With just two games left in the eliminations, the 2024-25 PBA Commissioner's Cup remains wide open.
Blackwater, Phoenix, and Terrafirma have been eliminated from contention, while six teams have secured a postseason berth. That leaves the middle of the standings as a hotbed for action, with squads fiercely battling for better positions.
As the tension heightens and teams fight for positioning, many possibilities remain. Will we see dramatic upsets or decisive wins that shake up the playoff picture? Here are some of the key scenarios heading into the final two games.
Race for the twice-to-beat advantage
As the conference nears its climax, the cardinal rule of holding off on shots until the game clock expires becomes irrelevant. With multiple teams potentially ending the eliminations tied in the standings, the battle for the elusive top two seeds is no longer straightforward. Instead of a single playoff game deciding the matter, point differential will play a critical role in determining the rankings.
What's clear for the playoff picture is that NorthPort will be the top seed after the eliminations. Meralco failed to reach nine wins after their loss to Ginebra on Wednesday. NLEX's big victory over Eastern also eliminated defending champions San Miguel in this conference.
The final standings hinge on potential ties and the margins of victories in the remaining games, making every possession and every point crucial in the last two final matchups on Friday between Meralco and Magnolia and TNT and Rain or Shine.
Scenario 1: Meralco and TNT win
TNT would join NorthPort at the top with identical 9-3 records and secure the two twice-to-beat advantage seats.
A three-way tie for the third seed at 8-4 among Converge, Ginebra, and Meralco.
Converge takes the third seed with a plus-23, Ginebra will be fourth with a minus-3 point differential, and Meralco gets the fifth seed with a minus-20.
Eastern remains in the mix and will remain at the sixth seed at 7-5.
Rain or Shine and NLEX finish at 6-6, securing their playoff berths.
NLEX gets the seventh spot with the winner over the other rule, which relegates Rain or Shine to number eight. No playoff game for this tie.
Magnolia is eliminated at 5-7.
Scenario 2: Meralco and Rain or Shine win
TNT drops to 8-4, creating a four-way tie with Converge, Ginebra, and Meralco.
Converge will occupy the No. 2 spot and enjoy a twice-to-beat advantage in the quarterfinals with a point differential of plus-21.
TNT enters at No. 3 (plus-8), Ginebra gets the fourth spot (minus-8), and Meralco sits at No. 5 (minus 22).
Rain or Shine and Eastern finish tied at 7-5 with RoS as the No. 6 after beating Eastern during the eliminations.
NLEX holds firm at 6-6 and will enter the playoffs as the final seed.
Magnolia is eliminated at 5-7.
Scenario 3: Magnolia and TNT win
NorthPort and TNT will be the top two seeds and hold the twice-to-beat advantage.
Converge and Ginebra will be tied at 8-4.
Meralco drops to 7-5, falling into a tie with Eastern.
Converge and Meralco get the winner over the other rule in their respective ties, which makes the seedings: No. 3 Converge, No. 4 Ginebra, No. 5 Meralco, No. 6 Eastern.
Magnolia is tied at 6-6 with Rain or Shine and NLEX.
NLEX's superior point differential (plus-8) puts them as the seventh seed.
A playoff game between Rain or Shine (minus-10) versus Magnolia (minus-2) determine who gets the last ticket to the playoffs.
Scenario 4: Magnolia and Rain or Shine win
TNT's loss drops them to 8-4, joining Converge and Ginebra in a three-way tie for the second spot.
TNT still gets the elusive twice-to-beat advantage because of point differential: TNT (plus-7), Converge (plus-5), and Ginebra (minus-12).
Rain or Shine, Eastern, and Meralco all lock in at 7-5.
Meralco's point differential makes them No. 5 (plus-15), followed by Rain or Shine at the sixth spot (plus-8), and Eastern at No. 7 (minus-23)
Magnolia and NLEX finish at 6-6, forcing a playoff for the last spot.