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New Orleans Saints
Last Season: 7-9
Third in NFC South
Preseason power ranking: 27
Because of quarterback Drew Brees, the Saints have a much higher ceiling than most mediocre NFL teams. They still managed seven wins in each of the past two years despite posting some of the worst defensive numbers in NFL history, and they can’t possibly be worse on defense this season. If they can just get the D back to around 20th or even 25th in the NFL, the Saints could be a 10-win team. New Orleans is capable of outscoring anyone – as it showed by taking the 15-1 Carolina Panthers down to the final minutes in each of their two meetings last year. And the passing game might be even more potent with the arrival of tight end Coby Fleener and rookie wide receiver Michael Thomas.
Those back-to-back 7-9 finishes weren’t a fluke -- they’re the new reality for a team with several flaws. The defense has shown some signs of improvement this summer, but it’s hard to expect a major overhaul, especially after summer injuries to first-round defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins (likely out until October), defensive end Hau’oli Kikaha (likely out for the season) and cornerback Keenan Lewis (released). The offense should still be very good, but the offensive line has emerged as a big concern this summer after some awful preseason performances by the starting unit. If they don’t find someone they can trust at both guard positions, Brees might not have enough time in the pocket to take advantage of all of his playmakers.
Saints' percentage chance to win each game
Sept. 11 vs. Oakland: 53.7
Sept. 18 @ N.Y. Giants: 38.2
Sept. 26 vs. Atlanta: 58.4
Oct. 2 @ San Diego: 38.9
Oct. 16 vs. Carolina: 48.2
Oct. 23 @ Kansas City: 27.1
Oct. 30 vs. Seattle: 43.9
Nov. 6 @ San Francisco: 42.3
Nov. 13 vs. Denver: 47.0
Nov. 17 @ Carolina: 25.4
Nov. 27 vs. Los Angeles: 61.0
Dec. 4 vs. Detroit: 61.7
Dec. 11 @ Tampa Bay: 41.1
Dec. 18 @ Arizona: 25.3
Dec. 24 vs. Tampa Bay: 59.1
Jan. 1 @ Atlanta: 39.2
Mike Triplett’s game-by-game predictions
Brees’ passing yardage total last year was his lowest since 2010 but was still a league-leading 4,870 yards. At 37, he probably has a couple more years of high-end production. -- Dan Graziano
Cornerback P.J. Williams. The second-year pro is poised to start despite missing his entire rookie season with a hamstring injury. Williams has drawn rave reviews this summer – but that’s still a scary proposition for a defense that shattered the NFL record for touchdown passes allowed in a season last year. And behind Williams, the Saints might go with two undrafted rookies, De’Vante Harris and Ken Crawley. The Saints’ fate will rest on how they all handle their growing pains.
Too bad the Saints can’t just play fantasy football, because this is the area where they’re most loaded. I would list dynamic wide receiver Brandin Cooks in this category – unless he already had his breakout last year, when he caught eight touchdown passes over the final nine games and finished with 1,138 receiving yards. If Cooks doesn’t count, then go with rookie Michael Thomas, a big, sure-handed receiver who has been the star of camp. Thomas’ touches may be somewhat limited since he’s a No. 3 receiver, but even coach Sean Payton said he’d try to have Thomas on his fantasy roster.
The Saints are stuck in neutral. They have a quarterback who is still capable of winning a Super Bowl at age 37, but New Orleans has been wasting the back end of Brees’ prime because of its inability to rebuild the defense and the offensive line around him. A playoff run is still possible this year – but the Saints will be counting on a lot of young defensive players to develop quickly.