Nine weeks of the 2026 NFL season have passed. Some teams are riding high, while others are grasping for wins.

Much of what we believed we knew when it all began in September has been validated -- but lots of surprises, blockbuster trades and injuries have changed the course of our early-season predictions.

AFC South-leading Jacksonville went all-in on the defensive side with a trio of trades before the deadline this week, while John Harbaugh has the NFC East-leading New York Giants believing they hired the right man. No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza has yet to take the reins in Las Vegas but will this week after another big trade; there's not a single rookie who has stood out enough so far to say that the race for ROY isn't wide open. The NFC North remains the strongest division halfway through the season, while both Super Bowl participants have looked shaky of late. Of note, neither Seattle (11) nor New England (16) was ranked in the FPI top 10 at this point last season.

With that in mind, ESPN's 32 NFL team reporters took part in a midseason reset. Here, they lay out what they've learned through the first nine games and frame what's to come over the final nine weeks and beyond. Teams are ranked below by where each stands in ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) rankings, and each club's current odds to win the division are also included as well as Eric Moody's non-QB fantasy football nuggets.

Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH

San Francisco 49ers

FPI rank: 1
Chances to make the playoffs: 99.3%
Chances to win their division: 94.6%

First-half storyline: The 49ers have jumped to a 7-1 start despite more injuries to key players, including to DE Nick Bosa (calf) and WR Mike Evans (Achilles tendinitis). But the Niners have again overcome those issues to find themselves in the driver's seat for the NFC's No. 1 seed with wins against three of the last four teams in the 2025 playoffs.

QB stat to know: Brock Purdy leads the NFL with a QBR of 82.5 and is firmly in the mix for the NFL's Most Valuable Player award. Perhaps more important given the other injury issues is that Purdy has started and finished all eight games, providing stability at the game's most important position.

Second-half storyline: Despite the hot start, the 49ers believe they can be better. Some of that will depend on health, but San Francisco has five starters in their first or second seasons -- and even more youngsters in key roles. If those players continue to develop, it could push the Niners to another level. -- Nick Wagoner

Fantasy nugget: Brock Purdy started the season averaging 27.0 fantasy PPG in the first three games. Since then, he has scored 18.1 fantasy PPG and has topped 20 points just once. He has the fourth-toughest remaining QB schedule, with games against the Vikings, Seahawks, Rams and Chiefs still on tap. It may be worth putting him on the trade block this week. -- Moody

Buffalo Bills

FPI rank: 2
Chances to make the playoffs: 99.8%
Chances to win their division: 96.3%

First-half storyline: Historic offense, problematic defense: The Josh Allen-Joe Brady partnership is a huge argument for continuity, with the Bills scoring at rates comparable to those of the best offenses in NFL history. But coordinator Jim Leonhard's defense, especially the secondary, is leaky and still figuring out communication issues far too late in the season.

QB stat to know: Allen has maintained a league-leading and career-best yards per attempt average (8.6) despite an injury that kept his best deep threat (WR DJ Moore) out of the lineup for the better part of four games. Even if it's not Brady's primary emphasis, the 2026 Bills are more explosive than they were even in Allen's best years.

Second-half storyline: The Thanksgiving to Christmas gauntlet: From Thanksgiving Day through Christmas Day, the Bills will play five consecutive games against contenders: Kansas City, at New England, at Green Bay, Chicago, at Denver. It's the toughest stretch of the season at the most important point of the season, and should decide whether the Bills hold on as AFC Super Bowl favorites. -- Nick Suss

Fantasy nugget: DJ Moore has a 26% target share, 41% air yard share and 14.3 fantasy PPG in his four full games. That is high-end WR2 production, but he will be tested to maintain it, as he has the toughest remaining fantasy schedule for WRs. -- Moody

Cincinnati Bengals

FPI rank: 3
Chances to make the playoffs: 98.6%
Chances to win their division: 79.5%

First-half storyline: Joe Burrow has officially found his groove, and the offense has never been better. The Bengals are third in points per drive (2.82), first in third-down conversion percentage (53.6%) and in fewest number of drives without a first down (18.3%). The engine that is built to lead the team is doing exactly that.

