run this season, holding their opponents to 1.99 yards per carry through their first four games, the best rushing average for a defense through its first four games since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger.
Elliott promptly gashed the Packers for 157 yards on 28 carries. The Packers seemed a step slow throughout the game, with Dallas enjoying success with just about every one of its rushing concepts, thanks to its dominant offensive line and Elliott's combination of patience and quickness. As much as we often talk about Dallas' line when giving Elliott credit, he also has had runs like this one, in which the rookie back makes one defender miss in the backfield and leaps over a second defender diving at his knees before dragging two Packers for several yards to pick up a first down. Elliott gets help from his line, but it would be disingenuous to say he's a product of that line.
It was disconcerting, though, to see Elliott pounding the ball late in the fourth quarter. With the Cowboys up 14 points, they took over at midfield after a Montgomery fumble with 2:29 to go and the Packers out of timeouts. The game was over. There was little reason to do much of anything, and yet they brought Elliott back onto the field for four carries, his 25th, 26th, 27th and 28th rushing attempts of the game.
It's not the first time Jason Garrett has done this, either. In Week 3, in a nearly identical situation (Cowboys up 14 and taking over after a fumble with 2:10 left), Garrett brought Elliott onto the field for three carries despite the fact that Elliott already had 27 attempts. It's also a trick he pulled with DeMarco Murray in Murray's breakout season of 2014, giving the injury-prone back carries late in games with the Cowboys up by two scores. Using the "six-minute offense" as our guide, Murray had 13 carries that year inside the final six minutes with Dallas up by 10 points or more.
There's a huge difference between Murray and Elliott, of course, and it should inform Garrett's decisions. Murray was a back in the final year of his contract who the Cowboys were unlikely to re-sign given their cap situation. It made sense to ride him, even if the playoff-bound Cowboys were likely better off limiting his touches in an attempt to save Murray for the postseason.
Elliott is a rookie who is six games into a four-year deal (with a fifth-year option). If the Cowboys get lucky, they'll still have another 1,100 carries or so from Elliott over the remaining 58 games on that contract, plus whatever he might do in the postseason. The Cowboys have to treat Elliott like a valuable asset and use him in situations in which he matters most as opposed to just running him out for meaningless carries in spots in which Dallas' win expectancy is already close to 100 percent. The Cowboys have a perfectly capable veteran backup in Alfred Morris who can handle those reps -- he got all of three carries on Sunday. I'm skeptical that the rookie wall exists, but the Cowboys need to be smart about preserving Elliott to keep him fresh as the season goes along.
Let's go through a lightning round to finish up ...
Where is the Todd Gurley who looked so terrifying last year?
Hiding at the line of scrimmage, apparently. Even during his occasionally stunning 2015 rookie campaign, Gurley was a boom-or-bust back. Individual DVOA is a very iffy stat to use, but I'm pointing it out here for a reason: Gurley was ninth in DVOA but just 36th among backs in success rate, suggesting he was well above average without being very consistent. Indeed, Gurley had five runs of 40 yards or more, leading the league despite getting just 229 rushing attempts all season. Those five runs were responsible for nearly 25 percent of his rushing totals. Gurley also had 27 rush attempts for negative yardage, the sixth-highest figure in the league.
He's busting again this year, but there have been precious few booms. He has 14 carries for loss this year, the fifth-highest total in the league. He's getting no help from this line, as Gurley is averaging a league-low 1.2 yards before being contacted. Meanwhile, the back who had five 40-plus-yard carries last year hasn't run for more than 16 yards on any one rush attempt this season. Gurley had his best game on Sunday, and even that was good for only 58 yards on 14 carries, an average of just over 4 yards per attempt. Until he either creates some big plays or picks up a better offensive line, my podcast partner Mina Kimes will feel like her preseason skepticism toward Gurley was warranted.
What's with Odell Beckham Jr. and the kicking net?
There is one advantage to Beckham engaging with the kicking prop: He can't really be penalized for celebrating on the sideline, whereas he could be called for taunting for doing something on the field or in the end zone. Beckham did incur a penalty for taking his helmet off and chucking it at the sideline wall, which was ill-advised, but unrelated to his net shenanigans.
The arguments that Beckham was hurting the Giants during the earlier parts of the season were absurd and echoes the Bill James corollary of how teams blame their problems on their best players. Beckham's 22-403-0 line through four games was similar to the 24-307-2 line he posted to start 2015, swapping out two touchdowns for 96 receiving yards. Touchdowns are wildly inconsistent for individual receivers, and it was silly to act as if there was something wrong with Beckham because he went four games without scoring.
Beckham produced his first touchdown last week and then added two more on Sunday. The first was a terrifying double-move, a curl-and-go past reserve cornerback Will Davis for a 75-yard score. Then, on a fourth-and-1 with 1:36 left, the Giants ran a simple slant-flat concept with Beckham and a tight end, which was really designed to create an easy conversion at the sticks, only for cornerback Jerraud Powers to collide with a sprinting defender and trip. Beckham got a half-step of space and deep safety Lardarius Webb had no hope -- 66 yards later, the Giants had a crucial win. Ask the Ravens whether Beckham is hurting the Giants.
Are the Steelers in trouble without Big Ben?
Let's finish up with the latest injured quarterback. Ben Roethlisberger tore the meniscus in his left knee during Sunday's ugly loss to the Dolphins, but the good news is he reportedly only requires a partial cleanup of the knee as opposed to a more serious repair, which could have cost him the season. Roethlisberger should be able to return after Pittsburgh's Week 8 bye, although he'll miss a critical game at home against the Patriots on Sunday.
He'll give way to Landry Jones, who has shown little. The 2013 fourth-rounder saw action last year, completing just 58.2 percent of his passes while throwing more interceptions (four) than touchdowns (three). The Steelers haven't been able to afford a more effective backup for the oft-injured Roethlisberger for years now, a result of their salary-cap woes. Bruce Gradkowski, the nominal backup before getting hurt each of the past two years, was replacement-level as a regular between 2006 and 2010 and has thrown just 29 dismal passes since. Jones and Michael Vick, the latter signed off the street, filled in last year.
For as bad as those names sound, though, the Steelers went 3-2 with Jones and Vick at the helm last year, and would have gone 4-1 if Josh Scobee hadn't missed two field goals in the fourth quarter of one of those games. (That does include one game in which Roethlisberger came in for an injured Jones after four passes, so it's fair enough to call it 3-2.) Pittsburgh has gone 13-10 in games without Roethlisberger since he entered the league in 2004, which, given the roster turnover, is too vague to apply with significant meaning here, but enough to point out that they don't typically collapse into putty when Roethlisberger cannot play. It's better to have a useful backup and best to have Roethlisberger in the lineup, but if he's not available, there are worse fallback plans to rely upon than Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown.