One of college football's most historic feuds will be added to the long list of SEC rivalries Saturday as No. 1 Texas Longhorns face No. 18 Oklahoma Sooners in the Red River Rivalry from the Cotton Bowl in Dallas (3:30 p.m. on ABC/ESPN+).
The Longhorns got some positive news Monday when coach Steve Sarkisian announced that QB Quinn Ewers would be ready to start in the game after missing the past two games with an oblique injury. Meanwhile the Sooners, enter Saturday afternoon with a new QB at the helm. Freshman Michael Hawkins Jr., who played over Sophomore Jackson Arnold in Oklahoma's Week 5 win over Auburn Tigers, is set to start. The line opened at Texas -14.5 and has stayed the same throughout the week with the total also steady at 50.5 Sunday.
The Longhorns lead the series entering Saturday 63-51-5.
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
The lines
Spread: Texas (-14.5)
Moneyline: Texas (-650), Oklahoma (+475)
Over/under: 50.5
First-half spread: Texas -7.5 (-105), Oklahoma +7.5 (-115)
First-half moneyline: Texas (-475), Oklahoma (+320)
First-half total points: O/U 25.5 points (-115, -115)
Pamela Maldonado's pick: Texas-Oklahoma UNDER 50.5 points
Oklahoma ranks 25th in total defense. This team is stacked with players who excel at creating turnovers, pressuring quarterbacks, and making crucial stops. R Mason Thomas leads a pass-rush unit graded seventh by PFF, which has generated 18 total sacks (tied for fifth most) and 13 total turnovers (tied for third most).
Quarterback Quinn Ewers returns from injury to start for Texas, potentially facing rust after a monthlong absence. This could prompt Oklahoma to drop more players into coverage and focus on confusing Ewers with different looks rather than relying heavily on blitzes. Ewers has thrown two interceptions in his three games played so the Longhorns might adjust their game plan to rely more on the run game or quick, short passes to minimize risk. Both strategies could contribute to a slower tempo and a methodical style of offense that favors the under.
Oklahoma's offense lacks explosiveness, ranking 123rd in offensive success rate. Quarterbacks Jackson Arnold and Michael Hawkins Jr. have combined for only two passes over 20 yards, while the seven running backs have generated just 22 explosive runs, with Jovantate Barnes accounting for seven of those.
I expect both defenses to play a key role in keeping the total under 49, similar to what we saw in Oklahoma's game against Tennessee. If forced to pick a side, I'd lean toward Texas -14 or pass. The Sooners' offense simply lacks the playmakers to compete effectively.
Betting trends
Courtesy ESPN Research
Texas enters Saturday as a double-digit favorite over Oklahoma for the third time since 1978 (-21 in 1996, -14 in 2005).
Oklahoma is a 14-point underdog for first time since 2018 CFP Semifinal (+15 vs No. 1 Alabama).
A total of 49.5 points would be the lowest O/U in this matchup since 2014 (46.5). The over has hit in three of the past four meetings.