Billy Slater has battened down the hatches and made no apologies for his decision-making ahead of the latest installment of Rugby League's ultimate title fight -- the Origin Decider.
Those proud Queensland colours were lowered spectacularly at the MCG in game two, at the hands of a Blues team which represented the one new coach Michael Maguire wanted in the first place. All barring the most remorseless Maroons fan will admit the loss triggered a noticeable topple from the proverbial perch, a cessation of the swagger and a cooling of the confidence out of the QLD camp. It was a beat down that erased all assurances of supremacy in this year's series, and prompted questions of 'where to now' for Slater and co.
It's not the first time a big loss has preceded a triumphant Suncorp Stadium decider for the Queenslanders, not even the first recently. And yet there was something about that six try first half rampage that has brows furrowed from Coolangatta to Cooktown.
People are pondering whether Maguire has unlocked the secret with his rampaging backrow, imposing backline, bigger and arguably more potent middle rotation, and a halfback who apparently mastered Origin in Melbourne. Even Gorden Tallis has attempted to ignite a proxy stoush via media channels to distract 'Madge' from a task that was only recently dismissed as being well beyond him.
No doubt about it, it was that kind of display from the Blues at the 'G. And now the chances of Jake Trbojevic hoisting the spoils in front of fast emptying stands in the heart of Brisbane on July 17th feel a tad too real for comfort.
So what have Queensland done about it? They've made a few big calls, some unavoidable, others not so much. Here are the calls that will make or break hopes in the decider:
No Fifita
No room for Jaydn Su'a, and still no room for big Dave. Kurt Capewell to start, Felise Kaufusi retained, Brendan Piakura back to the wider squad. But no room for Dave, a call that sparked some minor shockwaves north of the Tweed, as Billy Slater received his first genuine fan scoldings on the back of it. And it's definitely worth posing the question. The other big question: Is the job David Fifita performs the job the Maroons are after?
The NSW edges tore the Maroons to pieces at the MCG. Liam Martin, Angus Crichton, Latrell Mitchell and Stephen Crichton were an enormous part of why it became the rout it did. Jeremiah Nannai produced a game high 46 tackles in his 80 minutes, Su'a made 21 in his hour on the field. Fifita is definitely defensively tighter in 2024, tackling at almost 93% effectiveness, but has notched 30 total tackles just once this season. His attacking numbers are also more consistent in 2024; more carries, more busts, more offloads and more metres per game.
But maybe it's not his attack the Maroons brains trust need most right now. Maybe they need workrate off the ball just as much. He'd join a Maroons side already brimming with game breakers, as another option to create something out of nothing. That something would quite possibly be needed in the championship minutes, with both sides gasping for oxygen and potentially searching for something special.
Big Dave's only played half a dozen 80-minute games this year, and amid some recent devastating form there have been persistent question marks around the various effort areas and a few bad habits, especially under fatigue, that occur outside game breaking feats.
Is Kurt Capewell the guy to bring the starch? He brings proven experience in the arena, crucial versatility and a higher defensive work rate output to his edge. He also brings a largely underwhelming debut season with the Warriors and less attacking impact. It's a big call and Kurt will need to lift from game two, just like his team mates.
If the tackles are made and the Blues edges are better contained, Billy Slater might just figure he has enough attacking prowess at his disposal.
Reshuffled the Ferrari collection
Cobbo and Holmes on the flanks, Hammer and Gags in the centres. It's a satisfying forced reshuffle. Some of Val Holmes' best Origin moments have come on the wing, and he's struggled at centre for the majority of 2024. Defensively he'll be reeling from six misses in Melbourne and probably still carrying a Latrell Mitchell boot imprint on his chest.
That pressure remains, with the Mitchell Moses boot greatly adding to the threat in his new patch. Yet the 28-year-old Cowboy remains an elite practitioner; possessing one of the silkiest sets of hands in the world, alongside ball playing, offloads and a perpetually evasive running game. His defensive decision making will shift slightly as his support and kick return game come into greater focus for the decider, and he should carry a bit more attacking energy with a slightly lower defensive load. With no Taulagi and no Coates -- he's definitely the best option.