QB stat to know: Burrow has been otherworldly at stretching the field vertically, which is as much a credit to Burrow as it is to his star receivers -- Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. On throws of 15 air yards or more, Burrow has a 99.3 QBR and a whopping 18.1% completion percentage over expectation, per ESPN Research.

Second-half storyline: Can the offense continue its torrid pace? The offense has masked the defensive inconsistencies that have popped up in various moments. Third downs and allowing big rushing plays have been issues. But if the Bengals can keep forcing turnovers and keep their defensive red zone efficiency high (currently fifth), that might be enough. -- Ben Baby

Fantasy nugget: The Bengals have arguably the best passing attack in the NFL at the moment. Joe Burrow is the fantasy QB2, while Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase are both top-five WRs. That will be tested as the Bengals have the seventh-toughest remaining fantasy schedule for QBs and third-toughest for WRs. Meanwhile, struggling Chase Brown has the third-best fantasy RB schedule. -- Moody

Jacksonville Jaguars

FPI rank: 4
Chances to make the playoffs: 98.8%
Chances to win their division: 93.4%

First-half storyline: The Jaguars are beating teams at a historic pace. They have four victories by 23 or more points, which is the most in a single season in franchise history. They're also the fifth team since 1999 with four victories by 23 or more points in the first eight games of the season -- three of the previous four teams that did that reached the Super Bowl, per ESPN Research.

QB stat to know: Trevor Lawrence has the NFL's lowest off-target percentage at 9.2%, which is by far the best percentage of his career (15% in 2025 was his previous best). Coach Liam Coen has praised Lawrence's footwork, which was the first thing he worked to fix in the spring before his first season as coach in Jacksonville in 2025, as a reason for his improved accuracy.

Second-half storyline: The Jaguars must keep the pass rush from being a liability. They are seventh in pressure rate but have only 16 sacks -- just four ahead of last-place Miami. Edge rushers Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker only have a combined five sacks. That's not going to be good enough against Caleb Williams, Aaron Rodgers, C.J. Stroud and Dak Prescott, who are all left on their schedule. -- Mike DiRocco

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Fantasy nugget: Bhayshul Tuten is 15th among RBs in fantasy PPG and is third in the NFL in forced missed tackles rate. Tuten leads the Jags in goal-line carries and has scored three of their four goal-line TDs. In fact, he and Kenneth Walker III are the only RBs in the NFL with at least three rushing and receiving touchdowns this season. -- Moody

Denver Broncos

FPI rank: 5
Chances to make the playoffs: 96.6%
Chances to win their division: 57.0%

First-half storyline: Despite some fairly epic struggles on offense, the Broncos are the league's foremost escape artist. Of their seven wins, five are in one-score games and they have won an NFL-record 16 consecutive one-score regular-season games dating back to last season. As right tackle Mike McGlinchey said: "Maybe it's OK that we defy logic.''

QB stat to know: While he continues to put together his best work in the moments that matter the most, Bo Nix and the Broncos' offense as a whole have been unable to consistently put big plays together. Nix is 30th among 31 qualifying quarterbacks in air yards per attempt (5.9), ahead of only Patrick Mahomes. The difference is Mahomes and his teammates have created more catch-and-run yardage after those throws as Mahomes is ninth in the league in yards per attempt overall (7.7) while Nix is 28th (6.0).

