The NHL doesn't have an official source for starting goaltender announcements. There aren't any rules, aside from the immediate leadup to puck drop via lineup cards as to who will start.
That said, the evolution of the probable and confirmed starters on social media across the past 15 years has been impressive. Today, there exists an ecosystem in which the news oftentimes comes out well ahead of gametime. Some sites even archive this information with sources of the news.
That will be helpful as we wonder whether the announcement of a backup goaltender's appearance can move the lines.
Now, there are a lot of factors to consider in this question that, frankly, are nearly impossible to answer. Chief among them is whether lines move because of an internal sportsbook decision or because of how much action one side is getting or a combination of both. Beyond that, there are many other factors to consider when a backup goaltender gets the nod: Are they that much of a downgrade from the starter? Is the matchup tasty enough to not matter? How much lead time came with the confirmation? Does the opposition's goaltending choice also play a role?
It's quite a mess of factors, so this is a 15,000-foot view.
The Dallas Stars are likely going to confirm Jake Oettinger for Tuesday's matchup with the Carolina Hurricanes, as backup Casey DeSmith got the nod in a back-to-back set for the Stars on the weekend. But Dallas is one of the few teams for which this framing works, as the number of teams that have a clear starter and clear backup is dwindling with the reliance on tandems. Only eight teams (including the Stars) have a goaltender who starts more than 70% of their games, and another seven teams have one above 65%.
So how have the lines progressed in some of the 12 games DeSmith has started this season?
Let's follow his season. DeSmith's first game was Oct. 13 against the Seattle Kraken. The Stars opened as -200 favorites on ESPNBET. The confirmation tweet saved on LeftWingLock from a Dallas Morning News reporter on X occurred the day prior to the matchup, so bettors had almost 36 hours to contemplate the situation. The line slipped from -200 to close at -170 by puck drop.
However, DeSmith went out and posted a shutout against the Kraken, and then reeled off solid showings in his next three starts that settled the line movement on his appearances. In fact, when he was confirmed at noon on Nov. 18 for a start against the Anaheim Ducks, the line for the Stars moved from -400 to -450 by gametime.
But DeSmith struggled, allowing four goals to the Ducks and then six goals to the Blackhawks in his next game. That seemed to sour bettors by the time his next start rolled around. On Dec. 2, he was confirmed by the Dallas Stars staff writer in the middle of the afternoon. A Stars line that started at -140 in the morning, fell to -125 by puck drop.
DeSmith had a quality outing in that game, followed by four more quality outings to bring us to this past Saturday, when he started against the Colorado Avalanche. The Stars were the underdogs in this one from the start and DeSmith's presence wasn't announced until just a couple of hours until game time. The line moved positively, if only slightly from +115 to +105.
To put a bow on DeSmith's campaign thus far, he then allowed six goals to the Avs. Given the reaction for him in previous outings following a rough one, we should expect the Stars favor to fall on his confirmation for his next game.
But what about the results?
The moneyline for the Stars only hit on six of DeSmith's 12 starts and they beat the spread in only four of 12. Specifically, they are 5-5 on the moneyline as the favorite with DeSmith starting and 1-1 as the underdog. Given that, overall this season, the Stars are 27-13 as the favorite and 2-4 as underdogs, there is some evidence to avoid the Stars when DeSmith gets the nod.
Fortunately, that does not look like it will be the case on Tuesday.
Featured game
Carolina Hurricanes at Dallas Stars
8 p.m., American Airlines Center
Stars (-1.5, +180), -130 money line
Hurricanes (+1.5, -235), +110 money line
Total 5.5: (Over -125, Under +105)
Latest odds as of publication. For latest odds movement, go to ESPN BET.
The Hurricanes blow into Dallas having just escaped the Windy City -- narrowly -- with a victory on Monday evening. Fredrik Andersen made his return to the crease for Carolina after months away, so we know we'll see Pyotr Kochetkov back in net. Roope Hintz comes in questionable for the Stars, while Mason Marchment is still expected out for the week, so Dallas has a tightened top six.
The Hurricanes have only been underdogs four times on the road this season, splitting both the moneyline and puck line 2-2 on those occasions. The Stars have commanded at home, 16-6 on the moneyline as favorites and 13-9 against the spread (which is very good considering the league average is 40.2% ATS).
The total might be something to attack here, as the Stars help drive a lot of unders this season. First off, they are 70.8% under at home (league average 54.1%), and secondly they are 68.0% under on 5.5 totals (league average is 48.4%). As seen above, this is a Stars home game with a 5.5 total. For their part, the Canes are right on the league averages for over/under on the road and at 5.5 totals.
Especially with the Hurricanes on the second leg of a road back-to-back, let's take the Stars spread at -1.5 (+180) and the under total at 5.5 (+105) for a tidy parlay.
For props, both teams limit shots on goal by forwards, ranking 28th (Dallas) and 29th (Carolina) for shots per game by forwards. Martin Necas under 2.5 shots (-190) or Logan Stankoven under 2.5 shots (-200) stand out as options.
Betting trends
Some of the other clear backup goaltenders have much stronger swings to the lines associated with their starts.
When it's not Juuse Saros in the Nashville Predators net, confidence sinks in the Predators side of the moneyline. Some examples include Oct. 26 (-270 opening to -195 by puck drop) and Nov. 7 (+160 to +180) back when Scott Wedgewood was the backup, but also more recently with Justus Annunen on Jan. 4 (opened as -120 favorites, closed as +110 dogs) and Jan. 14 (-105 to +115). The Preds are 5-5 on the moneyline for non-Saros games and 6-4 against the spread.
We might just see Annunen against the Sharks on Tuesday given the recent start trends for the Predators. It's worth watching to see if a confirmation comes for the backup whether the Predators -360 starts to sink as puck drop approaches. Certainly that low payout isn't going to game-change any parlays, but it's an example of the potential situation we are looking at here.
The Winnipeg Jets are another example, with Eric Comrie confirmed starts showing sinking confidence as the game approaches in virtually every case. Sure enough, the Jets are 3-8 on the moneyline for Comrie starts. The confidence also drops in the Boston Bruins when Joonas Korpisalo gets the nod.
But the backup's results as compared to the starter has an impact on this. Bettors' confidence in the Edmonton Oilers actually tends to improve in games when Calvin Pickard is in net. Since the team is 11-4 on the moneyline when he is in the crease, that confidence is warranted.
Some backups don't seem to impact the odds. When Jake Allen starts, there is no trend for line movement for the New Jersey Devils. That may change if the team continues to be 5-9 on the moneyline when he starts. About half of Joel Hofer's starts for the St. Louis Blues show confidence rising, and the other half show it dropping. The team is 10-5 on the moneyline with Hofer getting the nod. The Tampa Bay Lightning have little line movement when Jonas Johansson is the starter. They are 5-5 on the moneyline.
So what to make of all of this?
Well, some of the time, when a backup goaltender is a clear step down from the starter and when the confirmation is made early enough, there tends to be some line movement that shows decreased confidence (which is a better payout) for the team. But as we see from the results, a lot of that decreased confidence is very much warranted. The backups don't tend to have a great track record for victory, which is probably why they are the backup.
There are two situational takeaways here, even if the overall trends are fuzzy at best.
If you are confident in a team winning a certain game regardless of whether the backup starts, you could use this sinking confidence trend to wait to place the wager, thus improving your payout odds.
If you are on the fence about a game and see the backup confirmed, you should consider shying away from the bet.