As soon as games wrap up on a Sunday, sportsbooks have to react quickly and set their early lines for the following week. They aren't the only ones: This season, we're running ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) immediately upon conclusion of the 4 p.m. ET window so we can compare our numbers with those from Caesars Sportsbook.
That early comparison, before the market has fully materialized, is probably our best chance to find a line that's a little off. And it gives us a chance to potentially get ahead of line movement.
Our point of comparison is the FPI's implied line. The FPI's standard game predictions are means that don't account for the intricacies of football's scoring -- like 3 and 7 being key numbers -- but our implied line represents a median prediction given an understanding of the scoring environment. That's a long way of saying this is a better apples-to-apples comparison for betting.
Because we're trying to jump on early lines immediately after games, I think the best way for us to measure success is through closing line value. More than anything, we're looking for movement in the right direction. So, I'm keeping a running tally -- for both games and futures -- in this spot each week.
Now, let's dive into Week 16!
Closing line value record (W-L-T): 18-11-12
All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-10, 42)
FPI implied line: Eagles -5.5
All of a sudden the FPI has become Joe Judge's fan? I'm not quite sure how that happened, but this is the second week in a row that the Giants have led off this page. (Buyer beware: It did not pan out last week in terms of either closing line value or result against the spread.) And again, the number I've put above is working under the assumption that Mike Glennon is the QB. (It would be similar with Jake Fromm.)
The Eagles are an average team. In fact, the FPI rated them as an exactly average team -- with a 0.0 rating -- entering Sunday. The Giants are (assuming a split between Daniel Jones and Glennon at QB) almost four points worse than that going forward. But let's just say we are overrating the Giants. It is possible! Even if we gave them a rating of negative-6 -- ahead of only the bottom tier of the Jaguars, Texans, Lions and Jets -- we still couldn't get to 10 points. Even if we generously gave two full points of home-field advantage, that would only make the Eagles eight points on average (and it might be lower when looking for median instead of mean).