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College football betting nuggets - Should Wake Forest or Oregon bettors be worried?

A.T. Perry and Wake Forest are road favorites against Army. Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire

Saturday

No. 2 Cincinnati Bearcats (-27.5, 49) at Navy Midshipmen, Noon ET on ESPN2

  • Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS this season, all as a favorite.

  • Navy is 18-6-1 ATS against AP top-10 teams since the 1978 FBS/FCS split, the best such cover percentage in FBS over that span (min. 15 games).

  • Navy is 32-17-2 ATS in conference games since joining the AAC in 2015, including 14-6 ATS in its last 20 such games.

  • Navy has been a double-digit underdog in five straight games (3-1 ATS in previous four), its longest streak since 2000 (also five straight).

  • This would be the largest underdog Navy has been under Ken Niumatalolo (first full season as head coach was in 2008). Previous was 24-point underdog at No. 11 UCF in 2018. The Midshipmen are 22-9 ATS as an underdog of at least 24 points since the 1978 FBS/FCS split, the best such cover percentage in FBS over that span (min. 20 games).

  • The under is 16-7 in Cincinnati road games under Luke Fickell (since 2017).

No. 3 Oklahoma Sooners (-38.5, 67.5) at Kansas Jayhawks, Noon ET on ESPN

  • Oklahoma is 16-24 ATS as a double-digit favorite under Lincoln Riley (since 2017). However, the Sooners are 4-3 ATS under Riley when favored by 35 or more points.

  • This will be the 104th straight game Kansas is an underdog in a conference game, by far the longest active streak in FBS. UNLV and UConn are tied with the second-longest such streak at 23.

  • Kansas is 0-5-1 ATS this season, one of five remaining teams without an ATS win (Indiana, Clemson, Missouri and New Mexico).

  • Kansas has failed to cover seven straight home games as an underdog, the second-longest active streak in FBS behind Akron (11 straight).

  • Kansas has covered four straight games against AP top-10 opponents, tied for the longest active streak in FBS (Arizona State, Army and Air Force).

Northwestern Wildcats at No. 6 Michigan Wolverines (-23.5, 51), Noon ET

  • Michigan is 5-1 ATS this season, its best cover percentage through six games under Jim Harbaugh (since 2015).

  • Michigan is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games off more than six days rest, including 4-8 ATS under Harbaugh.

  • Northwestern is 33-18 ATS as a road underdog under Pat Fitzgerald (since 2006), including 14-4 ATS since 2015. Only Purdue (15-4 ATS) has been better since 2015 (min. 15 games).

  • Northwestern is 20-9 ATS in road games and 11-4-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2015.

  • Northwestern is 25-12 ATS in conference games over the last five seasons.

Illinois Fighting Illini at No. 7 Penn State Nittany Lions (-23.5, 46.5), Noon ET on ABC

  • Penn State is 4-20-1 ATS following a loss under James Franklin (since 2014).

  • Penn State has covered three straight against Illinois (3-1 ATS overall under Franklin).

  • Penn State has covered five of its last six games as a favorite.

  • Penn State has failed to cover four straight conference games when favored by at least 20 points.

  • Penn State is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a double-digit favorite while Illinois is 1-5 ATS in its last six as a double-digit underdog.

  • The total has gone under in four straight games involving Illinois.

No. 16 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-3, 52.5) at Army Black Knights, Noon ET

  • Wake Forest is 2-9-1 ATS as a road favorite under Dave Clawson (since 2014), the worst such cover percentage in FBS over that span (min. five games).

  • Army has covered four straight as an underdog and is 25-16-1 ATS overall as an underdog under Jeff Monken (since 2014).

  • The under is 7-0 when Army faces a ranked opponent under Monken.

  • The total has gone under in four straight meetings, including 3-0 with Clawson and Monken at the helm.

Wisconsin Badgers (-3, 40) at No. 25 Purdue Boilermakers, 3 ET

  • Wisconsin is 3-11 ATS against ranked opponents since 2018, including seven straight ATS losses, tied for the longest active streak in FBS (Maryland).

