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What if the Jets retained Aaron Rodgers for the 2025 season?

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Did Aaron Rodgers take a shot at Jets in postgame news conference? (0:43)

Aaron Rodgers describes how thankful he is to have played for "two" historical NFL franchises following the Steelers' loss to the Texans. (0:43)

FLORHAM PARK, N.J. -- Let's hit the rewind button and go back ... back ... back ... to last Feb. 6 at the New York Jets' training facility. Let's go back to the moment Aaron Rodgers walked into the office to meet with newly hired coach Aaron Glenn, who had requested a face-to-face meeting.

Let's pretend it didn't go down the way it did. Let's say it unfolded like this:

Instead of firing Rodgers on the spot in what was later described by the quarterback as an ugly divorce, Glenn embraces the future Hall of Famer and convinces him to return to the Jets for a third season to be the catalyst in their culture change.

The Aaron & Aaron Show.

Where would the Jets be now? Would they be better than a 3-14 team, heading into the offseason on another desperate quarterback search?

What if?

No two words better describe Rodgers' legacy with the Jets. What if he hadn't ruptured his Achilles in the 2023 opener? What if he had stuck around in 2025?

It's difficult to predict how the Achilles season would've played out if Rodgers had remained healthy. They went 7-10 with Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle and Trevor Siemian at quarterback, so it's probably fair to assume they would've been a winning team with a four-time MVP at the controls.

As for 2025, it would've been better than 3-14, that's for sure.

Despite Rodgers' ugly finish Monday night -- 146 passing yards and two turnovers returned for touchdowns in a 30-6 loss to the Houston Texans in the AFC wild-card round -- Rodgers played well enough in the regular season for the Pittsburgh Steelers to win the AFC North with a 10-7 record.

Interestingly, his passing metrics were strikingly similar to his 2024 Jets numbers. In Pittsburgh, his Total QBR was 44.3, down a fraction from 44.7 in 2024. He threw fewer yards (3,897 to 3,322) and fewer touchdowns (28 to 25) with the Steelers, and his yards-per-attempt (6.7) remained the same.

But he won twice as many games because of a better supporting cast and better coaching, taking a veiled swipe at the Jets after Monday night's loss: "There's only a few really special places in the league that have the tradition and the town and the organization, and I'm thankful to have played for two of them" -- a reference to the Steelers and Green Bay Packers.

He has no affinity for the Jets, who officially released him last March. Rodgers, 42, hasn't announced his future plans, though he said before the season this was most likely his final year.

On the Jets, Rodgers would've provided competent quarterback play, which is more than they got from Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor and Brady Cook. The Jets finished last in passing yards (2,385) and tied for last in touchdown passes (15).

Would a 6-11 or 7-10 season have justified another year of Rodgers? His larger-than-life persona might have clashed with Glenn's alpha personality, but that cuts two ways. Rodgers' leadership and experience would've helped the young players.

"I would've kept him," a longtime personnel executive said this week. "I thought it was a mistake [to release him]. Were they a playoff [team] with him? Probably not, but they would've won a few more games. Without him, they were terrible and lost all credibility."

Let's take a look.

Rodgers' presence probably would've changed the entire approach to the season, which is to say it would've been all-in, win-now. There would've been no in-season rebuilding with an old quarterback, so the Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams trades likely wouldn't have happened.

Which means they'd be in a tough spot right now, shy of draft capital. They'd be a quarterback-needy team with probably only the usual four draft picks in the first two rounds of the 2026 and 2027 drafts, as opposed to eight - enough bargaining power, in theory, to maneuver for a top quarterback. The Gardner and Williams trades brought back three first-round picks and a second rounder.

They'd also be stuck with dead cap charges from Rodgers' contract into 2027. As it stands now, he counts $28 million on the 2026 cap, but it ends there. Had he returned under his contract, the Jets would've incurred close to $60 million in dead cap, which could've been spread over 2026 and 2027.

There would've been no need to sign Fields if Rodgers had remained, so that must be factored into the financial ramifications. It would've saved them $30 million in cash (Fields' two-year guarantee) and a chunky cap hit. If released this offseason, which is likely, Fields' total cap hit will be $22 million, which can be spread over two years. So there's that.

Rodgers' presence also would've stunted the development of first-year coordinator Tanner Engstrand's offense. Presumably, Engstrand would've deferred to Rodgers, allowing him to run his offense, just as the previous playcallers did in 2023 and 2024. It might have benefitted them in the short term, but they'd be starting from scratch this spring.

"I think we've got our system in for the most part," Engstrand said. "There's always going to be more, but I think we have a good foundation of what we're trying to build as a team and as a culture in the building, and how we want to play, and what our brand is."

It would've been the Rodgers brand if Glenn had opted to ride with the aging star -- and that would've countered Glenn's team-building philosophy. Like his mentor, Bill Parcells, Glenn isn't into celebrity quarterbacks; he said so himself.

The circumstances were different in Pittsburgh, where former coach Mike Tomlin, who stepped down Tuesday, had built such a strong culture that it was able to absorb the force that is Rodgers.

Glenn knew when he accepted the job that he'd have to make a quarterback change, either in 2025 or 2026. He decided to rip off the bandage sooner than later.

The sting proved greater than anyone anticipated.