Week 5 of the NFL season concludes with a "Monday Night Football" matchup featuring Patrick Mahomes' 4-0 Kansas City Chiefs, who are looking to keep pace with the Minnesota Vikings as the only two undefeated teams in the league, hosting Derek Carr, Alvin Kamara and the New Orleans Saints (2-2), who are looking to get back to their winning ways after dropping two in a row. The line for the game opened at -5 at ESPN BET and hasn't moved since with a current total of 43.5 points.
Betting analyst Seth Walder gives his favorite bets for Saints-Chiefs, and you'll also find betting trends provided by ESPN Research.
Odds current as of publish time. For the most up-to-date lines, go to ESPN BET
Game lines
Spread: Chiefs (-5)
Money line: Chiefs (-240), Saints (+200)
Over/Under: 43.5
First-half spread: Chiefs -3.5 (Even), Saints +3.5 (-130)
First-half money line: Chiefs (-190), Saints (+150)
Chiefs total points: O/U 23.5 (-125/-105)
Saints total points: O/U 18.5 (-125/-105)
The props
Passing
Patrick Mahomes total passing yards: O/U: 224.5 yards (-140/+110)
Derek Carr total passing yards: O/U: 199.5 yards (-145, +115)
Mahomes total passing TDs: O/U: 1.5 TDs (-115/-115)
Rushing
Alvin Kamara total rushing yards: O/U 69.5 (+110/-140)
Kareem Hunt total rushing yards: O/U 44.5 (-105/-125)
Mahomes total rushing yards: O/U 19.5 (+105/-135)
Receiving
Travis Kelce total receiving yards: O/U 59.5 (-115/-125)
Rashid Shaheed total receiving yards: O/U 49.5 (-105/-125)
Chris Olave total receiving yards: O/U 59.5 (-115/-125)
Xavier Worthy total receiving yards: O/U 44.5 (Even/-130)
Kamara total receiving yards: O/U 34.5 (-105/-125)
Justin Watson total receiving yards: O/U 24.5 (-120/-110)
Noah Gray total receiving yards: O/U 29.5 (-130/Even)
Juwan Johnson total receiving yards: O/U 14.5 (+110/-140)
Samaje Perine total receiving yards: O/U 14.5 (-130/Even)
JuJu Smith-Schuster total receiving yards: O/U 14.5 (-135/+105)
Foster Moreau total receiving yards: O/U 14.5 (-145/-130)
Hunt total receiving yards: O/U 14.5 (Even/-130)
Seth Walder's picks for the game
Demario Davis under 8.5 tackles + assists (-110)
There are two reasons why the tackle model is way under on Davis, projecting just 6.8 combined tackles for the linebacker on Monday night: The first is playing time concerns. Davis has dropped down from a nearly every snap player to playing 86% of the time this year. Plus, he's returning from a hamstring injury that kept him out in Week 4. The Saints might give the veteran a few plays off here or there and even if it results in one fewer tackle in expectation, that makes a big difference. Davis also doesn't generate tackles at a huge rate. He has made tackles on 11% of plays over the past two years, below the 14% average we'd expect for an inside linebacker.
Will Harris over 3.5 tackles + assists (-135)
Harris is all over the field, playing safety most of the time but also aligning sometimes in the slot and even occasionally as an outside corner or inside linebacker. Though it hasn't necessarily translated to huge tackle numbers this year (he has 14 tackles in four games and has gone over this line twice), being closer to the line of scrimmage at times surely boosts his tackle opportunities. As does the most important factor: he doesn't leave the field. He has played 100% of the snaps this season. My model forecasts him for just over 4.5 tackles + assists and if anything, I think it is underestimating him given that it still considers last year, when he barely played.
Jaylen Watson under 4.5 tackles + assists (-115)
Watson has generated tackles on 10% of his defensive snaps this season, the 11th-highest rate for an outside corner with at least 80 snaps played. But this is a tougher matchup for him to rack them up. The Saints run the ball at the highest rate in the league (55%) -- still true if we exclude situations where they are very likely to win or lose, I should note -- and each time they do Watson has a lower chance to record a tackle and it keeps the clock moving. Plus, Watson didn't post high tackle rates in 2023, so there's also some chance his 2024 numbers are at least partially noise. My model forecasts him for 3.9 tackles + assists, so this isn't a crazy difference from the market, but it's at least a strong lean.
Betting trends
Courtesy ESPN Research
The Saints are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 prime-time games. Derek Carr is 0-5 ATS in his last five prime-time games (0-3 ATS with Saints)
Patrick Mahomes is 6-10 ATS in prime-time games at home.
The Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as road underdogs. They are 16-6 ATS in that role since 2018 and 29-13 ATS since 2014.
Since 2021, unders are 11-1 when the Saints have extra rest (8-1 under Dennis Allen).
Derek Carr is 34-23 ATS in his career when getting at least four points (1-1 ATS with Saints).
Underdogs of at least five points are 18-4 ATS this season (11-11 outright).
Prime-time unders are 78-49-1 over the last three seasons (8-7 this season)