Well here we are, the 2024 NRL season finals! Congratulations to the eight clubs and all their fans for making it to the pointy end of the season. Let's see if we can tip four from four winners from these monumental clashes.
Good luck with your tips.
Friday, September 13
Penrith Panthers vs. Sydney Roosters
BlueBet Stadium, 7:50pm (AEST)
Panthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Izack Tago 4. Paul Alamoti 5. Brian To'o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Scott Sorensen 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo Bench: 15. Lindsay Smith 16. Liam Henry 17. Luke Garner 18. Matt Eisenhuth Reserves: 19. Brad Schneider 20. Casey McLean
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Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Joseph Suaali'i 4. Joseph Manu 5. Dominic Young 6. Luke Keary 7. Sandon Smith 8. Spencer Leniu 9. Connor Watson 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Angus Crichton 12. Sitili Tupouniua 13. Nat Butcher Bench: 14. Zach Dockar-Clay 15. Naufahu Whyte 16. Siua Wong 17. Terrell May Reserves: 18. Michael Jennings 19. Blake Steep
Officials
Referee: Ashley Klein Touchies: Liam Kennedy, Chris Sutton Bunker: Grant Atkins
Prediction: The reigning premiers have limped into the finals with a less than convincing victory over the Titans in the final round. As hard as it is to write, if they continue to play the way they have been lately, then their hopes for a fourth-straight premiership could soon come crashing down. They have been without Nathan Cleary and unlike last year when Jack Cogger stepped in and performed admirably, this season's back-up Brad Schneider has struggled, placing way too much pressure on halves partner Jarome Luai. Cleary returns for the finals and they still have the engine room and backs to go all the way, but face the Roosters first up in a testing clash at home.
The Roosters have had their own issues of late, peaking with a horrendous injury toll from their loss to the Raiders two weeks back. Halfback Sam Walker and hooker Brandon Smith are both gone for the season, while Victor Radley is also struggling to make it back. They still have the back-up talent to give the Panthers a run, Connor Watson is a more than capable replacement for Smith, Sandon Smith improves with every run at halfback, Joseph Suaali'i is back from injury and union convert Mark Nawaqanitawase has proven himself up to the task should he be needed.
This is a tough game to tip, with Walker's absence even a greater issue now that Cleary has returned. The bounce of the ball, the blow of a whistle, the finals readiness and enthusiasm of the players, all factors that could decide this clash either way. The Panthers will have a full house behind them for what will possibly be the final game played at the current stadium. They have a wealth of experience in these big games and should do enough to beat the Roosters, unless the visitors hit the ground running with one of their best performances.
Tip: Panthers by 6
PointsBet odds: Panthers $1.42 (-7.5 $1.85) Roosters $2.90 (+7.5 $1.95)
Saturday, September 14
Melbourne Storm vs. Cronulla Sutherland Sharks
AAMI Park, 4:05pm (AEST)
Storm: 1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. William Warbrick 3. Jack Howarth 4. Nick Meaney 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Trent Loiero Bench: 14. Tyran Wishart 15. Christian Welch 16. Tui Kamikamica 17. Alec MacDonald Reserves: 18. Grant Anderson 19. Lazarus Vaalepu 20. Kane Bradley 21. Joe Chan 22. Ativalu Lisati
Sharks: 1. William Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Kayal Iro 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Braydon Trindall 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Toby Rudolf 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Oregon Kaufusi 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Cameron McInnes Bench: 14. Daniel Atkinson 15. Jack Williams 16. Royce Hunt 17. Siosifa Talakai Reserves: 18. Braden Hamlin-Uele 19. Chris Veaila 20. Jayden Berrell 21. Samuel Stonestreet 22. Thomas Hazelton
Officials
Referee: Gerard Sutton Touchies: Michael Wise, David Munro Bunker: Chris Butler
Prediction: The minor premiership-winning Storm remain the team to beat for the 2024 premiership. They have gradually brought their world-beating spine back together and have them hitting form at just the right time. Jahrome Hughes is the best halfback in the competition and playing his best footy, Harry Grant is almost back to his scheming best and Cameron Munster has played better, but is still producing headaches as opposition defences have no idea what he is going to do next. With the fourth ace in the pack, Ryan Papenhuyzen, returning at fullback, the perfect finals four of a kind is complete.
The Sharks have been a hard team to follow all year. At times unbeatable, at other times unbackable, it has been hard to get a grasp of their full potential. They have Nicho Hynes back at halfback, but no one is completely sure whether his return has made them a better team. They made short work of the Sea Eagles last week, with their fast-moving, hard-hitting playing style rolling right through and around the Manly defence. If Hynes clicks and plays on the back of a dominant pack with the weapons he has outside him, they could beat anyone.
The Sharks have had their defensive issues, and the Storm are just the team to exploit them. In Round 10 at AAMI Park the Sharks were 25-18 victors in their only clash this season. They will take a lot of confidence from that win as they head down to Melbourne once more. The Storm should finish in front following a tough encounter.