Second-half storyline: The injuries in the secondary are a growing concern -- the Broncos have had four starters in the group miss at least two games this season -- but the offense's inability to make things easier on itself will really determine just how much of a postseason threat this team can be. They are tied for 29th in plays of at least 20 yards, ahead of only the Titans and Eagles, and are 30th in three-and-out drives (a whopping 28.3% of their possessions), ahead of only the Vikings and Eagles. -- Jeff Legwold

Fantasy nugget: Jonah Coleman has led Broncos RBs in snaps in each of the past three weeks, reaching 82% in Week 9. He leads the Broncos' backfield in explosive run rate, forced missed tackles rate and yards after contact per carry. Denver has the best remaining fantasy schedule for RBs, which gives Coleman league-winning potential. -- Moody

Chicago Bears

FPI rank: 6
Chances to make the playoffs: 90.4%
Chances to win their division: 41.6%

First-half storyline: The Bears firmly established themselves as a top NFC contender with a 7-2 record at their Week 10 bye. Their first-half trajectory sparked an all-in approach when they gave up three draft picks to land All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons, which paid instant dividends on defense. Caleb Williams returned from his hamstring injury a more efficient passer, and the Bears have not trailed at any point over their past four games (all wins) as they rank seventh in scoring (26.8 PPG).

QB stat to know: Williams leads the NFL in completion percentage (82.8%) when not pressured. He is ahead of the pace for the highest single-season completion percentage in that situation by a season-qualifying quarterback since ESPN first tracked pressures in 2009.

Second-half storyline: Most Bears games during the back half of the season will carry the intensity of playoff matchups. Chicago faces four NFC North opponents during Weeks 12-18 and needs to gain ground in the division after early losses to Minnesota and Green Bay. The Bears also play two division leaders in Jacksonville (first, AFC South) and Buffalo (first, AFC East), both of which rank top four in scoring. -- Courtney Cronin

Fantasy nugget: Luther Burden III has averaged 20.1 fantasy PPG in the four games since Caleb Williams returned, with at least 17 points in all four. For the season, the only WRs averaging more than 20.1 fantasy PPG are Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Puka Nacua and CeeDee Lamb. And Burden might stay hot, as the Bears have the fifth-best remaining fantasy WR schedule. -- Moody

Kansas City Chiefs

FPI rank: 7
Chances to make the playoffs: 95.9%
Chances to win their division: 42.6%

First-half storyline: The biggest improvement on the roster -- and a reason the Chiefs are back to being contenders in the AFC -- is the arrival and elite production of running back Kenneth Walker III. Walker and quarterback Patrick Mahomes have lifted the Chiefs to a 6-2 start. The defense has played its part, too, by creating 11 takeaways.

QB stat to know: Mahomes hasn't completed a pass of over 20 air yards since Week 4, when the Chiefs beat the Raiders and receiver Tyquan Thornton suffered a dislocated ankle that required surgery. Since then, Mahomes has had to matriculate the ball down the field with short passes and passes that are completed behind the line of scrimmage.

Second-half storyline: Mahomes left Sunday's game with a right elbow injury, one that could linger for the remainder of the season. The reason Mahomes suffered his injury is because the Chiefs' pass protection, with rookie left tackle Kahlil Benson and right tackle Jaylon Moore, has been lacking. Can Benson and Moore improve to give Mahomes enough time to operate the Chiefs' passing attack? -- Nate Taylor

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Fantasy nugget: Kenneth Walker III is top-two among RBs in rushing yards, total touchdowns, fantasy points, explosive runs and missed tackles forced. He is the only must-start option on the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes has topped 20 fantasy points only once. Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice are in play weekly, but both have seen their fantasy floor and ceiling lowered this season. -- Moody

Detroit Lions

FPI rank: 8
Chances to make the playoffs: 79.6%
Chances to win their division: 29.6%

First-half storyline: Detroit's defense got off to a rough start while being riddled with injuries. Second-year defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard faced heavy criticism after his defense allowed 30 or more points in three of the first four games, but head coach Dan Campbell continued to back Sheppard as the defense has improved, allowing fewer than 20 points in three straight games (Weeks 7-9), tying their longest streak over the past 10 seasons, per ESPN Research.

QB stat to know: Prior to Sunday's 19-9 win versus Miami, Lions QB Jared Goff went 30 consecutive games with a passing TD, which was the longest active streak in the NFL, per ESPN Research. Goff now has 54 wins with the Lions organization since being traded from the Rams in 2021, tying Bobby Layne for the second most in franchise history.