  • Wisconsin has covered 11 of the last 15 meetings dating to 2003.

  • Wisconsin is 20-9 ATS in road games under Paul Chryst (since 2015), including 17-6 ATS as a road favorite.

  • Purdue is 16-6 ATS as an underdog under Jeff Brohm (since 2017).

  • The under is 6-0 in games involving Purdue this season. The Boilermakers are the only remaining team with no games having gone over the total this season.

No. 8 Oklahoma State Cowboys at Iowa State Cyclones (-7, 47), 3:30 ET

  • This would be the third instance that an AP top-10 team is an underdog of six or more points against an unranked opponent since the 1978 FBS/FCS split. Each of the previous two times, an unranked USC team won and covered.

  • Oklahoma State has covered four straight games.

  • Oklahoma State has covered 12 of its last 15 games as an underdog.

  • Oklahoma State is 10-3 outright under Mike Gundy (since 2005) against Iowa State.

  • The under is 10-3 in Oklahoma State road games since 2019.

  • Iowa State is 15-8 ATS against ranked opponents under Matt Campbell (since 2016), including 5-2 ATS against AP top-10 teams.

  • The under is 15-8 when Iowa State faces a ranked opponent under Campbell, including 11-4 since 2018.

No. 10 Oregon Ducks at UCLA Bruins (-2, 59.5), 3:30 ET on ABC

  • Oregon is 1-5 ATS this season, including four straight ATS losses.

  • Oregon is 5-1 ATS when the line is between -3 and +3 since 2018 (first full season under Mario Cristobal).

  • Oregon has failed to cover six straight conference games.

  • UCLA is 3-8 ATS as a home favorite under Chip Kelly (since 2018).

  • UCLA has lost 10 straight games outright against ranked opponents dating to 2011.

LSU Tigers at No. 12 Ole Miss Rebels (-9, 76), 3:30 ET

  • LSU is 11-4 ATS as an underdog since 2017 (first full season under Ed Orgeron).

  • LSU is 15-8-1 ATS against ranked opponents since 2017.

  • LSU is 23-14-1 ATS in conference games since 2017 (2-2 ATS this season).

  • This would be the largest favorite Ole Miss has been against LSU since the Rebels were a 10.5-point favorite on October 30, 1993 (L, 19-17).

  • Four straight meetings have gone over the total.

Clemson Tigers at No. 23 Pittsburgh Panthers (-3, 48), 3:30 ET on ESPN

  • Clemson has been favored in 43 straight conference games and 48 straight games against ACC opponents (including conference championship games). Both those streaks are the second-longest active streaks behind Alabama (52 and 57). Both are the second-longest streaks by an ACC team since the 1978 FBS/FCS split behind Florida State, which was favored in its first 96 games in the ACC (1992-2003).

  • Clemson has failed to cover seven straight games dating to last season, tied for the second-longest active streak in FBS with New Mexico. Only Missouri (10) has a longer active streak.

  • Clemson is 18-10 ATS as an underdog since 2009 (first full season under Dabo Swinney).

  • Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS this season, all as a favorite.

  • Pittsburgh is 11-5-2 ATS under Pat Narduzzi (since 2015) when the line is between -3 and +3.

Tennessee Volunteers at No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (-25.5, 67), 7 ET on ESPN

  • Alabama has covered eight straight games as a home favorite, the longest active streak in FBS.

  • Alabama is 10-4 ATS under Nick Saban (since 2007) against Tennessee.

  • Alabama has covered 10 of its last 13 conference games.

  • Alabama is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games as a double-digit favorite.

  • Tennessee has failed to cover six of its last 20 games against AP top-five teams dating to 2009. Josh Heupel is 1-4 ATS in his career against AP top-15 teams, although none of those games came against top-five opponents.

  • Tennessee has failed to cover six of its last 20 games as a double-digit underdog dating to 2015. This will be just the second time in Heupel's career that he is a double-digit underdog (0-1 ATS with Tennessee).