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How the All Blacks and Springboks can win the Rugby World Cup final

PARIS -- After seven weeks of incredible on-field action, Rugby World Cup 2023 has finally reached its crescendo.

The All Blacks and Springboks will face off at Stade de France in Paris on Saturday night [CET], the two teams meeting in the decider for the first time since 1995, when the final went to extra-time before South Africa eventually emerged victorious 15-12.

Twenty-eight years on, one of these teams will create history by becoming the first nation to win four Webb Ellis crowns.

Read on as Liam Napier looks at how both teams can triumph this weekend.

ALL BLACKS

Harness the emotion:

Nine senior All Blacks, including centurions Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick, Aaron Smith and much-loved veteran hooker Dane Coles, are preparing for their final bows this weekend. The wider management team that extends from much-maligned head coach Ian Foster to assistant Joe Schmidt, scrum coach Greek Feek, defence coach Scott McLeod and long-serving mental skills expert Gilbert Enoka are also moving on after the World Cup.

While the All Blacks maintain those looming departures won't be prevalent in pre-match conversations, heartfelt speeches from many of senior figures earlier this week traversed the widespread adversity this team has overcome to set the tone for an emotionally charged backdrop to the finale.

"There were a few tears and I think that's awesome to see players showing vulnerability and opening up about how much this tour and this sort of game means," All Blacks loose forward Dalton Papali'i said of the speeches.

"Someone said this is probably one of the most important games in All Blacks history because this All Blacks team went through a hard path to get here with media, friends, family criticising us and we stuck together. We weren't even said to be in the final and now look at us - we're here.

"Different players take it differently. Some of the older players were probably hit a little bit harder. It was good to see a bit of the emotion and the want from them. Seeing that gives all the other players and extra two, three per cent to think we're going to the well and we're going to give it all."

No more cards:

The All Blacks' general discipline has markedly improved throughout the World Cup - their propensity to collect cards has not.

The last time the All Blacks confronted the Springboks, in their record 35-7 defeat at Twickenham two weeks before the World Cup, they copped three yellow cards. Scott Barrett received two of those to leave the All Blacks one short for the entire second half.

In six World Cup matches in France the All Blacks have made life difficult for themselves with four yellow cards and Ethan de Groot's red that earned him a two-week suspension. Somehow, the All Blacks survived their quarterfinal epic against Ireland despite Aaron Smith and Codie Taylor's yellow cards.

Further dismissals in the World Cup final, though, could prove incredibly costly.

Back their skill:

Attacking intent sets the All Blacks and Springboks apart. The consuming tension of a World Cup final lends itself to tightening up. The All Blacks must instead be bold and back their inherent attacking flair. Conservatism will play into the Boks' hands.

There's no point shackling attacking weapons such as Will Jordan, Richie Mo'unga and Mark Telea on the ultimate stage.

The All Blacks were guilty of going into their shells, particularly in the second half, of their World Cup opening defeat to France. Opportunities to counter strike, to chip in behind the Boks' rush defence, may be limited but the All Blacks must seize these chances to impose pressure on South Africa to break out of their shell and chase the game.

Three tries the All Blacks scored in their quarterfinal victory over Ireland, one of the world's best defensive teams. Three more in the final could be enough to secure their fourth world title.

Start well:

Sounds simple enough, right? Earlier this year the All Blacks stunned the Springboks with an opening-quarter blitz that built an unsurmountable 20-3 half time lead at Mt Smart Stadium.

That night the All Blacks pack steamrolled the Boks with consistently powerful ball carriers and breakdown cleaners to lay a near impeccable platform. One month later at Twickenham the rampant Boks gained the immediate upper hand - and did not let up. On that occasion their pack was relentless at the scrum and maul - two crucial battle grounds. In a World Cup final, there is no better way to settle nerves than landing the first telling blows to grasp the ascendancy.

SPRINGBOKS

Kick, kick, kick:

With rain expected in Paris for the final the Springboks' modus operandi will revolve around their pack and the boot. The Boks scored three tries directly from kicks in their one-point quarterfinal escape against France. And while it was seven weeks ago now, the All Blacks struggled under the high ball in their World Cup opening defeat to France. If there's an area of uncertainty with the All Blacks it's their long kicking game, too.

Handre Pollard's return suits this approach from the Boks far more than Manie Libbok. Aside from the tactical kicking, and attempting to pressure the likes of Will Joran in the air, the Boks will try slow the pace and reduce the ball in play. They'll scrum for penalties, walk to lineouts, feign injuries. The slower the pace, the less rugby played, the better for the Boks.

Target the breakdown:

Let's use Ireland as a barometer. In their pool match Ireland dominated the Springboks at the breakdown with loose forward Josh van der Flier and Caelan Doris prominent. In their quarterfinal success the All Blacks dominated Ireland there, with Sam Cane and Ardie Savea claiming four turnovers between them. Shannon Frizell's powerful charges helped lay the foundation - as did the All Blacks' resolute defence which allowed Brodie Retallick and Sam Whitelock to get over the ball at crucial times too.

A South African once said to me: 'There are many ways to skin an apple'. By any means necessary the Springboks must find a way to disrupt the All Blacks' breakdown; to deny them the quick, clean ruck speed they so crave. Do that, and frustration will grow. Do that, and the All Blacks will be forced to kick away possession to avoid being camped in their half.

Once again the breakdown is a defining battleground.

Unleash the Bomb squad:

The closer the final is down the stretch, the more confident the Springboks will be. Rassie Erasmus and Jacques Nienaber have fine-tuned their bomb squad bench for occasions such as these. Last week against England, South Africa's reserves sparked their late revival from the dead.

Even without Malcolm Marx, the Boks bench delivers. Ox Nche overpowered the English scrum; RG Snyman scored the only try of the semifinal, Pollard kicked the match-winning penalty in a 10-point turnaround. In short, the Springboks will back their bench to finish the final stronger than the All Blacks.

The All Blacks are expected to include Nepo Laulala, their best scrummaging tighthead, on the bench to counter Nche's powerful influence. Last time out at Twickenham the Springboks stacked their reserves with seven forwards to spark an outcry from sections of the north. For the final a 6-2 forward split would not surprise.

While the All Blacks are well aware of what's coming, countering it is another prospect.

"It would be good to take some gas out of that bomb wouldn't it," All Blacks forwards coach Jason Ryan said. "They've got their DNA as a forward pack and it shifts momentum for them. They're playing to their strengths. It's worked for them. We've got trust in our plan this week. We believe we'll be able to be there right to the end."