We'll be lucky to see another year with as many genuine AFL premiership chances heading into a finals series as we have in 2024. Seriously. Not one of the eight teams standing there on September 28 holding the cup aloft seems a fanciful prospect.
That, though, is as much because in this remarkable season, every team has also at stages clearly looked vulnerable, the Western Bulldogs the only team which didn't lose at least three games in a row.
So yes, every team can win the flag. Equally, there's decent arguments they can't. Here's what we mean...
Sydney
Why they CAN win the flag
The Swans have been clearly the best-performed team of 2024, assuming top spot on the AFL ladder in Round 8 and not surrendering it, winning 13 of their first 14 games, at one stage three games clear of second, and finishing a game clear, finding form again in three wins to finish off the season. Sydney went 6-3 against other top eight teams and ranked first in the competition for points scored, first for points from turnovers, and second for scores per inside 50 and scores from stoppages. The Swans have plenty of in-form stars, with Isaac Heeney, Errol Gulden and Chad Warner three of the best-performed players of 2024. The Swans have won five of their last six games against qualifying final opponent GWS, and nine of their 11 games at the SCG this year, creating a potentially smooth ride to a Grand Final.
Why they CAN'T win the flag
Sydney of the last two months is a vastly inferior team to that which power through the first two-thirds of the season. The Swans lost five of six games between Rounds 16-21, scraped over the line against Collingwood, and weren't necessarily that convincing even in their last two wins against Essendon and Adelaide. Their defensive ranking slipped from first after Round 20 to only seventh by the end of the season as they conceded four of their highest scores in the last five games. The forward structure is relying heavily on goals from medium-sizers like Will Hayward and the midfielders with key forwards Joel Amartey, Logan McDonald and Hayden McLean all struggling, Amartey managing just eight goals in nine games since his nine-goal haul against Adelaide.
Port Adelaide
Why they CAN win the flag
This Port Adelaide outfit is looking more and more like a team on a mission, not only to win that elusive premiership 20 years after its first, but as a final, definitive rejoinder to the many critics of coach Ken Hinkley. The Power have never looked tougher and more focussed than in their response to that season-turning 79-point thumping at the hands of Brisbane in Round 15, after which they won seven of their final eight games. Port won five of eight games against the top eight. They had statistically the third best defence in the competition and ranked third for defensive to forward 50 transition. And it goes without saying that in Zak Butters, Connor Rozee, Jason Horne-Francis and Ollie Wines the Power have one of if not the best midfield group this finals series.
Why they CAN'T win the flag
The longer Port goes without September success, the more it carries a sizeable millstone around its neck. The Power are 2-5 from their last seven finals under Hinkley and 2-4 at home. Port's attack failed to fire last year in finals when it had finished the season ranked third for scoring, so how it will fare this finals campaign ranked only eighth is of concern. Particularly as only two of the past 18 AFL premiership teams has been any lower than sixth. While Mitch Georgiades is in good touch, veteran Charlie Dixon has been inconsistent and his finals record is questionable, while Todd Marshall has been held goalless in his last four games.
Geelong
Why they CAN win the flag
In a season full of uncertainty, inconsistency and peaks and troughs from virtually every finalist, the super-experienced Cats still shape as the most dependable September proposition of the finalists. After a rough patch mid-season, Geelong finished off strongly winning seven of its last nine games, and was the only side since early in the season to put glamour team Hawthorn to the sword, thumping the Hawks by 50 points. The Cats finished third for points scored this season, and ranked highly for scores from turnover and clearance. The star factor also looms large for Geelong, with both Patrick Dangerfield and Jeremy Cameron in particularly good form over the past month or so leading up to finals.
Why they CAN'T win the flag
The Cats had some decent wins during the regular season, but tellingly, five of their other victories were by 13 points or fewer. They also, unusually for Geelong, were blown off the park several times, games to Gold Coast, Carlton, and Western Bulldogs all lost by 47 points or more. The Cats' once rock-solid defence has been penetrated a lot more easily this year, their ranking for points conceded only 11th and an even worse 15th for points conceded from stoppage. Geelong's midfield is vulnerable often, with lowly rankings for both contested possession and clearance differentials, and there's a heavy dependence on the ageing Patrick Dangerfield, and now Max Holmes, and Tom Stewart around the stoppages.
GWS
Why they CAN win the flag
The Giants' form has been solid for the vast bulk of the year with five straight wins to open the season and a string of seven victories before their final-round loss in Ballarat to the Bulldogs. Even their brief stumble of three losses in a row leading up to mid-season was against Sydney, an in-form Essendon and the Bulldogs, none by a lot. Which is typical. Only one of GWS's defeats has been by any more than 29 points. The Giants' "anytime, anywhere" approach means they won't fear away finals, either, having played at 12 different venues this season. They have a couple of potential matchwinners up forward, too, in Coleman medallist Jesse Hogan and Toby Greene, who have kicked 110 goals between them this season.
Why they CAN'T win the flag
While GWS is an honest side capable of bursts of brilliance, it doesn't stand out particularly in any area, ranked only seventh for points scored and ninth for points conceded, and ranked mid-table in 27 of another 38 key statistical categories. Its record against the top sides is also 50-50, with six wins and six losses against rival top eight teams. The Giants also rank bottom six in the areas of defensive to forward 50 transition and for inside 50 differentials, two statistics in which each of the last 10 premiership teams has ranked top six.
