The 2024 college football bowl season is here, as is the excitement, drama and unpredictability that bettors crave.
As we dive into the first slate of games, there are a few key strategies to keep in mind. Player movement through the transfer portal is already shaking up rosters, and while some players who have entered the portal might still suit up, last-minute opt-outs and lineup changes can greatly impact outcomes. Be sure to read my bowl game betting guide for tips on navigating these tricky waters.
For now, I'm previewing five matchups to give you a comprehensive look at the start of bowl season. But as the options expand, I'll shift focus to games with the strongest betting value.
All odds are accurate as of time stamp. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.
Boca Raton Bowl
Western Kentucky vs. James Madison (-7.5, 52.5)
Wednesday, 5:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
Western Kentucky's defense is fresh off an absolute meltdown against Jacksonville State in which they surrendered a jaw-dropping 386 rushing yards and five touchdowns on the ground. If that performance was any indication, the Hilltoppers might be in for another long day against James Madison's elite rushing attack.
JMU's ground game has been a well-oiled machine, rankings 17th in rush offense success rate and 21st in run block grade, per PFF. Against a WKU defense that's more of a revolving door than a brick wall, the Dukes are primed to unleash a rushing assault. If Jacksonville State ran wild, imagine what a disciplined and efficient JMU offense could do. They might not just match, but could potentially exceed those gaudy numbers!
Adding insult to injury for WKU, the transfer portal could potentially gut its roster. Key players such as starting QB Caden Veltkamp, former starter and backup QB TJ Finley and WR2 Easton Messer have entered the portal, leaving a cloud of uncertainty over the Hilltoppers' offensive game plan. Even if they suit up, the disruption and lack of continuity could be too much to overcome against a James Madison squad hungry to make a statement.
For JMU, this matchup is about redemption. After closing the regular season with back-to-back losses, the Dukes will be laser-focused on ending their campaign with authority.
Betting the over on the game total also looks promising. James Madison's offense should put up plenty points, while WKU's need to play catch-up could lead to big plays -- or costly mistakes that still result in scoring. Either way, expect the scoreboard operator to stay busy in this one.
Pam's picks: James Madison -7.5, Over 52.5 points
Art of Sport LA Bowl
California (-3, 51.5) vs. No. 24 UNLV
Wednesday, 9 p.m. ET on ESPN
Cal's defense might look impressive on paper (15th in rushing yards allowed), but dig a little deeper and it's clear that stat comes with a big asterisk. Out of the Golden Bears' 12 games this season, only one opponent ranked inside the top 40 in rushing yards, leaving their run defense largely untested against legitimate rushing offenses.
Enter UNLV's rushing attack, one of the most efficient and relentless in the nation. The Rebels are 21st in rushing offense success rate and a blistering seventh in rushing yards per game, making them a matchup nightmare for a Cal defense that hasn't faced anything close to this level of firepower.
Cal's vulnerability against the run was exposed in its matchup against Syracuse, a team ranked 126th in the FBS in rushing. Despite Syracuse's struggles, the Orange managed to gash the Golden Bears for 147 rushing yards while controlling the ball for a staggering 39 minutes. Now, imagine what a team like UNLV, with its dynamic rushing attack, can do in terms of clock control and wearing down that defense.
Cal's offensive situation isn't much better. It heads into this game without leading wide receiver Nyziah Hunter, who has entered the transfer portal, and starting left tackle Nick Morrow, whose absence could be disastrous against a UNLV pass rush that is 11th in sacks per game. A depleted receiving corps and weakened offensive line leaves Cal vulnerable against a Rebels defense that knows how to apply pressure. Not to mention that Cal starting quarterback Fernando Mndoze is also expected to enter the transfer portal. For a team that is 15th in passing offense, potentially missing a quarterback and receiver seems notable.
With UNLV's ability to dominate the ground game, dictate the tempo and capitalize on Cal's offensive setbacks, the +3 spread feels like a gift. The Rebels are built to control this game from start to finish, and don't be surprised if they come away with the outright win.
