MORE PREVIEWS: ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN | CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAC | KC | LA | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | OAK | PHI | PIT | SD | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WAS
DALLAS COWBOYS
Last Season: 4-12
Fourth place, NFC East
Preseason power ranking: 23
The Cowboys are 15-4 over the last two seasons with Tony Romo as the starting quarterback. They are 1-12 without him during that span. Now that he will open the season on the bench because of a compression fracture in his back, the Cowboys will have to rely on rookie fourth-round pick Dak Prescott to run the offense. They won’t need Prescott to do everything because of the pieces in place throughout the offense. Dez Bryant is looking more like the receiver who led the NFL in touchdown catches in 2014 than the one who was limited in nine games last year with a broken right foot. The addition of Ezekiel Elliott gives the Cowboys a true threat at running back. And then there’s that offensive line that can give Prescott time and Elliott holes.
Go reread the Cowboys' record without Romo in 2014 and ’15. But if you want to move away from the worry of not having the franchise leader in touchdown passes on the field, look at the defense. It is built for a complementary role, not to dominate games. If the offense is scoring points, the Cowboys will have an opportunistic defense. If the offense scuffles a little bit, which is more likely now with a rookie quarterback, there are just not enough defensive playmakers to carry the day. They are relying on career years or unseen development from low-price free agents or draft picks to carry the pass rush. This is not a scheme that is difficult to figure. They mostly just line up and play. Without premier playmakers at every level of the defense, they can be had in close games when it matters most.
Cowboys' percentage chance to win each game
Sept. 11 vs. New York Giants: 61.2
Sept. 18 @ Washington: 35.0
Sept. 25 vs. Chicago: 64.8
Oct. 2 @ San Francisco: 41.1
Oct. 9 vs. Cincinnati: 49.1
Oct. 16 @ Green Bay: 20.4
Oct. 30 vs. Philadelphia: 76.3
Nov. 6 @ Cleveland: 56.9
Nov. 13 @ Pittsburgh: 27.7
Nov. 20 vs. Baltimore: 65.0
Nov. 24 vs. Washington: 74.5
Dec. 1 @ Minnesota: 30.0
Dec. 11 vs. New York Giants: 41.8
Dec. 18 vs. Tampa Bay: 72.8
Dec. 26 vs. Detroit: 75.2
Jan. 1 @ Philadelphia: 43.3
Todd Archer's game-by-game predictions
The Cowboys would be really freaked out if Prescott hadn’t had so much success in the preseason. Coaches think he’ll do fine, but they can’t be that confident. -- Dan Graziano
The Cowboys picked Elliott No. 4 overall to be their difference-maker. They ran the ball just fine in 2015 with Darren McFadden, but Elliott can bring power, speed and big-play potential while also wearing on defenses. The Cowboys believe Elliott will do for them in 2016 what DeMarco Murray did of them in 2014.
Cole Beasley has seen his production increase in each of his first four seasons. He is a favorite target of Romo’s and Prescott will have to learn Beasley’s quickness underneath means he wins routes early. On an offense with Bryant, Jason Witten and Elliott, his touchdown numbers might not grow much, but he could easily surpass last year’s totals of 52 catches for 536 yards.
The Cowboys’ success has largely been built on Romo’s shoulders. They will have to prove they can win without him. When he returns, he has to play at a high level, but he can’t be put in a situation where feels like he has to do everything. There is enough talent to win offensively. The defense is the bigger question, even without Romo. At different points over the summer, the defense showed some unexpected promise. They don’t have to be the third-coming of “Doomsday,” but if they can crack the top 12 and take the ball away the Cowboys could run away with the NFC East.