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Indianapolis Colts
Last Season: 8-8
Second in AFC South
Preseason power ranking: 18
Quarterback Andrew Luck. The Colts finished 8-8 and a game out of the playoffs while not having Luck for nine games last season. The $140 million quarterback is healthy, and despite the numerous flaws on the roster, he has proved over and over throughout his career that he knows how to mask the Colts' problems. He has led Indianapolis to the playoffs three times and has a 35-20 record in the regular season. It also helps that the Colts play in the AFC South, one of the weaker divisions in the NFL. Having Luck under center for every meaningful snap of all 16 games gives the Colts the opportunity to win the division and get an automatic playoff berth for the third time in his career.
The Colts showed why there's every reason to be concerned about Luck staying healthy when they pulled him earlier than expected in the third preseason game. The offensive line, the weak link of the offense every year with Luck, still is not a dependable unit. Poor blocking up front was the main reason the Colts had to use five quarterbacks last season. Indianapolis gave up 118 quarterback hits, the second most in the NFL last season. No Luck, no chance for the Colts to get back to the playoffs.
Colts' percentage chance to win each game
Sept. 11 vs. Detroit: 71.9
Sept. 18 @ Denver: 34.7
Sept. 25 vs. San Diego: 70.8
Oct. 2 @ Jacksonville: 59.6
Oct. 9 vs. Chicago: 69.9
Oct. 16 @ Houston: 42.5
Oct. 23 @ Tennessee: 57.8
Oct. 30 vs. Kansas City: 53.6
Nov. 6 @ Green Bay: 34.8
Nov. 20 vs. Tennessee: 77.5
Nov. 24 vs. Pittsburgh: 51.8
Dec. 5 @ N.Y. Jets: 46.5
Dec. 11 vs. Houston: 60.8
Dec. 18 @ Minnesota: 44.6
Dec. 24 @ Oakland: 37.7
Jan. 1 vs. Jacksonville: 67.1
Mike Wells’ game-by-game predictions
The richest contract in NFL history screams confidence, but Luck is coming off injury, and veteran backup Matt Hasselbeck has been replaced by Scott Tolzien. No problem if Luck can stay healthy and get that 58.1 career completion percentage up. Until he does, we’ll leave the Colts here. -- Dan Graziano
The Colts didn't pursue any pass-rushers during the offseason. That means their ability to get to the quarterback will depend heavily on the performance of 35-year-old linebacker Robert Mathis. He tied for the team lead in sacks with seven last season, and the Colts might need him to crack double digits in that category this season. Coach Chuck Pagano showed how much he values Mathis' pass-rushing skills when he held him out the entire preseason to avoid any possibility of him getting injured.
Receiver Donte Moncrief had a career-high 733 receiving yards in 2015 without Luck. They had good chemistry in the preseason, and the third-year player out of Ole Miss is looking as if he'll be Luck's possession receiver. It will not be the least bit surprising if Moncrief leads the Colts in receptions this season.
The Colts have started the season 0-2 in both of the past two seasons. A slow start again this season could spell trouble. The schedule shifts against them starting in Week 8, when they have back-to-back games against Kansas City and at Green Bay before closing out the season against Pittsburgh, the New York Jets, Houston, Minnesota, Oakland and Jacksonville, all teams that could be competing for a playoff spot.