Second-half storyline: The Lions' secondary has gotten healthier, which has made their defense tough to beat when getting pressure, and it'll be interesting to see if they can continue trending upward. After being sidelined for over a year, Detroit has also recently opened the 21-day practice window for All-Pro safety Kerby Joseph, who is coming off a chronic left knee injury. -- Eric Woodyard

Fantasy nugget: Jahmyr Gibbs is scoring 26.2 fantasy PPG. That would be the 14th most by a RB in the Super Bowl era. Only Christian McCaffrey (twice), Todd Gurley and Le'Veon Bell have averaged that number or higher since 2010. The only thing in his way from a historic season is the second-toughest remaining fantasy RB schedule. -- Moody

Pittsburgh Steelers

FPI rank: 9
Chances to make the playoffs: 80.8%
Chances to win their division: 19.7%

First-half storyline: Can coach Mike McCarthy and QB Aaron Rodgers' reunion jump-start the Steelers' offense and make them real postseason contenders? All eyes have been on the odd couple through the season's first half, and though their relationship had a tumultuous end in Green Bay, the pair have seemingly resolved past issues and found success together in a 6-2 start.

QB stat to know: Rodgers is averaging 6.5 air yards per attempt. While McCarthy has marveled at the strength of Rodgers' arm, the numbers show the quarterback is playing a much different style than early in his career in Green Bay. The 6.5 air yards per attempt average is the second lowest of Rodgers' career in a season in which he played at least 16 games. Like last season, when Rodgers averaged a career-low 5.8 air yards per attempt, the Steelers' passing game is finding success in short throws.

Second-half storyline: Can the defense hold up against other playoff-contending teams? After working through growing pains under new coordinator Patrick Graham, the Steelers' defense showed improvement through a four-game win streak. They enter the season's second half ranked sixth in EPA per play with a top-three rushing defense and 26 sacks. The back half of the schedule includes games against teams with high-powered offenses including the Bengals, Texans and Jaguars. -- Brooke Pryor

Fantasy nugget: Jaylen Warren is averaging 141.5 yards and 20.1 fantasy points per game in his past six games. Those are must-start, RB1 numbers. Unfortunately, DK Metcalf remains a poor fit with Aaron Rodgers. He has just three catches on 15 deep targets and has fewer than eight fantasy points in three of his past four games. Need a positive? The Steelers have the second-best fantasy WR schedule remaining. -- Moody

Green Bay Packers

FPI rank: 10
Chances to make the playoffs: 69.6%
Chances to win their division: 14.7%

First-half storyline: The running game. Or lack of it. In the first eight games, the Packers' best rushing output as a team was 86 yards in Week 4 against the Buccaneers. They had the fewest rushing yards of any team in NFL history that had a winning record through eight games. They still rank last in the NFL in rushing yards per game (68.2) even after a 129-yard performance on Sunday. It's been partially on the inconsistent offensive line and partially on the running back group, which has played without Josh Jacobs for the majority of the season. However, massive production from receivers Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, who rank third and fourth in the NFL in receiving yards respectively, has helped make up for it.

QB stat to know: Jordan Love has multiple touchdowns (passing or rushing) in all nine games this season, the longest NFL streak to start a season since Kyler Murray's in 2020 and the second-longest streak in Packers history, behind only Aaron Rodgers, who had 15 straight to open the 2011 season (when he won MVP). Love's deep throws have been on point. He has two games with at least six completions of 20 or more air yards. No other quarterback has even one such game.

