Entering Week 8, there has yet to be a single upset by an underdog of at least 7.5 points. That is tied for the most weeks into a season without an upset that large in the Super Bowl era (2005).
Kansas City is one of several teams hoping to avoid that large upset. The Chiefs are 13-1 to win the Super Bowl after opening at 5-1. They are the ninth team in the Super Bowl era to have a losing record through seven games despite being favored in every game.
The Dallas Cowboys are the only remaining team unbeaten against the spread (ATS).
Season Recap
Home teams: 9-4 ATS last week; 49-58 ATS this season (9-4 SU last week, 53-54 this season)
Favorites: 7-6 ATS last week; 50-57 ATS this season
Unders: 8-5 last week; 58-47-2 this season
Best teams ATS: Dallas (6-0), Green Bay (6-1), Arizona (6-1)
Worst teams ATS: Washington (1-6), New York Jets (1-5), San Francisco (1-5)
Best over teams: Dallas (5-1), Atlanta (4-2), Los Angeles Rams (4-2-1)
Best under teams: Chicago (6-1), Los Angeles Chargers (5-1), Seattle (4-1-1), Pittsburgh (4-1-1)
Teams favored in every game: Kansas City, Tampa Bay
Teams underdog in every game: Houston, Detroit, New York Jets, Philadelphia
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-13.5), Sunday at 1 ET
Miami has failed to cover four straight games. Brian Flores is 10-5 ATS as a road underdog. Buffalo is 6-2 ATS as a home favorite since the start of last season and 8-2 ATS in its last ten games in that spot. Buffalo was a 3.5-point road favorite in their Week 2 meeting.
Buffalo won 35-0. Buffalo has covered games by an average of 11.3 points per game, 2nd-best in the NFL.
Miami has a -8.7 cover margin per game, second-worst in the NFL.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3), Sunday at 1 ET
Carolina has failed to cover in four straight games after starting 3-0 ATS. Carolina is 3-0 ATS when Christian McCaffrey plays and 0-4 ATS when he does not.
Atlanta is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings (since 2016).
Carolina is 6-2 ATS as a road underdog under Matt Rhule (2-6 SU).
Atlanta has covered back-to-back games as a favorite, though it is 9-16 ATS as a favorite since 2018.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Detroit Lions, Sunday at 1 ET
Neither team has been favored in a game all season. The only other teams that have not been favored are Houston and the New York Jets.
Detroit is 4-3 ATS despite its 0-7 outright record. Of the 53 teams to start 0-7 since the 1970 merger, Detroit is the third to have a winning record ATS (2017 San Francisco: 4-3, 1977 Tampa Bay: 4-2-1).
Philadelphia was 1-6 ATS as a favorite last season. Philadelphia (-3) lost to Dallas by 20 in its only favorite role in a Jalen Hurts start.
Philadelphia is 3-9 ATS on the road since the start of last season.
The last five Detroit games all went under the total.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-1), Sunday at 1 ET
Tennessee is 4-0 outright and ATS against teams that made the playoffs last season.
Indianapolis has covered four straight games.
Tennessee is 7-14-1 ATS in games with lines between +3 and -3 under Mike Vrabel (since 2018).
Los Angeles Rams (-14.5) at Houston Texans, Sunday at 1 ET
This is the second straight week Los Angeles is at least a 14-point favorite (-16.5 vs Detroit last season). Sean McVay is 0-2 ATS and 1-1 outright as a favorite of at least 14.5 points. Los Angeles is the second team in the last decade to be favored by at least 14.5 points in back-to-back games (2019 New England had two separate streaks).
Los Angeles was a 14-point favorite on the road at Arizona in 2018 (covered), but before that, it hadn't laid 14 points on the road since 1975. Los Angeles has not laid more than 14 points on the road since 1970.
Los Angeles is 0-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite since the start of last season, while Houston has failed to cover its last three games as a double-digit underdog.
Houston is the second team in the last 10 seasons to be a double-digit underdog five times in its first eight games (2019 Miami).
Houston has closed as more than a 10-point home underdog (10.5 or more points) three times in franchise history - all against Peyton Manning Indianapolis teams. The largest home underdog spread for Houston is 14.5 in 2005. The largest upset in Houston history, regardless of location, is a 14-point upset at Miami in Week 1 of 2003.
Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS all-time against Houston.
