You only need to rewind to the last AFL final we witnessed to find the value of the X-factor player. Grand Final day, 2023; Bobby Hill kicks a career-high four goals to lead Collingwood to a nail-biting premiership win over Brisbane, pocketing the Norm Smith Medal for his troubles.
So who are the X-factors that could shape this upcoming finals series? Here's the one player on each of the eight lists that could spark their team in September.
Sydney - Nick Blakey
He's up and down like a yo-yo, but if he manages to be up in September, it might just prove the difference between a Swans premiership and an earlier than expected exit. Blakey is one of the AFL's best line-breakers, never afraid to take on the opposition with his unmatched pace and dare, and ranking seventh in the league for metres gained. And in tight, contested finals football, having that sort of weapon is invaluable. The Swans are 9-1 this season when Blakey has been able to take two or more running bounces in a game, and 7-5 when he hasn't. Get him the ball in space and let him slice his way up the field. Fingers crossed he can hit his targets!
Port Adelaide - Jason Horne-Francis
Some may argue Horne-Francis has now firmly moved into the league's star player camp, but I still view him as a true X-factor and someone who can make or break the Power's September. When Horne-Francis plays well, the Power generally win. But when we think of him playing well, it's usually either bursting from a stoppage or hitting the scoreboard. Instead, Port Adelaide's success has often come when Horne-Francis wins ball on the outside of the contest; they are 12-1 this season when he has 11 or more uncontested possessions in a game. We know he can do it in tight, but if he's getting the uncontested stuff, too, he and his team might be set for a very special September.
Geelong - Gary Rohan
When he's cold, he's ice cold. Hell, he might not even play, but every now and then Rohan has a quarter, or even a 10-minute burst, that shows why Chris Scott continues to roll the dice on him. And in lower scoring finals, two quick goals, an opportunistic run down tackle in the forward 50, or even a contested mark, might just be the difference between winning and losing. All of the attention in Geelong's forward line will be on Jeremy Cameron, so Rohan could play the familiar role of flying under the radar and bobbing up at random moments. It's also worth pointing out the Cats have won their last four finals in which Rohan has hit the scoreboard.
GWS - Toby Bedford
This time last year, Bedford had all of the attributes of an X-factor small forward. Now, he's an X-factor for a totally different reason, having made a name for himself as an elite run-with player. Bedford has put the clamps on a number of the game's star midfielders, a skill that's tremendously valuable, particularly in finals when the best of the best generally separate themselves from the rest. The value of Bedford will likely be seen in the first qualifying final against cross-town rival Sydney. Does he go to Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner, or Errol Gulden? Who knows, but you can be sure it will be one of them!
Brisbane - Zac Bailey
Lachie Neale, Josh Dunkley, Hugh McCluggage, Charlie Cameron, Joe Daniher, Dayne Zorko, and Harris Andrews. What do they all have in common? They're probably all picked before Bailey when compiling a list of Brisbane's best players. But if they all play to their absolute potential, Bailey might be the one who makes the greatest difference in September. The Lions are 7-1 this season in games Bailey has had 16+ disposals and 4-5 when he's fallen short of that mark. He can be the link man between midfield and forward with his pin-point kicking, hit the scoreboard himself, and apply pressure inside attacking 50. When Bailey is firing, the Lions are a far more dynamic side.
Western Bulldogs - Sam Darcy
How long will it be before Darcy is the best key forward in the league? Two years? One year? Maybe. The young Bulldog has shown some extremely promising signs through the first 26 games of his career and looms as a crucial piece for his side this September. The defensive attention will be on Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and Aaron Naughton, but Darcy himself boasts 37 goals from 20 games -- only being held goalless once -- and has clunked more contested marks this season than the aforementioned pair. He's confident and in form, as evidenced by a career-best bag of seven goals two weeks ago. Don't sleep on him.
Hawthorn - Jack Ginnivan
The Hawks have a number of legitimate X-factor candidates. You could make a case for Blake Hardwick, Josh Weddle, or even Nick Watson, but I'm going with Ginnivan. There's loving the big stage and then there's performing on the big stage. Luckily for Hawthorn fans, Ginnivan firmly checks both boxes. The premiership player with the Magpies now has his sights set on a second medallion in 12 months and looms as one of the Hawks' most important and dynamic players ahead of finals. The more game time the better for Ginnivan. This year, the Hawks are 9-1 when he's played 82% or more of the game and just 3-7 when he hasn't.
Carlton - Tom De Koning
It's no coincidence the Blues' late season collapse has coincided with the injury to De Koning. The young ruck had well and truly found his place at AFL level, developing into one of Carlton's most important players. This year, De Koning has had a 25-disposal game, a 20 contested possession game, an 11 clearance game, and a three-goal game. De Koning hasn't played since Round 19 after having surgery on a collapsed lung, and while there's no guarantee he suits up for the Blues in their elimination final against the Lions, his inclusion would be a monumental boost.