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          NFL Nation

          Texans counting on Brock Osweiler, dominant defense adding up to another division title

          • Sarah Barshop, ESPN Staff WriterSep 5, 2016, 10:00 PM
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              Sarah Barshop covers the Los Angeles Rams for ESPN. She joined ESPN in 2016 to cover the Green Bay Packers for ESPN Milwaukee. She then moved to Houston to cover the Texans. She came to ESPN after working as a writer and editor for Sports Illustrated. You can follow her on Twitter @sarahbarshop.
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          Houston Texans

          Last Season: 9-7

          First in AFC South, lost to Chiefs in wild-card game

          Preseason power ranking: 13

          The additions of quarterback Brock Osweiler, running back Lamar Miller and rookie receivers Will Fuller and Braxton Miller give the offense the jolt it needs this year. A season after starting four quarterbacks, the Texans find consistency in Osweiler, and the defense continues to be one of the best in the league. Led by J.J. Watt and a healthy Jadeveon Clowney, the Texans' pass rush is even better than last year. Houston has a tough road schedule but overcomes that to win the division for the second straight season.

          It might be that Osweiler cannot play up to the four-year, $72 million contract Houston awarded him in March. Though the Texans stocked up on offensive weapons during the offseason, Osweiler and Lamar Miller will be playing behind an offensive line that cannot hold its own. Injuries to rookie center Nick Martin and left tackle Duane Brown left a piecemeal offensive line, and the offense never really clicks. The AFC South had a down season last year, but all four teams improved during the offseason. With the better competition in the division and a tough road schedule, DeAndre Hopkins and Watt aren’t able to single-handedly win games for Houston, and the Texans struggle to finish above .500.

          Texans' percentage chance to win each game

          Sept. 11 vs. Chicago: 68.7

          Sept. 18 vs. Kansas City: 52.0

          Sept. 22 @ New England: 35.9

          Oct. 2 vs. Tennessee: 74.3

          Oct. 9 @ Minnesota: 43.1

          Oct. 16 vs. Indianapolis: 57.1

          Oct. 24 @ Denver: 32.2

          Oct. 30 vs. Detroit: 69.8

          Nov. 13 @ Jacksonville: 51.2

          Nov. 21 @ Oakland: 45.2

          Nov. 27 vs. San Diego: 62.9

          Dec. 4 @ Green Bay: 32.6

          Dec. 11 @ Indianapolis: 38.9

          Dec. 18 vs. Jacksonville: 65.9

          Dec. 24 vs. Cincinnati: 54.8

          Jan. 1 @ Tennessee: 54.4

          Sarah Barshop’s game-by-game predictions

          Any confidence we have in Osweiler stems from the fact that Bill O’Brien started four different quarterbacks last year and made the playoffs. Osweiler took 23 sacks in his eight games with Denver, so he’ll feel right at home if the Texans’ line can’t protect him. -- Dan Graziano

          Watt is easily the best player in Houston, if not the league. Despite dealing with injuries last season, he still led the league with 17.5 sacks. The three-time Defensive Player of the Year tilts the field when he is playing. He was activated off the physically unable to perform list Saturday after his July back surgery, and he's expected to play in the opener against the Bears.

          For the first time in Lamar Miller’s career, he will be the go-to guy in an NFL backfield. Last season in Miami, he averaged just 15.06 touches per game. Expect that number to increase as the Texans involve him heavily in their offense, both on the ground and through the air.

          The key to the Texans’ repeating as AFC South champions is consistency from Osweiler, as well as receivers Fuller, Miller and Jaelen Strong being able to help out Pro Bowler Hopkins and give their QB more options. The 25-year-old Osweiler has a lot of help, and if he can put up the numbers and run the offense as coach Bill O’Brien and general manager Rick Smith expect, the Texans could win the division for the second year in a row.