Second-half storyline: The return of Micah Parsons. The Packers' defense has more than held its own while Parsons recovers from last year's knee surgery -- thanks in part to the creativity of new defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon -- but the addition of one of the best pass rushers in the NFL could turn the Packers into one of the most complete teams in the league. Parsons could return from his torn ACL as soon as Week 12 against the Rams. -- Rob Demovsky

Fantasy nugget: Jordan Love has been airing it out more and it has transformed the Packers' offense. Since Week 5, he has averaged 7.2 deep pass attempts and 24.0 fantasy PPG (compared to 4.5 deep pass attempts and 16.2 fantasy PPG in Weeks 1-4). The change has made Love a must-start fantasy QB. Christian Watson and Matthew Golden look like potential league winners. -- Moody

Minnesota Vikings

FPI rank: 11
Chances to make the playoffs: 64.5%
Chances to win their division: 14.2%

First-half storyline: The defense has been arguably the NFL's best and has, along with special teams, carried the team all season. The blitz is now their base scheme, with defensive coordinator Brian Flores sending at least one extra rusher on 71.6% of opposing dropbacks. Conversely, the offense ranks among the NFL's worst.

QB stat to know: Kyler Murray, Carson Wentz and Max Brosmer have combined for a 39.0 QBR, fourth worst in the NFL. Murray's six starts has produced the lowest production totals since his rookie season with the Arizona Cardinals. Is it the quarterbacks? The scheme? Playcalling? Collective poor performances usually have multiple explanations.

Second-half storyline: The Vikings put themselves in a great spot with a 6-0 start, including consecutive NFC North wins to start the season, but their lack of offensive production threatens to limit their ceiling. That's why they acquired quarterback Kirk Cousins, hoping to elevate their offense enough to support a defense that is likely to get leaky at some point in a 17-game season. -- Kevin Seifert

Fantasy nugget: Justin Jefferson has averaged a career-low 56.1 receiving yards per game, but that should change with Kirk Cousins back. In four seasons with Cousins, Jefferson averaged 98 yards per game and his 17-game pace was 1,671 yards and 8.5 touchdowns. Plus, the Vikings have the seventh-best remaining WR schedule. -- Moody

Seattle Seahawks

FPI rank: 13
Chances to make the playoffs: 47.2%
Chances to win their division: 3.2%

First-half storyline: It hasn't been a smooth ride for the reigning Super Bowl champions. With a first-time coordinator in Brian Fleury and plenty of moving parts in the starting lineup, their offense (15th in points per game at 22.4) has lagged well behind their defense (third in points allowed at 16.6). Quarterback Sam Darnold has struggled, and backup Drew Lock has outplayed him while filling in due to injury.

QB stat to know: In three games -- which include two starts against a bottom-tier Arizona defense -- Lock has a Total QBR of 84.4. Darnold's is 49.2, weighed down by the nine interceptions he has thrown in six games since returning from a glute injury he suffered early in the season opener. He's sidelined again with quad and rib injuries.

Second-half storyline: With the bye in Week 11, Seattle's offense could soon be at full strength. That unit's struggles seem attributable to injuries as well as Fleury's growing pains. In addition to Darnold, running backs Zach Charbonnet and Jadarian Price have both missed extensive time, while the O-line has been in flux. Left guard Quenton Nelson, acquired via trade with the Colts, will be a boost once he returns from a knee procedure. -- Brady Henderson

Fantasy nugget: Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the league in target share (36%) and he has 50% of his team's receiving yards. His 25.8 fantasy PPG would be the fifth most by a WR in the Super Bowl era. As for the RBs, Zach Charbonnet saw the bulk of carries in Week 9, while Jadarian Price saw more targets. They have the sixth-best remaining RB fantasy schedule. -- Moody

Los Angeles Rams

FPI rank: 13
Chances to make the playoffs: 40.1%
Chances to win their division: 2.2%

First-half storyline: Awaiting Myles Garrett's return from knee surgery

After Aaron Donald came out of retirement, the Rams were eager to see what he and Myles Garrett would look like rushing the passer. Instead, the pair did not play together until Week 9 -- and the Rams got a glimpse of how successful they may be with Garrett's three-sack performance.

QB stat to know: After throwing eight interceptions in each of his past two seasons, Matthew Stafford has nine in nine games. Stafford has been without wide receivers Davante Adams and Puka Nacua and tight end Terrance Ferguson at times due to injury and the Rams have struggled to consistently move the ball.

