The Indianapolis Colts have their franchise quarterback back in Andrew Luck, but his return doesn't automatically make them locks to win the AFC South for the third time since 2013. The rest of the teams in the division should be better, but having Luck healthy keeps Indianapolis in the mix of things in the division. I had the Colts going 10-6 in the predictions I made in April. I was going to change their record to 9-7, but the Vikings are expected to be without quarterback Teddy Bridgewater (knee) this season. So Indianapolis' record will remain at 10-6 despite its uncertainty on the offensive line, injuries to key players and an aging defense.
Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 11, vs. Detroit Lions, 4:25 p.m. ET
Lions coach Jim Caldwell faces his former team for the first time since being fired by the Colts following their 2-14 season in 2011. The Lions suffered a substantial blow in the offseason when receiver Calvin Johnson retired at the age of 30. Detroit doesn't have an offense capable of staying with Luck, especially with the game being played at Lucas Oil Stadium. Record: 1-0.
Week 2: Sunday, Sept. 18, at Denver Broncos, 4:25 p.m. ET
This is one of the worst possible early-season opponents for the Colts. They’ll be taking their suspect offensive line into Denver to face the defending Super Bowl champions and one of the NFL’s best defenses. Record: 1-1.
Week 3: Sunday, Sept. 25, vs. San Diego Chargers, 4:25 p.m. ET
Quarterback Philip Rivers and the Chargers beat the Colts in San Diego in 2013. But San Diego has missed the playoffs in five of the past six seasons. Record: 2-1.
Week 4: Sunday, Oct. 2, at Jacksonville Jaguars (game played in London), 9:30 a.m. ET
The Jaguars had an impressive offseason on paper, but this will be a revenge game for the Colts. Luck was injured when the Colts were embarrassed 51-16 by the Jaguars when these two teams met last December in Jacksonville. Record: 3-1.
Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 9, vs. Chicago Bears, 1 p.m. ET
Jerrell Freeman returns to Indianapolis where he spent his first four seasons. It won’t be pleasant trip back for the linebacker and his Chicago Bears teammates. Jay Cutler will be Jay Cutler and Chicago doesn’t have enough on defense to slow the Colts down. Record: 4-1.
Week 6: Sunday, Oct. 16, at Houston Texans, 8:30 p.m. ET
The Colts have won three straight games against the Texans in Houston. It won’t be four in a row because the Texans have finally found a quarterback in Brock Osweiler so that J.J. Watt and the defense doesn’t have to win almost every game for them. Record: 4-2.
Week 7: Sunday, Oct. 23, at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m. ET
The last four games between these two teams in Nashville -- all Colts victories -- have been decided by an average of seven points. Expect another close one, with Luck improving to 2-0 against Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota. Record: 5-2.
Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 30, vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 1 p.m. ET
This is a rematch of the incredible 2013 wild-card game in which Luck led the Colts back from a 28-point second half deficit in their 45-44 victory. The Chiefs likely won’t have a 28-point lead this time around. But they also won't blow whatever lead they do have. Record: 5-3.
Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 6, at Green Bay Packers, 4:25 p.m. ET
Luck vs. Aaron Rodgers. Football fans couldn't ask for a better matchup. Too bad Luck's first trip to Lambeau Field will be a frosty one because Rodgers shreds apart a shaky Colts defense. Record: 5-4.
Week 10: BYE
Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 20, vs. Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m. ET
The Colts have won eight straight over the Titans in Indianapolis. There's no reason to believe that streak won't get extended to nine games. Record: 6-4.
Week 12: Thursday, Nov. 24, vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, 8:30 p.m. ET
Different stadium, same result for the Colts against the Steelers in their first Thanksgiving Day game since 2007. The Colts have been blown out by a total of 52 points in their past two meetings against Pittsburgh. Ben Roethlisberger and speedy receiver Antonio Brown will continue to have a field day against an Indianapolis defense that didn't sack the quarterback in either of those two games. Record: 6-5.
Week 13: Monday, Dec. 5, at New York Jets, 8:30 p.m. ET
The Jets got the best of Luck and the Colts on Monday Night Football last season when they forced them into five turnovers. Luck learns his lesson and bounces back to lead the Colts to a rare road victory outside of the division. Record: 7-5.
Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 11, vs. Texans, 1 p.m. ET
The Texans got their first victory in Indianapolis in 14 tries last season. The Colts need this game to make sure the Texans don't get the tiebreaker over them in what could end up being a tight race in the AFC South. Record: 8-5.
Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 18, at Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m. ET
I had the Colts losing this game prior to the Vikings losing Bridgewater. He'll likely still be out with his knee injury, which means the advantage shifts to the Colts despite the Vikings still having running back Adrian Peterson, the NFL's premier running back. Record: 9-5.
Week 16: Saturday, Dec. 24, at Oakland Raiders, 4:05 p.m. ET
The odds would have definitely been in the Colts' favor a couple of seasons ago, but the Raiders continue to get better. The Colts better protect Luck in this one because the Raiders added former Seattle Seahawks linebacker Bruce Irvin to go with Khalil Mack, giving them them a lethal one-two pass-rush combo. Record: 9-6.
Week 17: Sunday, Jan. 1, vs. Jaguars, 1 p.m. ET
There won't be any resting of Luck or any other key player in this game. The Colts will need this victory to stay in contention to win what could be a tight AFC South division race. Record: 10-6.