<
        >

          New England Patriots

          Tom Brady will still be the difference in AFC East despite suspension

          • Mike Reiss, ESPN Staff WriterSep 5, 2016, 10:00 PM
            Close
              Mike Reiss is an NFL reporter at ESPN and covers the New England Patriots. Reiss has covered the Patriots since 1997 and joined ESPN in 2009. In 2019, he was named Massachusetts Sportswriter of the Year by the National Sports Media Association. You can follow Reiss on Twitter at @MikeReiss.
            Follow on X

          MORE PREVIEWS: ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN | CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAC | KC | LA | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | OAK | PHI | PIT | SD | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WAS

          New England Patriots

          Last Season: 12-4

          First place, AFC East

          Lost in AFC Championship Game

          Preseason power ranking: 3

          After serving a four-game NFL suspension to open the season, Tom Brady returns as quarterback in Week 5, and the difference between him and the AFC East’s other three starting quarterbacks -- Ryan Fitzpatrick (Jets), Ryan Tannehill (Dolphins), Tyrod Taylor (Bills) -- is extreme. With Brady as the one on-field constant, the Patriots have won 12 division titles since 2002 realignment, which is an NFL high.

          The Patriots stumble out of the gate with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo starting the first four games -- at Arizona and at home against Miami, Houston and Buffalo -- and dig themselves into too big of a hole. According to ESPN’s Stats & Information, teams that go 1-3 in their first four games have a 14.2 percent chance to qualify for the postseason (since 1990), with 0-4 teams getting a 1.2 percent likelihood.

          Patriots’ percentage chance to win each game

          Sept. 11 @ Arizona: 32.7

          Sept. 18 vs. Dolphins: 70.7

          Sept. 22 vs. Texans: 63.8

          Oct. 2 vs. Buffalo: 64.2

          Oct. 9 @ Cleveland: 74.9

          Oct. 16 vs. Cincinnati: 68.0

          Oct. 23 @ Pittsburgh: 39.7

          Oct. 30 @ Buffalo: 55.2

          Nov. 13 vs. Seattle: 69.7

          Nov. 20 @ San Francisco: 65.2

          Nov. 27 @ N.Y. Jets: 52.0

          Dec. 4 vs. Los Angeles: 78.4

          Dec. 12 vs. Baltimore: 70.9

          Dec. 18 @ Denver: 44.7

          Dec. 24 vs. N.Y. Jets: 72.1

          Jan. 1 @ Miami: 60.5

          Mike Reiss' game-by-game predictions

          Garoppolo was ready to go a year ago. He can keep the Jet Ski upright until Brady gets back in Week 5. If Brady had been playing all 16, the Patriots might have been a 10.0. Come Week 5, the confidence index will soar. -- Dan Graziano

          The two-tight end set. No team has run it more than the Patriots since 2010, and it isn’t even close, with those numbers expected to grow with Rob Gronkowski (6-foot-6, 265 pounds) and Martellus Bennett (6-6, 273) teaming up as potentially the team’s best one-two combo in Bill Belichick’s 17 seasons as coach. As Belichick said, quarterbacks love throwing to those two.

          Wide receiver Chris Hogan’s 33-yard touchdown catch from Brady in the third preseason game -- one of the team’s top offensive highlights -- was a sneak preview of what could be coming. A free-agent signing from Buffalo, Hogan quickly has become a top-three option at the position.

          With so much attention on quarterbacks, let’s not overlook the defense, which produced eight turnovers through the first three preseason games and might be called upon to win games as the Patriots navigate through their early-season schedule without Brady.