Intro by Doug Kezirian
Betting handle is almost always commensurate with fan interest, and Sunday Night Football is a prime example. Tom Brady's much-anticipated Foxborough return is generating massive interest from the betting public.
"This will be the biggest volume regular season game of the year," Caesars Sportsbook Vice President of Trading Craig Mucklow said. "There isn't a primetime matchup all season of this magnitude and the betting volume will reflect that."
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers opened as 4.5-point favorites but the line immediately jumped to -7. And that's where is has stood all week but once the public arrives and kickoff nears, the lopsided action could drive it higher.
"It would probably cap at 7.5 because you will get the sharp money buying back at the 7.5. The public will drive the number up and the sharps will take the other side eventually," Mucklow said. Brady and Belichick formed arguably the most impressive betting tandem of quarterback and head coach. They went 189-128-7 ATS (59.6%), which ranks second all-time. And now they face off for the first time, and Belichick is catching a full touchdown as a home underdog.
Every Friday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (4-8-2, 0-4 last week), Tyler Fulghum (3-6, 2-2), Joe Fortenbaugh (13-7-1, 4-1) and Anita Marks (64-35, 13-9), Stats & Information's Seth Walder (13-17, 4-7) and Mackenzie Kraemer (0-2, 0-4), sports betting Deputy Editor David Bearman (8-3-1, 4-0) and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz (11-5, 3-2) will provide their top plays across the NFL landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 4 of the NFL season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday (unless otherwise indicated).
8:20 p.m. ET game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5, 49) at New England Patriots
Fortenbaugh: I think the Patriots are overvalued. Not just in this game, but in general. That's what two decades of elite production will do to the perceptions of the masses. Since Tom Brady exited for Tampa, New England is 8-11 both straight up and against the spread. This season, Bill Belichick's club is an underwhelming 1-2 despite having faced questionable quarterback opposition in Tua Tagovailoa, rookie Zach Wilson and Jameis Winston. Brady gets it done.
Pick: Bucs -0.5 in 6-point teaser with Packers -0.5
Moody: Jakobi Meyers has been one of the few bright spots for a Patriots offense that ranks 22nd in total yards per game. He has developed a rapport with rookie quarterback Mac Jones and leads the team in targets (29), receptions (19), receiving yards (176) and receiving air yards (293). He is positioned to exceed 63.5 receiving yards against the Buccaneers' secondary. Tampa Bay has allowed exceptional receiving performances from Amari Cooper (139 yards), Calvin Ridley (63) and Cooper Kupp (96) this season. Meyers could be the next receiver to join this list. (I have more thoughts on the big game and special props here.)
Pick: Meyers over 63.5 receiving yards (-115)
Walder: This line is not respecting the kind of opportunity Mike Evans has been given this year. There is only one receiver -- one! -- who has more expected air yards based on the quantity and depth of their targets, expected completion percentage and expected YAC (per NFL Next Gen Stats) than Evans this year, and that's Cooper Kupp. Evans' 205 receiving yards pales in comparison to the 270 we would expect from an average QB-receiver combination, given the targets he has received. But here's the thing: Brady and Evans aren't average! Positive regression is incoming.
Pick: Evans over 58.5 receiving yards (-115)
Kezirian: I was close to pulling the trigger and laying the points but I am just brainwashed by Bill Belichick's success. It's really hard to fade him, especially when he has burned me the few times I have. In 2020, the Patriots somehow beat the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night as home underdogs. It was quite a surprise. As for this matchup, I do not trust Tampa's secondary and Mac Jones could conceivably hang enough points. But ultimately, I think the Bucs get the win.
Pick: Bucs -0.5 in 6-point teaser with Bengals -1.5
4 p.m. ET games
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-4.5, 55)
Fulghum: Both of these offenses are ridiculously dynamic. Kyler Murray is a co-MVP favorite. Matthew Stafford has taken his game to an elite level with Sean McVay's playcalling. The Cardinals have the second-highest no-huddle rate in the NFL. The Rams are throwing at the second-highest situation-neutral rate in the league. I see far fewer paths to the under than the over in this matchup.
Pick: Over 55
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5, 52)
Fortenbaugh: This is a good "buy low" spot on the Seahawks, who have won 12 of the past 14 meetings between these two rivals. Additionally, take note that 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is a brutal 3-13-2 against the spread as a home favorite. The difference in this game will be San Francisco's depleted secondary going up against a Seattle passing attack that currently ranks first in the NFL in yards per attempt (10.4) with a quarterback in Russell Wilson who is completing 73.3% of his passes this season. I would like the Seahawks if it got to +3 or better.