Reece Walsh needs to run the ball, and be given the chance to do so. He never got into things in game two, falling quiet after a few early failed attempts to create. He's now returned to Broncos colors with distinction in a losing effort, and potentially been able to join the dots on the fact that carrying superstar billing into the Origin arena doesn't automatically translate to a superstar performance. Walsh will be better for match fitness, and hopefully given more opportunity to attack on the back of better work at the advantage line from his forward pack. A potential linkup with Ponga in the midfield at some point could be some golden Origin moments in the making.
Called the cavalry
One game injury free? That'll do us. Enter Kalyn Ponga, a guy who has never failed to test the Blues' line at this level and was man of the match in his last appearance, albeit in 2022. Ponga's selection ticks Slater's pre-series box of solid backline cover, adding a genuine degree of game breaking potential off the bench. No doubt about it. Never mind about the lack of match fitness and sharpness after the lengthy Lisfranc layoff.
The Queensland brains trust is clearly confident the rust will rub off quickly for the occasion, and fans can take assurance from the professionalism of the Knights skipper; who wouldn't return prematurely, and rarely turns in a bad outing at any level. Time will tell what Madge and his guys make of it.
Holmes copped a lot of criticism for his defence in game two, and that was part of a broader narrative concerning the Maroons' lack of genuine aggression in the face of the NSW Blitzkrieg. Dane Gagai's return is a big part of the solution to this. Twenty-two Origins and a reputation for lifting in the arena and getting right up in the faces of the Blues, the 33-year-old is a proven warrior at this level and has been more than worthy of a recall based on club form. He is 33 of course, younger than his captain, but not as sharp as the Dane Gagai who debuted in game three of the 2015 series. Aggression and experience are the keys for 'Gags'.
Line speed and physicality will be just as valuable as line breaks and tackle busts for a Maroons squad desperate to restrict the point scoring potential of their opponents.
Backed the core
Tom Dearden will be trying to pick his moments and not pushing passes himself as a fierce competitor. Daly Cherry-Evans didn't deliver in Melbourne, as difficult as that is for any halfback spending the entire match on the back foot. Queensland got caught in quicksand in Melbourne, failing to register any momentum from the first few set restarts and losing even more steam to the brutal attacking assault delivered by the Blues.
Cherry's Brisbane blueprint is simple -- be more decisive and rediscover the controlling hand, slow it down, kick long, often and early when needed, run the football, and find space for Walsh, Hammer and co.
Ben Hunt takes more on, with Harry Grant -- at best -- playing injured. Or there's a Reed Mahoney debut to work into the hooking rotation that has mesmerized the Origin concept for several years now. The Maroons will welcome the niggle he might bring to test NSW tempers in the middle, but it's unlikely Mahoney would be deployed the same way as Grant.
This changes the shape for the Maroons, and any potential adjustment brings all Hunt's experience and guile to the table. It'll also probably push out his minutes. 'Cometh the moment', Slater is no doubt thinking, and the Blackwater Crushers junior is more than capable of delivering in a home decider.
Lindsay Collins would not have enjoyed what will be three weeks of headlines about him not being a genuine Origin enforcer. Regardless of that discussion, the former Brisbane Brothers junior is capable of far more impact. He won't make as many tackles as Reuben Cotter, but can lift to make the ones he does make count. He can fly in the face of the doubters with strong charges early, grabbing a couple in a few early sets and driving those hulking legs forward. A few solid hits and a few post-contact metres might just ignite this guy to regain his rightful status in the arena.
Similarly, Felise Kaufusi would be thinking hard about getting on and rattling off a few rib cages. There was limited impact in his 10-minute MCG cameo, but the big Dolphin remains a big and imposing body on the bench with the ability to intimidate. It's not often he's part of a bullied pack, and if the minutes come his way this time he might just look to make a statement.
Heading into a decider against a confident and dangerous opponent, such statements need not be discouraged.