The first round of the playoffs had one of the biggest upsets in NBA history, with the No. 8-seeded Miami Heat upsetting the No. 1 Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks entered the playoffs -1200 to win the series and favorites to win it all.
Even after the Heat got off to a 2-1 start with Giannis Antetokounmpo largely sidelined, the expectation was that if Giannis returned the Bucks would come back to win.
Giannis returned with two big statistical games and the Bucks held double-digit leads in the fourth quarters of Games 4 and 5, but Jimmy Butler exploded for 98 total points in those two games, including 37 across the two fourth quarters and Game 5 overtime to lead the Heat to the improbable victory.
The first round has also delivered significant injuries that could affect the second round of the playoffs and beyond. MVP favorite Joel Embiid missed the last game of the 76ers' sweep of the Nets with a sprained knee and was described as being "50-50" to start the second round. His health will be a primary factor in the upcoming series between the 76ers and the Celtics, the two highest-rated teams in the NBA according to ESPN's BPI when the playoffs began.
The Knicks defeated the Cavaliers in five games with Julius Randle still hobbled by a sprained ankle. He re-sprained that ankle in Game 5; the severity of the injury has not been reported, so it is unclear what his status will be entering their series against the Heat.
Futures value
Philadelphia 76ers to win NBA championship
I had the Bucks as the favorite to win the championship, but I've long had the Bucks, Celtics and 76ers as the three best teams in the NBA overall.
The 76ers have trailed the other two teams in championship odds by a larger margin than I would expect through much of the season and the entire playoff process, which has consistently made them value picks in this space over the past several months.
The 76ers remain a value pick, with the fourth-best odds to win the title, according to Caesars, at +650, well behind the Celtics (+165) and trailing the Suns (+425) and Warriors (+500) as well.
The 76ers currently measure as the No. 1 team in the NBA, according to BPI, with a +11 score, slightly ahead of the Celtics (+10.4) and significantly ahead of the third-place team (Knicks, +7.3).
Interesting side note, the top three teams according to BPI currently all come from the Atlantic Division. In my first postseason futures article of the postseason, one of my picks was the Atlantic Division as the championship-winning division (+200).
The 76ers' odds to win will obviously hinge on the health of Embiid (knee). His availability for the second round is unclear, but he did get some extra days of rest because the Celtics lost Game 5 to the Hawks and extended their series until Thursday night.
Their second round series will begin Monday.
Winner of Grizzlies vs. Lakers to win the NBA championship
In the wake of the Bucks' loss, my other value plays to win the championship come from the Western Conference. In my first postseason futures article, I picked the winner of the Grizzlies vs. Lakers as value to win the Western Conference.
I still have the winner of that series as my favorite to win the West, and I think either team would also have a strong chance against whoever comes out of the East. The Grizzlies and Lakers are two of the three highest-ranked teams in the West, according to BPI, and rank fourth and sixth overall among remaining teams.
Meanwhile, according to Caesars, they have the sixth-best odds (Lakers, +1200) and ninth-best odds (Grizzlies, +6000) to win the championship.
The Grizzlies have extremely long-shot odds after once trailing their series with the Lakers 3-1, but are only a Game 6 upset away from being back in the driver's seat with the home-court advantage.
The Lakers, meanwhile, were my preseason pick to make the Western Conference Finals and I picked them to come out of the West in several late-season futures predictions, and with the way their team has come together since getting healthy they are still my favorite to represent the West in the Finals.
I think both teams have the combination of strong interior play (Lakers), strong defense (both teams), dynamic offensive playmakers (both teams) and depth that would make them extremely challenging to any of the remaining teams in the Western Conference and strong matchups against the eventual East representative.
Series matchups
Denver Nuggets +1.5 games over Phoenix Suns (-160)
I picked Suns in six in the ESPN writers' prediction, but that's because the Nuggets have home-court advantage so it made sense to either pick Nuggets in seven or Suns in six (closing out the series on their home courts). But, analytically, I have the series as close to a toss-up.
The Suns have the advantage in the starting lineups, with two mega-elite offense-creating wings, in Devin Booker and Kevin Durant, who pose extreme challenges to how the Nuggets defend.
The Nuggets just allowed Anthony Edwards to average more than 30 PPG on the wing for the series and Karl-Anthony Towns to average 23.3 PPG in the final three games of the series, which were all competitive.
Booker and Durant both represent upgrades at their respective positions that the Nuggets will struggle to have answers for. Also, both Booker and Durant, along with point guard Chris Paul, are elite at running the pick-and-roll/pop as the ball handlers with Deandre Ayton as the pick-and-roll man. They are likely to run this set often, forcing Nikola Jokic into non-advantageous positions on the regular.
On the other hand, the Nuggets have the advantage at center with two-time MVP Jokic and they also have a depth and home-court advantage that could prove pivotal against the thin, older Suns.
Booker, 34-year-old Durant and 37-year old Paul combined to miss 87 games this season because of injury, but the Suns' bench is so thin that the three have had to play huge playoffs minutes even against a Clippers squad missing its two best players (Kawhi Leonard and Paul George) for most of their series. Durant has averaged 43.8 MPG, Booker 43.2 MPG and Paul 38.6 MPG thus far.
The Nuggets play at altitude, which is challenging on the stamina, and if they can force the Suns to continue playing such big minutes it could play in the Nuggets' favor as the series extends.
The Nuggets rank as the better team, according to BPI, and they also have home-court advantage. But the Suns are the betting favorites. That's why you could get Nuggets +1.5 games at so close to even money. With the hedge of that 1.5 games in a toss-up series, I like the Nuggets to cover.
Miami Heat (+135) over New York Knicks
The Knicks were clearly the better of the two teams in the regular season as their relative BPI scores reflect, but two factors play heavily in the Heat's favor coming into this series.
First, the Randle injury. Randle and Jalen Brunson were the Knicks' main one-two punch all season, but Randle hasn't been himself in the playoffs because of the ankle injury, and after the re-aggravation I am less confident that he will be himself this series... if he's available at all.
The Knicks were able to defeat the Cavaliers anyway, in large part by playing stingy defense and taking advantage of the Cavaliers' inexperience at postseason basketball. The Knicks were clearly the more physical team, controlling the paint and pushing the Cavaliers out of their comfort zone. I don't believe they will have the same advantage against the veteran, playoffs-tested Heat with leaders Butler, Bam Adebayo and Kyle Lowry.
This segues to the second big Heat advantage coming in: Butler is in his mode. Call him "Playoffs Jimmy" if you like. Embiid calls him "Himmy Butler." Whatever your moniker of choice, Butler has been arguably the best player of the playoffs so far, a level he's reached in three of the past four playoffs. In the previous elite playoffs runs, he led the Heat to the Eastern Conference Finals last season and the NBA Finals in 2020.
With those two factors, I think the Heat should be at least toss-ups, if not slight favorites over the Knicks. So, being able to get them at plus-money makes them value to win this series.