CHICAGO -- After at least taking a look at David Price, then seeing where his market was going, the Chicago Cubs chose a much smaller risk -- and investment -- in agreeing to terms with right-hander John Lackey on Friday.
Even Jeff Samardzija's market was moving in the wrong direction, according to industry sources, so the Cubs pounced on a reasonable deal for a player presumably inching toward the end of his career -- though he didn't pitch as if he were nearing the end last season.
Was it the right move?
It was earlier Friday that Theo Epstein said the longer the contract for a free-agent pitcher "the less you sleep at night," so in that sense Epstein can get a good night of rest knowing Lackey's $32 million deal will almost assuredly at least tie for the shortest -- and possibly cheapest -- for a free-agent pitcher who had a qualifying offer attached to him.
That's the one downside: The Cubs gave up a first-round pick for a two-year player. But their first-rounder (No. 28) isn't worth what it was as recently as this past summer, and they will get one back if they lose Dexter Fowler. So if it helps net them another playoff appearance, it will be worth it.
Of course, the other potential downside is whether Lackey's age (37) is catching up with him. No one can know for sure, but if he can perform as he did last season, the Cubs have a bargain. His 2.77 ERA ranked seventh in the National League. Combine that with Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester, and the Cubs have three of the top 15 starters in the NL, according to ERA.
The Cubs also were looking at Mike Leake and Wei-Yin Chen, among others. You could make a case for any of these pitchers. Leake doesn't come with a qualifying offer, and Chen performed well in the AL East, from where the Cubs obtained Arrieta and Lester. Of course, those deals would be for more money but for younger players. They are all second-tier guys, and once again the Cubs chose someone they know well -- a former Red Sox player who is good friends with both Lester and David Ross. Clubhouse chemistry is big with this team, and Lackey will only add to it, according to Ross.
"One of the best competitors I've ever been around, and I'm not just saying that," Ross said Friday afternoon. "He's going to bring a toughness to our team that is going to make everybody better."
More important is how he pitches. Ross says he thinks Lackey is better than his days in Boston, where the pitcher routinely gave up more hits than innings pitched. A friendlier National League might have helped, but across the board he reduced damage by simply executing pitches. His home run percentage (7.2) was his lowest since 2010. His double-play percentage was up, and he gave up extra-base hits at a lower rate than at any point in his career. A slight regression still means a good 2016.
"I thought he got better last year," Ross said. "He developed that cutter. He didn't have that when we played together in Boston."
Remember, Lackey basically replaces Dan Haren in the rotation. Even if he can't repeat last season, that's still a big upgrade. Instead of taking over at No. 5, he will probably be a No. 3, moving Jason Hammel and Kyle Hendricks down. The Cubs aren't done though -- they can't be. Considering Lester is a year older, Arrieta is coming off a career high in innings and former Tommy John guy Lackey is 37, they need to fortify their staff even more. They know that.
"If I had to guess, we'll still probably sign a free agent and make a trade, but not going to hold ourselves to it," Epstein said before the agreement with Lackey was learned.
They won't sign another free-agent pitcher at Lackey-type money, but a trade is still viable. Keep an eye on Cleveland and Carlos Carrasco, a name that popped up at the trade deadline this past summer. In terms of Lackey, it's pretty simple. It's a great deal if he pitches the way he did in 2015. It's a good deal if his ERA is in the 3.00s. It's a bad one if age catches up with him or he's injured, but either way the Cubs didn't make a huge commitment. For a first major move of the offseason, it's not a bad one. What the team does combined with it will tell a bigger story.
For now, Epstein can sleep well.