Second-half storyline: Can the Rams overcome their 2-4 start to make the playoffs in a competitive NFC?

The Rams are no stranger to strong second halves, as they are 22-8 from Weeks 9-18 since 2023. But L.A. has a tough schedule with matchups against the Packers, Chiefs, Niners and Seahawks twice in that stretch. The Rams have a 37.9% chance of making the playoffs, according to ESPN FPI. -- Sarah Barshop

Fantasy nugget: Blake Corum has at least 11 touches in four straight games and a TD in five in a row. He has 10 red zone carries to Kyren Williams' seven in the past four games. Williams remains an RB1 due to his pass-game and goal-line usage. Meanwhile, Corum has become a weekly RB2 or flex, especially considering he has the fourth-highest explosive run rate among RBs. -- Moody

New England Patriots

FPI rank: 14
Chances to make the playoffs: 65.1%
Chances to win their division: 3.7%

First-half storyline: Inconsistency and injuries. Wide receiver A.J. Brown sustained a high ankle sprain in the third quarter of the season opener, leading him to miss four games, and he also missed two games due to a knee flare-up. That highlighted what has been a seasonlong health struggle for the team, which has already used four of its eight allotted return-from-IR designations and has an abundance of options for the remaining spots.

QB stat to know: Drake Maye has thrown three interceptions in a single half twice this season, and he now has 11 picks on the season. There is only one other quarterback who has thrown three interceptions in a half this season -- Atlanta's Michael Penix Jr. (Week 8, at Tampa Bay).

Second-half storyline: The Patriots enter the second half with a minus-11 turnover differential, tied with the Colts (2-7) for worst in the NFL. They've only created eight takeaways, which ties for fourth fewest in the league. Meanwhile, they've turned the ball over 19 times, tied for the highest total. Can they be more disruptive on defense, and clean it up on offense? -- Mike Reiss

Fantasy nugget: Drake Maye has been electric in fantasy, with 26.3 fantasy PPG since Week 4. The next three weeks are fun as he faces the Lions, Chargers and Bills. After that, it's a gauntlet of the Vikings, Chiefs, Jets and Broncos in the final month of the fantasy season. Putting him on the trade block after his next big game isn't a bad idea. -- Moody

Houston Texans

FPI rank: 15
Chances to make the playoffs: 44.3%
Chances to win their division: 6.6%

First-half storyline: Not finishing. If the Texans closed out half of their losses they would be at least 5-3 instead of 3-5. The surprising part is that it's been the defense that hasn't stepped up after being one of the best last season.

QB stat to know: C.J. Stroud has 16 touchdowns to only two interceptions. He's playing like an MVP and has looked like the type of player that he was trending toward after his historic rookie year.

Second-half storyline: Can the Texans do it again and go on a hot streak in the second half to make the playoffs? -- DJ Bien-Aime

Fantasy nugget: The Texans have struggled to run the ball regardless of who their RB1 is. On the season, their RBs are averaging the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game (67.3) and the second-fewest rushing yards per carry (3.4). Their RBs have scored double-digit fantasy points only three times and topped 13 just once. They have the eighth-hardest remaining fantasy RB schedule. -- Moody

Dallas Cowboys

FPI rank: 16
Chances to make the playoffs: 44.2%
Chances to win their division: 42.6%

First-half storyline: For the third straight year the defense is scuffling. It's as if it doesn't matter what type of coordinator (older former head coach, younger former head coach, youngest defensive coordinator in team history) the Cowboys choose. Too many breakdowns. Not enough plays. And an offense that has weapons galore has lacked consistency.

QB stat to know: While Dak Prescott had a 44-yard touchdown pass and a 47-yard completion to set up the game-winning drive against the Colts, the deep ball production has dropped. In the first four games, he completed 60% of his passes of 10 or more yards with five touchdowns without an interception. In the past five, he has completed 49% of such passes (16th in the league) with five touchdowns and two interceptions.