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Week 6 college football betting lookahead: Florida overrated?

AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack

College football lookahead is the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season.

In Week 6 we examine the least-heralded of the 18 unbeatens, as well as sandwich eaters, road warriors and bye week experts.

All lines and totals from Circa Sportsbook as of Sunday.


Openers

First impressions from the schedule and opening lines.

Week 6 features two games each on Thursday and Friday, and 44 on Saturday. For the first time this season, no FBS team is matched up with an FCS opponent. There are only five nonconference games in the group, not counting matchups involving independents.

No teams are playing their first road game for the first time this week, as Penn State, Navy and Iowa State were last week. Boise State is just now playing its first "true" road game in Week 6, but the trip to Jacksonville to face Florida State in the opener wasn't a very neutral site. Iowa, Texas and Baylor are leaving their home states for the first time this season.

Four games pit ranked teams against each other: Auburn at Florida, Iowa at Michigan, Michigan State at Ohio State and California at Oregon. The first of those is the lone matchup between unbeatens, the week's marquee matchup and the destination for ESPN's College Gameday. Let's start there:

No. 7 Auburn Tigers (-2.5) at No. 10 Florida Gators

3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (CBS)

At the beginning of the season, both the polls and the futures market declared Auburn the sixth-best team in the SEC. Raise your hand if you still think that. And raise the other one if you still think that Florida is a top-10 team. The Gators' original poll position and zero in the loss column have kept this team high in the unsophisticated estimation of pollsters who barely see beyond the win-loss record, but the bettors who move the needle don't see it that way. It's unsurprising that this number rose from a pick 'em to Auburn -2 in the first 15 minutes after opening. Expect continued upward movement.