Tip: Storm by 8
PointsBet odds: Storm $1.30 (-9.5 $1.80) Sharks $3.60 (+9.5 $2)
North Queensland Cowboys vs. Newcastle Knights
Queensland Country Bank Stadium, 7:50pm (AEST)
Cowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Viliami Vailea 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Jake Clifford 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Jason Taumalolo 11. Heilum Luki 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Reuben Cotter Bench: 14. Sam McIntyre 15. Harrison Edwards 16. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 17. Griffin Neame Reserves: 18. Jaxon Purdue 19. Chad Townsend 20. Thomas Mikaele 21. Marly Bitungane 22. Tomas Chester
Knights: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Fletcher Sharpe 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Jack Cogger 7. Phoenix Crossland 8. Daniel Saifiti 9. Jayden Brailey 10. Leo Thompson 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Dylan Lucas 13. Adam Elliott Bench: 14. Tyson Gamble 15. Mathew Croker 16. Jack Hetherington 17. Brodie Jones Reserves: 18. Thomas Cant 19. Will Pryce 20. Jackson Hastings 21. Kyle McCarthy 22. Kai Pearce-Paul
Officials
Referee: Todd Smith Touchies: Drew Oultram, Jarrod Cole Bunker: Wyatt Raymond
Prediction: The Cowboys have battled inconsistency all year, but have strung together some impressive performances on their run to a fifth place finish. They have been rewarded with a home elimination final in front of their adoring fans who will no doubt pack the stadium and make it a hostile environment for the Knights. The Cowboys are the real dark horses of the competition, a formidable squad on paper, who, when everything goes right can really pile on the points.
The Knights had to beat the Dolphins last week who are also a team who can pile on the points if your defence is not up to scratch. The Knights kept them from scoring a try until well into the second half. They will have to repeat that defensive resolve in Townsville if they are to be any hope of springing an upset. If they can frustrate the Cowboys into losing their self-belief, they can unleash Kalyn Ponga and advance to the second week of the finals.
Question is, did they play their grand final last week? Do they have anything left in the tank?
Tip: Cowboys by 10
PointsBet odds: Cowboys $1.42 (-6.5 $1.90) Knights $2.90 (+6.5 $1.90)
Sunday, September 15
Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs vs. Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
Accor Stadium, 4:05pm (AEST)
Bulldogs: 1. Connor Tracey 2. Jacob Kiraz 3. Bronson Xerri 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Jeral Skelton 6. Matt Burton 7. Toby Sexton 8. Max King 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Samuel Hughes 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Jacob Preston 13. Jaeman Salmon Bench: 14. Bailey Hayward 15. Kurtis Morrin 16. Harry Hayes 17. Josh Curran Reserves: 19. Blake Taaffe 20. Lipoi Hopoi
Sea Eagles: 1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Tommy Talau 3. Tolutau Koula 4. Reuben Garrick 5. Lehi Hopoate 6. Luke Brooks 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Matthew Lodge 11. Haumole Olakau'atu 12. Karl Lawton 13. Jake Trbojevic Bench: 14. Ben Trbojevic 15. Josh Aloiai 16. Ethan Bullemor 17. Nathan Brown Reserves: 18. Clayton Faulalo 20. Toafofoa Sipley
Officials
Referee: Grant Atkins Touchies: Matt Noyen, Phil Henderson Bunker: Ashley Klein
Prediction: The Bulldogs have had a massive disruption this week with Josh Addo-Carr pulling out of the team, before the results of a second test also returned positive to cocaine. It was absolutely the last thing the Bulldogs needed as they were set to field an almost full strength side for their first shot at the finals since 2016. They have been missing several key players over the past two rounds in being hammered by both the Sea Eagles and Cowboys. On form and with what has happened this week, you would have to assume that their season of promise is about to come to an end.
The Sea Eagles beat the Bulldogs two weeks ago with an impressive display of forward domination. Their big men proved too much for the Bulldogs smaller forwards to handle, and off the back of that their halves, Daly Cherry-Evans and Luke Brooks carved up with Tom Trbojevic and the rest of the outside backs enjoying the spoils. But then Tom Trbojevic injured his shoulder and missed last week's game against the Sharks. The Sea Eagles were soundly beaten at home by Cronulla.
Tom Trbojevic has been named, but he will be playing under duress. However, Tom Trbojevic at 70% capacity would still be listed among the best fullbacks in the game. This game is set for the Sea Eagles to win. It will be the ultimate test of Cameron Ciraldo's coaching nous, to have his team move past the Addo-Carr drama and produce some of the attacking flair which has been desperately missing of late. Not only do they need to rediscover their point-scoring spark, they have to get back to tackling their hearts out for 80 minutes. The blue and white brick wall of defence has turned to butter of late. The Sea Eagles will be lined up to slice through it again.
Tip: Sea Eagles by 12
PointsBet odds: Bulldogs $1.95 (+0.5 $1.90) Sea Eagles $1.85 (-0.5 $1.90)
All odds correct at time of publication. Check pointsbet.com.au for the latest.