Pick: Seahawks team total over 25.5 points
Marks: Give me the better quarterback and the points. Wilson is 65% ATS after a loss and as a road underdog and will be facing a beat-up 49ers secondary. Jimmy Garoppolo, on the other hand, has a backfield that is in shambles, and although he has just one interception, he has had three "turnover-worthy" plays.
Pick: Seahawks +8.5 in 6-point teaser with Panthers +10.5
Pick: DK Metcalf OVER (75.5) receiving yards -115
Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-1, 45)
Schatz: This is one where I'm counting on the continued importance of preseason projections in the early part of the season. We knew going into this season that the Baltimore and Denver defenses should be good, and both were projected in the top 10. Denver is fifth so far this year in DVOA, and Baltimore is only 20th. Baltimore plays at an average pace in neutral situations, but the Broncos rank 31st in neutral pace and dead last in total pace (one play every 32 seconds, compared to an NFL average of 28 seconds).
Pick: Under 45
Walder: Marquise Brown overs absolutely killed me last year ... but I just can't resist. In terms of opportunity -- based on air yards, expected completion percentage and expected YAC based off of NFL Next Gen Stats -- Brown is averaging an expected 88.9 receiving yards per game this season, the fourth-highest rate in the league right behind Stefon Diggs. Diggs' line is at 83.5, but Brown's is down at 52.5. While it's reasonable at this point to expect Brown to come in under his expectation, the differential here is huge. I expect he'll convert his opportunity into, well, more than 52 yards.
Pick: Brown over 52.5 receiving yards (-155)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers (-6.5, 45.5)
Bearman: Week 1 feels so long ago. Remember when the Steelers went into Buffalo to knock off the Super Bowl-contending Bills and the Packers no-showed vs. the Saints? A strong first-half defense, a blocked punt and maybe some early-season rust from the Bills led us to think the Steelers were contenders. Since then, Big Ben has struggled mightily and the offensive line has been awful, leading to home losses to the Raiders and Bengals in which Pittsburgh was never in either game. After trailing at home on MNF to the Lions, the Packers have put together six solid quarters of football to show us they are who we thought they were. Aaron Rodgers has completed 75% of his passes for six TDs and no picks in the past two games, both in prime time. He should have no trouble at home against a struggling Steelers team that will not be able to match points. I jumped on this Monday morning as soon as I saw it was under a TD, as it feels more like a 10- to 14-point Packers win.
Pick: Packers -6.5
Fortenbaugh: The Steelers are a blocked punt at Buffalo away from being 0-3 thanks to a brutal offensive line and an over-the-hill quarterback who plays in boots made of cement. Green Bay's defense has turned the corner from that Week 1 debacle against the Saints and currently ranks a respectable 12th in the NFL in opponent yards per play (5.5). Pittsburgh has given me no reason to overthink this one.
Pick: Packers -0.5 in 6-point teaser with Bucs -0.5
Marks: Ben Roethlisberger is struggling and has had to get rid of the ball quickly behind a bad offensive line. His QBR is just 35.5 and his average yards per pass sits around 5. His receivers are dropping balls too. And Pittsburgh's defense has had its own share of issues. The Steelers did not record a sack in last week's loss to the Bengals, and now have to go up against Rodgers. All signs point to Green Bay.
Pick: Packers -6.5, Packers -0.5 in 6-point teaser with Saints -1.5
Kezirian: I am a bit reluctant to lay the points with Green Bay because I think we get a solid effort from Pittsburgh, as the Steelers also start to get healthier. However, 39-year-old Ben Roethlisberger has less mobility than the actual Big Ben clock and Aaron Rodgers is a total beast. It's hard to envision the Pack not getting the win at home. I believe Pittsburgh is the AFC North's worst team.
Pick: Packers -0.5 in 6-point teaser with Bengals -1.5
1 p.m. ET games
Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 54.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Moody: Tyreek Hill has caught only eight of 11 targets for 73 receiving yards over the past two games. He's due for an eruption, and the Eagles' shaky secondary provides him a great spot to do so. Hill has averaged 113.7 receiving air yards and 85.7 receiving yards since 2020. His output in Week 4 should be more in line with his recent per-game averages.
Pick: Hill over 76.5 receiving yards (-115)