Pam's pick: UNLV +3
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Georgia Southern (-7, 46.5) vs. Sam Houston
Thursday, Dec. 19, 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2
Sam Houston enters this matchup with a formula built for disruption: the 26th-ranked team in rushing yards and 17th-best team in the nation in time of possession. If the Bearkats can keep Georgia Southern's high-powered offense off the field, they'll have the upper hand in dictating the flow of this bowl clash.
But there's a caveat. Sam Houston's offense has struggled in the red zone, rankings 117th in red zone attempts and 99th in total touchdowns. Add to this the uncertainty surrounding star running back Jay Ducker, who is in the transfer portal but reportedly expected to suit up. These offensive inefficiencies signal a likely low-scoring affair, where every possession will matter.
The real strength of the Bearkats lies in their stout defense. Ranked 16th in EPA/Pass, Sam Houston is tailor-made to counter Georgia Southern's pass-heavy offense. The Bearkats excel at limiting explosive plays (15th in passing plays of 10+ yards allowed) and an elite third in passing plays of 20+ yards allowed. Georgia Southern thrives on stretching the field, but Sam Houston's ability to contain those deep shots could stifle its rhythm and scoring opportunities.
Sam Houston's defensive toughness doesn't stop there. The Bearkats have consistently shut down opposing offenses, ranking 24th in touchdowns allowed. Combine that with their clock-control capabilities, and this game could see Georgia Southern struggling to find its usual offensive groove.
This bowl game is also a statement opportunity for Sam Houston, which is completing just its second season as an FBS program. The motivation to prove they belong at this level, coupled with the Bearkats' ability to neutralize Georgia Southern's strengths, makes getting the points on the spread an attractive play. Don't rule out the potential for an outright win, either.
With Sam Houston's defensive strength and methodical game plan, this matchup screams lower scoring. Expect a tightly contested battle where the Bearkats cover the spread.
Pick: Sam Houston +7
Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl
No. 25 Memphis (-3. 56.5) vs. West Virginia
Tuesday, 9 p.m. ET on ESPN
The Tigers roar into this matchup with one of the most explosive offenses in college football, rankings ninth in total yards and 20th in net EPA/Drive. At the heart of their attack is electrifying running back Mario Anderson Jr., who has been nothing short of a nightmare for opposing defenses all season.
Anderson's résumé speaks for itself: 17 rushing touchdowns (seventh in the nation) and 12th in rushing yards (1,292). His uncanny ability to bulldoze through defenders and convert in high-pressure situations will be key against a Mountaineers defense that has been alarmingly porous in short-yardage scenarios. West Virginia is 130th in third- and fourth-down success rate allowed, making this a prime opportunity for Anderson to shine yet again. That said, keep an eye on Anderson as a potential opt-out.
But Memphis isn't just about the ground-and-pound. Quarterback Seth Henigan adds a lethal dimension to their offense, standing as one of the American Conference's best signal-callers. Henigan is second in passing yards and third in passing touchdowns in the conference, setting the stage for fireworks through the air. And here's the kicker: West Virginia's secondary has been a disaster, sitting at dead last in EPA/pass and 129th in defensive success against the pass.
With a balanced offensive arsenal and a Mountaineers defense full of holes, Memphis has all the tools to dictate the tempo. The Tigers can dominate time of possession, exploit mismatches and limit West Virginia's offensive opportunities.
Pam's pick: Memphis -3. Line closed at Memphis -5.5. Memphis won 42-37.
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
South Alabama (-7, 57.5) vs. Western Michigan
Saturday, 9 p.m.ET on ESPN
Western Michigan leans heavily on a ground game that ranks 28th in rushing play percentage and 49th in rushing yards per game. This run-first philosophy is tailor-made to exploit South Alabama's recent struggles against the run. Just ask Ohio and Texas State, who combined for 482 rushing yards and six touchdowns against the Jaguars.