Now that the dust has pretty much settled on NFL free agency (other than a few stragglers) and the draft is quickly approaching, bettors can now look ahead to the 2025 season, as win totals for all 32 teams have been released at ESPN BET.
The Buffalo Bills opened with the highest posted win total in the league at 11.5 wins (they now have company), with the New York Giants opening with the lowest number at 3.5 wins. The Giants signed Russell Wilson on Tuesday night and moved to 5.5, leaving the Cleveland Browns with the lowest win total on the board (4.5).
Betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh, Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Pamela Maldonado offer their first reaction to the opening win totals at ESPN BET and pick which over/under they would take right now ahead of the draft.
For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.
Fortenbaugh's first bet: Washington Commanders UNDER 10.5 wins (-150)
Jayden Daniels is awesome. I'm not disagreeing with that assessment. I am, however, highly concerned about the abundance of red flags signaling an upcoming regression for Washington. For starters, the Commanders finished 12-5 last year despite a +94 point differential, which is more indicative of a 10.6-win team. Second, Washington went 8-4 in one-score games. Those are two metrics which demonstrate how Dan Quinn's team performed above expectation in 2024. Throw in a defense that ranked 19th in EPA, a much tougher schedule this season that features crossovers with the AFC West and NFC North and a unit that concluded 2024 as the fifth-healthiest team in the NFL and you've got plenty of reasons to suspect a regression for the Commanders in 2025.
Mike Clay's projection: 8.2 wins
Walder's first bet: Cleveland Browns OVER 4.5 wins (-135)
There's just way too much uncertainty with the Browns, I think, but we can take advantage of that by taking the over on such a low total. Sure, Kenny Pickett is currently their QB1, but I'd be shocked if he is by September. I think Kirk Cousins is still in play for the Browns, along with Shedeur Sanders or another rookie in the draft. I like that head coach Kevin Stefanski is calling the plays on offense again, and it's not like the rest of the roster is totally devoid of talent. There's a lot of worlds where Cleveland gets to five wins.
Mike Clay's projection: 5.0 wins
Solak's first bet: San Francisco 49ers UNDER 11.5 wins (-115)
The talent exodus from San Francisco has been extreme, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Even if Robert Saleh can resurrect the magic he worked with that unit in his first stint with the 49ers, the defensive line depth has been devastated and the secondary lacks reliable starters beside nickel corner Deommodore Lenoir.
The 49ers were projected for the same number of wins as the Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles when odds were posted (SF's number has since moved to 10.5), but we can't be positive yet that Brock Purdy is anything more than a middle-tier quarterback who is incapable of elevating a poor roster. The under is best here.
Mike Clay's projection: 8.7 wins
Maldonado's first bet: Los Angeles Chargers OVER 10.5 wins (+120)
Year 2 under Jim Harbaugh is where this team locks in -- physical, smashmouth football built from the trenches up. The Chargers beefed up the offensive lline with Mekhi Becton, Bradley Bozeman and Andre James. Add Najee Harris, who's had 1,000+ rushing yards every season? That's a Harbaugh backfield. Khalil Mack stays. Tuli Tuipulotu enters Year 3. The defense won't live on the field anymore -- the offense will control tempo, bleed the clock and protect leads. Herbert doesn't need to play hero ball. He just needs to be efficient, and when defenses cheat up, hit them deep off play-action. Their home slate is winnable, and their road slat is manageable. Eleven wins is well within reach. Chargers finally have an identity and a head coach who knows exactly how to win.
Mike Clay's projection: 8.5 wins