Brisbane
Why they CAN win the flag
Brisbane's fifth place may not suggest it particularly, but there's some important statistical indicators saying the Lions are still a massive premiership chance. Like Champion Data's 'Premiership Standards Report', which ranks teams in 38 statistical categories. Brisbane are top six in no fewer than 32 of them, more than any other finalist. Better still, in the six categories in which every premiership side of the past 10 years has ranked top six, such as points against, inside 50 differential and defensive to forward 50 transition, the Lions rank either first or second. Brisbane is in good form, having won 10 of its last 12 games and the two losses by just 18 points and one point. The Lions are also more dependable on the road, having won seven and drawn another of their 12 games away from the Gabba in 2024.
Why they CAN'T win the flag
As talented as Brisbane clearly is, you just can't shake the feeling that the Lions are often their own worst enemy, as evidence again recently in their throwing away of victory against Collingwood at the MCG, and the week before at home against GWS. Forwards Joe Daniher, Charlie Cameron and Eric Hipwood are also supremely talented but all still capable of blotting their copybook with untimely errors and poor performances. Conversion continues to be a fundamental but very costly weakness for Brisbane also, the Lions a miserable 16th for accuracy and ranked only 11th for percentage of goals from inside 50 entries.
Western Bulldogs
Why they CAN win the flag
The Bulldogs' form is arguably better than any other finalist's, having won eight of their last 10 games, including beating four other contenders, Carlton, Geelong, Sydney, and GWS, the last three by a minimum six goals. They're also now the team with statistically the best balance of attack and defence, ranked second for points scored and first for points against. Indeed, they're covering most bases very well, now ranked top six in no fewer than 30 of 38 statistical indicators, bottom six in just one, and top three in the five categories in which every one of the last 10 premiership teams has been top six. Besides midfield stars Marcus Bontempelli and Adam Treloar, the Dogs have much potency up forward, six players having kicked 25 goals or more.
Why they CAN'T win the flag
Even during the Bulldogs' best patch of form to finish off the season they still had a tendency to produce an untimely "bad day", such as the 43-point loss at home to Brisbane, 48-point defeat to Port Adelaide and 39-point loss against Adelaide, which meant that only once during the season did the Doggies manage to produce more than two consecutive victories. That's a pattern which suggests the Dogs will find it challenging to produce their absolute best against four finals rivals in consecutive weeks. Also, while Treloar Tom Liberatore and Ed Richards have all had great seasons, it's the champion Bontempelli who the Dogs will still rely on heavily to get them over the line in the biggest of games. Can they get there if he's kept quiet?
Hawthorn
Why they CAN win the flag
There's a good reason so many people are climbing on the "Hawks can go all the way" bandwagon despite the fact Hawthorn will have to become only the second team to win the flag from the bottom half of the eight in 25 seasons of the current system. It's because Sam Mitchell's side plays an all-guns-blazing style, quick, attacking and free-flowing, and it's been good enough not only to win 13 of its last 16 games, with two of those losses by one and two points, but to dispense of four top eight rivals. Indeed, since Round 11, the Hawks have ranked No.1 in the AFL both for points scored and fewest points conceded. Hawthorn are also a difficult side to match-up on with not only half-a-dozen on ground-level goalsneaks, but even key position forwards like Mabior Chol, Jack Gunston and Calsher Dear, for whom mobility is a huge weapon.
Why they CAN'T win the flag
The Hawks are by some margin the youngest and least-experienced of the eight finalists, and even more inexperienced relative to their opposition when it comes to September, just on half of the Hawthorn side which took the field in Round 24 yet to have run out for a final. Nor is Hawthorn an imposing team physically, which told in three of the heaviest defeats of the season, against Sydney, and twice at the hands of Geelong. The Hawks' finals draw might be an issue, too. If they beat the Dogs this week, they will meet either Geelong or Port Adelaide (a 0-3 scoreline against those two this season), then should they win that clash, a preliminary final against either Sydney or GWS (1-2 scoreline) at the SCG, where they've lost four of their last five games.
Carlton
Why they CAN win the flag
The Blues' best this season was as good as anyone's, strong defensively, prolific midfield and explosive up forward. Carlton won 11 of its first 15 games, including Brisbane, GWS and a thumping 10-goal win over Geelong, and was second on the ladder as late as Round 19. And that was despite a season-long battle with injury to a host of important players. When inspirational skipper Patrick Cripps is on-song with Sam Walsh his sidekick, and key forwards Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay are fit and mobile, the Blues are very hard to stop, potent and efficient inside 50, Carlton fourth for scores and second for points per forward entry.
Why they CAN'T win the flag
While Carlton fought manfully against injuries much of the season, the effort expended fighting the tide of ill-fortune seemed to take a greater toll the longer 2024 went, and the Blues' seemingly unshakeable top four spot turned to a near-finals miss, their last-second defeat to St Kilda in the last game their sixth loss in the final eight rounds. Their 4-6 record against the rest of the top eight this season doesn't inspire a heap of confidence, and only four teams this year have conceded more points than the Blues, ranked 14th, a disturbing indicator indeed given every single one of 24 AFL premiership teams since 2000 has ranked no lower than sixth. Even worse, the Blues rank a miserable 16th for points conceded from stoppage. Winning a flag with numbers that bad would be uncharted territory.
You can read more of Rohan Connolly's work at FOOTYOLOGY.