It's a clash of two top-ten teams in the Big House as the defending champion No. 10 Michigan Wolverines welcome the No. 3 Texas Longhorns. Both of these teams made the College Football Playoff last season and they each have their sights set on returning to the 12-team edition this season.
Texas opened with an emphatic 52-0 victory over Colorado State in their season opener while Michigan never trailed in their 30-10 win over Fresno State. This game marks the first time Michigan is a home underdog since beating Ohio State in 2021, as Texas is currently a 7.5 point favorite.
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
Spread: Texas (-7.5)
Moneyline: Texas (-280), Michigan (+230)
Over/Under: 42.5
First-half spread: Texas -4.5 (-105), Michigan +4.5 (-115)
First-half moneyline: Texas (-250), Michigan (+190)
Pick of the game: Under 42.5
This line has seen some major movement since opening at 45.5 earlier in the week. The matchup highlights the defensive strengths of both teams. Texas boasted the third-best rushing defense last season, holding opponents to 82 yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry. Though top linebacker Jaylan Ford has moved on to the NFL, the Longhorns retained depth at the position and it remains a strong unit. Going off what we saw in Week 1 from the Wolverines, Michigan's running game was relatively subdued. The team rushed for 148 yards and its backs only produced three runs of 10-plus yards, two of which came on back-to-back plays in the fourth quarter. Michigan's inability to break long runs or consistently move the chains contributed to the overall sluggishness the offense.
If Texas can neutralize the run game, the pressure will fall on Michigan quarterback Davis Warren to deliver. In his first career start, Warren's inexperience was evident as he struggled to create explosive plays and maintain consistency, completing 15 of 25 passes for 118 yards with one touchdown and one interception.
While Quinn Ewers is a talented quarterback, Michigan's defense will present one of his toughest challenges. The Wolverines allowed the fewest touchdowns in 2023, conceding only eight all season. Although the Longhorns scored 52 points against a lowly Colorado State defense that ranked 99th in points allowed last year, Michigan could present a bigger challenge. Last year, Texas struggled with red zone efficiency, ranking 120th in touchdown conversion rate. These issues could resurface against Michigan. Consider taking the under up to 40.
Betting trends:
Courtesy ESPN Stats & Info.
The Longhorns have the fifth-shortest odds to make the College Football Playoff at -260.
Michigan is 5-0 ATS against ranked teams and 4-0 ATS against top-10 teams since last season.
The under has hit in each of Texas' last 4 road games; The under is 12-3-1 in Michigan home games since the start of 2022.
Michigan is the seventh reigning champion in the last 45 years to be a home underdog at any point the following season (2020 LSU, 2011 Auburn, 1998 Michigan, 1997 Florida, 1988 Miami, 1983 Penn State). They would be the fourth reigning champion to be at least a seven-point underdog the following season in that span.