No, the sky is not falling after the New Orleans Saints' woeful preseason performances. I still think the offense will be among the best in the NFL -- with even more playmakers surrounding Drew Brees this year. I still think the defense can’t help but improve. And I still think a playoff push is possible if the Saints are able to win enough of those coin-flip games that come down to the fourth quarter.
However, I am dropping them from 8-8 to 7-9 since the last time we did these game-by-game predictions in April to reflect some of the hits they’ve taken this summer (injuries on defense, lack of progress from their young guards). Here’s how I see the season playing out:
Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 11 vs. Oakland Raiders, 1 p.m. ET
While New Orleans is stuck in neutral, the Raiders are a team on the rise, led by sensational pass-rusher Khalil Mack, quarterback Derek Carr and receiver Amari Cooper. I'll give a slight edge to Oakland. But this will be a defining game right out of the gate -- exactly the kind of “pick ‘em” matchup the Saints need to win to make a playoff push. Record: 0-1.
Week 2: Sunday, Sept. 18 at New York Giants, 1 p.m. ET
Both teams have revamped their defenses since last year’s 52-49 Arena Football League facsimile inside the Superdome. The Giants spent mega-millions in free agency, while the Saints took a more subtle approach aimed toward cleaning up mental errors with defensive coordinator Dennis Allen and middle linebacker James Laurinaitis. Like all defenses, they’ll have their hands full with Odell Beckham Jr., though. Record: 0-2.
Week 3: Monday, Sept. 26 vs. Atlanta Falcons, 8:30 p.m. ET
This is the marquee game on the schedule -- the 10-year anniversary of New Orleans’ return to the Superdome after Hurricane Katrina in 2006 on Monday Night Football. The Saints have had the Falcons’ number during the past decade (15-5 since ’06). It’s especially hard to pick against them in this setting. Record: 1-2.
Week 4: Sunday, Oct. 2 at San Diego Chargers, 4:25 p.m. ET
Brees returns to San Diego for the first time since he joined the Saints in 2006. Normally, I would pick against the Saints in a West Coast game on a short travel week. But I’m not picking against Brees in a spot where he has something to prove (he’s 2-0 against his former team so far; one at London, one at New Orleans). Record: 2-2.
Week 5: Bye
Week 6: Sunday, Oct. 16 vs. Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m. ET
This will be another defining game for the Saints. Against the reigning NFC champs, at home, coming off a bye. And this is my only change from April’s predictions -- I’m no longer giving New Orleans a victory here. The Saints do always play their division rivals tough. But Carolina is so stacked on both sides of the ball, led by last year’s MVP QB Cam Newton and former defensive player of the year Luke Kuechly. Record: 2-3.
Week 7: Sunday, Oct. 23 at Kansas City Chiefs, 1 p.m. ET
The Saints traditionally have trouble in outdoor games against unfamiliar foes. And this particular opponent is really good. The Chiefs had four Pro Bowlers on defense last year while ranking third in the NFL in points allowed. Record: 2-4.
Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 30 vs. Seattle Seahawks, 1 p.m. ET
Another great defense and another loss. The most compelling angle in this game will be the return of Seahawks tight end Jimmy Graham to New Orleans, assuming he is fully recovered from his ruptured patellar tendon. Record: 2-5.
Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 6 at San Francisco 49ers, 4:05 p.m. ET
I don’t love cross-country road trips for the Saints (and this season is stacked with them). But the 49ers are a more flawed team than New Orleans. And if I don’t sneak in a win here, I’ll be projecting an awfully long drought. It will be interesting to see what San Francisco looks like under new coach Chip Kelly. Record: 3-5.
Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 13 vs. Denver Broncos, 1 p.m. ET
I came very close to picking the upset here. I could see this being an eye-opening win for the Saints if things come together and they’re making a playoff push. The Broncos have lost a lot of talent since their Super Bowl win (QB Peyton Manning, QB Brock Osweiler, DT Malik Jackson, LB Danny Trevathan). But Denver still has one of the NFL’s elite defenses, led by Super Bowl MVP Von Miller. Record: 3-6.
Week 11: Thursday, Nov. 17 at Carolina Panthers, 8:25 p.m. ET
You never know what might happen in these rivalry games -- the Saints routed the Panthers on the road on a Thursday night two years ago. But I’m not picking the Saints to knock off Newton and Kuechly in their place on a short week this time around. Record: 3-7.
Week 12: Sunday, Nov. 27 vs. Los Angeles Rams, 1 p.m. ET
The intangibles will be in New Orleans’ favor, coming off a nine-day break against an opponent traveling cross-country. L.A.’s new team has a great defense, too. But I’ll take New Orleans over the Rams and the No. 1 pick in the draft, QB Jared Goff. Record: 4-7.
Week 13: Sunday, Dec. 4 vs. Detroit Lions, 1 p.m. ET
I always like the Saints against teams with similar pass-first styles like Detroit's, especially at home. The Lions have become a lot less intimidating during the past two years, losing DT Ndamukong Suh and WR Calvin Johnson. Record: 5-7.
Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 11 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m. ET
I was tempted to switch this from a loss to a win because I like the Saints’ chances of growing up as the season goes along and playing their best football in December. But that wouldn’t be fair to the Bucs -- a young team on the rise that should only continue to improve in quarterback Jameis Winston's second season. Record: 5-8.
Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 18 at Arizona Cardinals, 4:05 p.m. ET
Maybe the easiest pick on this entire list. Another West Coast trip, another tough matchup against a great defense. The Cardinals are good enough to win a Super Bowl, led by that defense, QB Carson Palmer, young RB David Johnson and veteran WR Larry Fitzgerald. Record: 5-9.
Week 16: Saturday, Dec. 24 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m. ET
The Bucs have suddenly become known for their offense, led by Winston, running back Doug Martin and receiver Mike Evans (whom I can’t recommend strongly enough for fantasy). But they also have two elite defensive players who always cause fits for the Saints -- DT Gerald McCoy and LB Lavonte David. Regardless, I’m going with the split in this series. Record: 6-9.
Week 17: Sunday, Jan. 1 at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m. ET
I’m probably not being fair to the Falcons by going with a Saints sweep again this year. Receiver Julio Jones might be the best player in the entire division. And I think Atlanta could be neck and neck with New Orleans and Tampa Bay for second place in the South. But I like the Saints’ chances of finishing strong and they have an uncanny history of success at Atlanta. Record: 7-9.