Cincinnati Bengals (-10.5) at New York Jets, Sunday at 1 ET
Cincinnati has not been favored by at least eight points under Zac Taylor (last time: 2017). Cincinnati has not been favored by at least nine points on the road since 2009, and it has not been favored by more than nine points on the road since the final game of the 1982 season.
New York has the worst average cover margin in the NFL (-9.9). New York had the 2nd-worst mark last season.
New York is 1-5 ATS this season, all as an underdog.
New York's last three games have gone over the total after the first three games all went under.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-3.5), Sunday at 1 ET
Ben Roethlisberger has faced Cleveland 27 times including the playoffs and has been favored in 25 of them entering this week (last time as underdog: 2014). He has never been more than a two-point underdog against Cleveland.
Since 2018, Ben Roethlisberger is 8-4 outright and 9-3 ATS as an underdog (2-1 SU and ATS this season).
Both Pittsburgh road games this season went under the total. Since 2015, the under is 37-12-1 in Pittsburgh road games.
Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in its last five games.
San Francisco 49ers (-4) at Chicago Bears, Sunday at 1 ET
San Francisco is 8-20-2 ATS as a favorite under Kyle Shanahan (16-14 outright).
All five Justin Fields starts have gone under the total.
San Francisco is 1-5 ATS this season.
Chicago is 1-4 ATS as an underdog this season.
Chicago games are 6-1 to the under this season, the highest under percentage in the NFL.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks (-3), Sunday at 4:05 ET
Geno Smith has covered seven straight starts dating back to 2014.
Geno Smith has been favored by more than three points once in his career (-5.5 vs Oakland in Week 1 of 2014, New York won by 5).
Jacksonville is coming off a bye while Seattle is on a short week after playing Monday. Since the NFL reinstated bye weeks in 1990, teams coming off a bye are 15-31-2 ATS against teams coming off Monday games (3-2 ATS last season).
New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5), Sunday at 4:05 ET
Los Angeles games are 5-1 to the under this season. Only Chicago has a higher under percentage (6-1).
New England is 6-0 ATS against Los Angeles since 2010, including the playoffs.
New England is 6-5 ATS as an underdog since Tom Brady left. Overall, Belichick is 196-140-6 ATS as an underdog with New England.
Justin Herbert is 8-2 ATS in his last 10 starts.
Washington Football Team at Denver Broncos (-3), Sunday at 4:25 ET
Washington is 1-6 ATS this season, worst in the NFL.
Washington is 0-4 ATS as an underdog and 0-3 ATS against the AFC West.
Denver has failed to cover four straight games after starting the season 3-0 ATS. It's the longest non-cover streak of Teddy Bridgewater's career. Bridgewater is 38-18 ATS in his career.
Denver is 3-0 ATS against teams with losing records this season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) at New Orleans Saints, Sunday at 4:25 ET
New Orleans has not been a home underdog of at least four points since 2017 against New England, led by Tom Brady. It's just the third time under Sean Payton that New Orleans has been a four-point home underdog.
New Orleans is 9-5 outright and 11-3 ATS as a home underdog under Payton.
Tampa Bay is 0-3 ATS on the road this season.
New Orleans is 10-2 ATS as an underdog since 2018.
The over is 11-2 in Tampa Bay division games since 2019, including 6-1 with Tom Brady.
Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) at Minnesota Vikings, Sunday at 8:20 ET
Dallas is the only team in the NFL undefeated against the spread (6-0). Last season, Dallas failed to cover its first eight games of the season. If Dallas covers again this week, they would tie 2018 Kansas City for the longest streak to begin a season in the last 10 seasons.
Dallas games are 5-1 to the over, the highest over percentage in the NFL. Four straight games have gone over the total.
All three Minnesota home games have gone under the total this season.
The over is 5-0 when Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott face each other.
Kirk Cousins is 8-15-1 ATS in primetime games, though he is 5-2 ATS in Sunday night games.
New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5), Monday at 8:15 ET
Kansas City is the first preseason Super Bowl favorite to be below .500 this late into the season since 2012 Seattle (4-5). The last preseason betting favorite to miss the playoffs was 2008 New England.
Kansas City is the ninth team in the Super Bowl era (since 1966) to have a losing record through seven games despite being favored in all seven games. Out of the previous eight, only 1985 San Francisco made the playoffs, and none won a playoff game.
Kansas City is 0-3 ATS at home this season.
Daniel Jones is 10-3 ATS as a road underdog (3-10 SU).