The first round of the postseason featured multiple upsets, led by the Miami Heat stunning the Milwaukee Bucks as +750 underdogs. The Bucks entered the postseason as the betting favorites to win the NBA Championship. They are just the third favorite entering the playoffs to bow out in the first round since the 1976 ABA/NBA merger, joining the 2007 Dallas Mavericks and the 1994 Seattle SuperSonics.
The Bucks' exit leaves the Boston Celtics as the title favorites entering the conference semifinals. They covered all four meetings against their first-round opponent Philadelphia 76ers in the regular season.
While the Bucks are out, the other 1 seed is also favored to be eliminated in this round. The Nuggets are the first 1 seed to be an underdog in the conference semifinals since 2013. If Denver loses, the Conference Finals will be without both 1 seeds for the second time in the last three seasons (2021). Prior to 2021, that had not happened since 1994.
Phoenix Suns (-125) vs Denver Nuggets (+105)
The Nuggets are the fifth No. 1 seed in the last 35 seasons to be an underdog in the conference semifinals. The 2013 Thunder (+107) lost to the Grizzlies, while the 2003 Spurs (+130), 2003 Pistons (+125) and 1995 Magic (+165) all won their series as underdogs.
This is the first time since the 1990 Conference Finals that the Suns have been favored in a playoff series despite not having home-court advantage (-120 vs Portland Trail Blazers; lost in six games).
This is the second time under Michael Malone that the Nuggets have had home-court advantage and not been favored. They beat the Trail Blazers as +110 underdogs in the 1st round of 2021.
The teams split four regular-season meetings with the Nuggets going 3-1 ATS. However, due to players sitting out, betting lines ranged from Nuggets -14 on January 11th to Suns -13.5 in their last two meetings. It is the first season series in over 30 seasons where each team had a game where they were favored by at least 13 points.
Last season, the Suns lost as -295 series favorites against the Mavericks in the Conference Semifinals.
The Suns are 6-1 outright and ATS in Game 1's of playoff series under Monty Williams, though they lost outright as eight-point favorites against the Clippers this season.
The Nuggets are 47-39-1 ATS this season. They are 27-16-1 ATS at home and 20-23 ATS on the road. They are 33-32-1 ATS as a favorite and 13-7 ATS as an underdog. Unders are 45-40-2 in Nuggets games.
The Suns are 44-41-2 ATS this season. They are 23-20-1 ATS at home and 21-21-1 ATS on the road. They are 30-24-1 ATS as a favorite and 14-17-1 ATS as an underdog. Overs are 45-40-2 in Suns games.
Philadelphia 76ers (+240) vs Boston Celtics (-300)
Boston covered all four meetings during the regular season and five straight meetings dating back to last season.
Doc Rivers is 25-40 ATS in conference semifinal games (5-8 ATS with 76ers). Rivers is also 0-9 ATS in his last nine potential series-clinching games (0-7 outright and ATS since leaving the Celtics; all as a favorite).
The 76ers are 12-5 outright and ATS this season without Joel Embiid.
The Celtics have won five straight playoff series against the 76ers (last loss: 1982 Eastern Conference Finals). The Celtics are 15-6 ATS against the 76ers in their last four playoff series (since 2000).
The 76ers are 51-34-1 ATS this season, best in the NBA, including 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games. They are 27-16 ATS at home and 24-18-1 ATS on the road. They are 36-24-1 ATS as a favorite and 14-10 ATS as an underdog. Overs are 46-39-1 in 76ers games (1-3 in playoffs).
The Celtics are 48-38-2 ATS this season. They are 26-18 ATS at home and 22-20-2 ATS on the road. The Celtics are 38-37-2 ATS as a favorite (24-18 at home) and 9-1 ATS as an underdog. Overs are 46-41-1 in Celtics games this season (4-2 in playoffs). 14 of Boston's last 20 games have gone over the total.
Miami Heat (+135) vs New York Knicks (-160)
All five Knicks playoff games have gone under the total this season. Tom Thibodeau has been the Knicks coach for ten playoff games, with unders going 9-0-1.
The over/under is 207.5 as of Friday evening. The lowest regular-season total in the NBA this season was 209. 20.5 would be the third-lowest total all season, behind Games 4 and 5 of the Knicks-Cavaliers first-round series. The Heat also had a total of 209 in their play-in win over the Chicago Bulls.
In 29 all-time playoff meetings, the over/under has never been higher than 187, and the most points in any Heat-Knicks playoff meeting is 200 (Game 5 of 2012 1st Round).
This is the second time in the last 25 seasons that the Knicks are playoff favorites in the second round or later. They lost as -190 favorites against the Pacers in the 2013 Eastern Conference Semifinals. The last time they won a series in the second round or later as a favorite was the 1994 East Finals, when they beat the Pacers in seven as -200 favorites.
Since LeBron James left the Heat after the 2014 season, Erik Spoelstra is 10-2 ATS in Game 1's of playoff series.
The Heat are 36-50-3 ATS this season. They are 17-25-3 ATS at home and 19-25 ATS on the road. They are also 21-34-3 ATS as a favorite (12-21-3 ATS as home favorite) and 15-14 ATS as an underdog. Overs are 45-43-1 in Heat games this season, including 5-0 in the playoffs.
The Knicks are 48-35-4 ATS this season. They are 21-20-2 ATS at home and 27-15-2 ATS on the road. The Knicks are 25-16-2 ATS as a favorite this season and 22-17-2 ATS as an underdog. Overs are 44-42-1 in Knicks games this season but 0-5 in the playoffs.
Los Angeles Lakers (+145) vs Golden State Warriors (-165)
The Warriors have been favored in all 25 series under Steve Kerr entering this series. The current price of -165 would only be the second series under Kerr where the Warriors are less than a -200 favorite. They were -145 against the Celtics in last year's NBA Finals and won the series.
Stephen Curry is 25-17 outright and ATS in his career against LeBron James with both players in the lineup. Curry will now have been favored in all five series he has had against James. Since leaving Miami, James will have been an underdog in seven playoff series with five of those series coming against the Warriors.
This will be the fourth time James has been an underdog in the Conference Semifinals (1-2 in previous three instances) and just the second time in the last decade (swept Raptors as +165 underdogs in 2018).
The Lakers were 3-1 outright and ATS against the Warriors this season (1-1 with James and Anthony Davis in the lineup). All three Lakers wins went over and the lone Warriors win went under the total.
Since 2011, the Lakers are 3-14 ATS and 2-15 outright as playoff underdogs (1-3 outright and ATS since signing James).
The Warriors are 42-46-1 ATS this season. They are 28-15-1 ATS at home (best in NBA) and 14-31 ATS on the road (worst in NBA). The .311 road ATS percentage is the third-worst mark of any team in the last 30 seasons. They are 30-31-1 ATS as favorites and 11-15 ATS as underdogs. Overs are 48-39-2 in Warriors games.
The Lakers are 44-43-1 ATS this season, including 24-20 ATS at home and 20-23-1 ATS on the road. They are 18-18 ATS as favorites and 25-24-2 ATS as underdogs. Overs are 45-44 in Lakers games. The Lakers are 22-20-1 ATS with both LeBron James and Anthony Davis in the lineup (overs are 24-19).