Week 1 usually brings a lot of upsets to the NFL since nobody knows for sure just how good teams will be in 2018. Despite all the advanced statistics we have, even our Football Outsiders preseason projections are going to be off a good amount.
Unfortunately, the same things that make it tough for Vegas to set the odds also make it tough for us to figure out which odds are most likely to be incorrect. Many of the games this week have very small lines, with only three games having a line of more than a touchdown.
Based on what we know from the FO preseason projections, these are the most likely upsets with lines of at least three points:
Cleveland (+3.5) vs. Pittsburgh
Dallas (+3) at Carolina
New York Giants (+3) vs. Jacksonville
Oakland (+4) at Los Angeles Rams
Seattle (+3) at Denver
For our first Upset Watch of the year, we will revisit Football Outsiders' most surprising preseason projection, and look at why the Giants are a better bet to beat Jacksonville than most people realize.
Upset Watch: New York Giants (+3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
You know that Jacksonville had a stellar defense last year. You may not know that the Jaguars had an average offense, not a bad one. But what matters is looking at how they put together an average offense, because it's tied in some ways to that defense.