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          New York Jets

          Jets' playoff hopes start and end with Ryan Fitzpatrick

          • Rich Cimini, ESPN Staff WriterSep 5, 2016, 10:00 PM
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              Rich Cimini is a staff writer who covers the New York Jets and the NFL at ESPN. Rich has covered the Jets for over 30 years, joining ESPN in 2010. Rich also hosts the Flight Deck podcast. He previously was a beat writer for the New York Daily News and is a graduate of Syracuse University. You can follow him via Twitter @RichCimini.
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          New York Jets

          Last Season: 10-6

          Second place, AFC East

          Preseason power ranking: 10

          The Jets have a top-five defense (again), but this version will be better than last season's because it's faster, especially at linebacker. The defensive line is an embarrassment of riches, with three former first-round picks -- Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson and Leonard Williams. The defense will keep the Jets in every game as they navigate a brutal early schedule. The offense might slip a notch from last season, but it's a savvy group of accomplished players that will figure out ways to outsmart the opponent. And let's not forget the special teams: They no longer stink.

          The offense will be too one-dimensional because of an inability to control the line of scrimmage. With Breno Giacomini (back) out indefinitely, the right tackle spot is a major question. Matt Forte was a nice offseason addition at running back, but the Jets will lose some of their ground-and-pound mentality without the punishing Chris Ivory. They can't fall into the trap of becoming too pass-happy because quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is at his best when he's managing the game, playing to his defense. Many of their best players are older -- eight starters of at least 30 years old -- so injuries and fatigue become a question.

          Jets' percentage chance to win each game

          Sept. 11 vs. Cincinnati: 51.8

          Sept. 15 @ Buffalo: 38.9

          Sept. 25 @ Kansas City: 31.9

          Oct. 2 vs. Seattle: 48.2

          Oct. 9 @ Pittsburgh: 29.9

          Oct. 17 @ Arizona: 26.7

          Oct. 23 vs. Baltimore: 55.0

          Oct. 30 @ Cleveland: 60.5

          Nov. 6 @ Miami: 40.9

          Nov. 13 vs. Los Angeles: 65.3

          Nov. 27 vs. New England: 47.6

          Dec. 5 vs. Indianapolis: 53.1

          Dec. 11 @ San Francisco: 48.8

          Dec. 17 vs. Miami: 65.8

          Dec. 24 @ New England: 27.7

          Jan. 1 vs. Buffalo: 58.0

          Rich Cimini's game-by-game predictions

          Fitzpatrick's return helps the Jets. But how can we think the Jets have any confidence in him after holding firm for so long on an offer that was half of Brock Osweiler's salary? -- Dan Graziano

          Most of the great defenses have a playmaker at safety. Calvin Pryor could be that guy for the Jets. At 5-foot-11, 207 pounds, he doesn't have Kam Chancellor size, but Pryor packs a wallop and relishes the role of intimidator. He's comfortable in coach Todd Bowles' defense, and he's diagnosing plays faster than a year ago, which should result in more plays on the ball.

          The offense will be dominated by receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker as well as Forte, but Quincy Enunwa will pick up enough scraps to become a fantasy factor. He's a wide receiver-tight end hybrid who will capitalize on favorable matchups as opponents overplay Marshall and Decker. His role started to expand late last season, and that should continue in 2016.

          Let's call it the final two words: Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Jets' playoff hopes hinge on whether he can duplicate last season, when he set the franchise record with 31 touchdown passes. He held his ground during a long contract dispute and got what he wanted, a one-year, $12 million contract, and now he has to prove last season wasn't an aberration. If he's successful, the Jets will be one of the top teams in the AFC.